Evaluation and Prediction of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Dongting Lake Area Based on County Unit and DWM-BP Neural Network Model

Abstract

Evaluation of water resource carrying capacity is one of the methods used to measure the degree of realization of resource and environmental planning. This study takes 26 county-level units in the Dongting Lake area of Hunan Province as the evaluation object and screens 22 indicators for the evaluation of water resource carrying capacity. The comprehensive weight of the water resources carrying capacity of the Dongting Lake area is calculated using double weight methods (DWM) based on the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and the entropy weighting method. And then, the back propagation (BP) neural network is used to predict the evolution of the alarm situation of the water resources carrying capacity. The results show the following: (1) In terms of time trend, the water resources carrying capacity of Dongting Lake area is generally stable and is between overload and critical state, but the change trends of water resources carrying capacity of each county are very different; (2) in terms of spatial distribution, the water resources carrying capacity in the western and southern regions of the Dongting Lake area is relatively high, while that in the Yueyang urban area in the eastern region is relatively low, showing a pattern of “high in the west and low in the east”; (3) among the criterion layers, the water resources support force has the highest weight and the smallest change, and the economic support force has the largest change in weight. The decline of water resources carrying capacity is closely related to the speed of economic development; (4) by 2025, the water resources carrying capacity of Nanxian County, Hanshou County, and Xiangyin County will be significantly increased from overload to critical state, and Dingcheng District will gradually turn from critical to overloaded status. This study is the first attempt to evaluate and predict the water resources carrying capacity of the Dongting Lake area at the county level so that the evaluation results are more applicable to grass-roots administrative units with decision-making power. The double-weighting method is used to determine the weights of the indicators so that the evaluation results can be more accurate.