Evaluating the Relationship between White-Tailed Deer and Environmental Conditions using Spatially Autocorrelated Data in Tropical Dry Forests of Central Mexico

Abstract

Ordinary least-square (OLS) regression is fundamental to quantitative research in many ecological disciplines. However, spatially explicit methods have recently been proposed that allow the incorporation of spatial autocorrelation into ecological models. We compared the spatial error simultaneous autoregressive model (SARerr) and generalized least squares regression (GLS) with the results of simple and multiple OLS regressions, to analyze the relationship between white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus) population density and environmental conditions in two regions dominated by tropical dry forests in central Mexico. The spatially explicit methods presented better goodness of fit than the OLS regression; we also observed a miscalculation in the probabilities obtained with the OLS regression, which in this method led to an incorrect interpretation. In general, we suggest the application of spatially explicit methods to analyze species-habitat relationships when SAC is observed in model residuals. We also discuss the management implications of these results.