Abstract
Abstract Background Scotland experiences high levels of alcohol consumption and related harm. The relationship between alcohol price and consumption is well established. Minimum unit pricing (MUP), introduced in Scotland in 2018, sets a minimum price at which a unit of alcohol can be sold. The intention of MUP is to prevent alcohol being sold at below 50 pence per unit, thereby reducing alcohol consumption and in turn related harm to health. Scotland is the first country to implement this form of MUP; the evaluation of the impact of MUP is therefore of international importance. Methods Using commercial alcohol retail sales data, we use a natural experiment design with interrupted time series analysis to assess for changes in the level or trend of the volume of pure alcohol sold in Scotland associated with MUP implementation. Data for England and Wales will be used as a control. Results Descriptive analysis shows per adult off-trade sales of pure alcohol in Scotland fell by 3.6% in the year following MUP implementation. An increase in the average price of alcohol of 5 pence per unit in Scotland was also observed. There were reductions in per adult sales in all major drink categories with cider having the greatest relative decline (18.6%); cider also had the greatest increase in average price. Results of the interrupted time series analysis have yet to be reported but will be available for the conference. Conclusions The early indication of a reduction in total per adult off-trade sales of pure alcohol is an encouraging sign that MUP is having its intended impact. However, the full impact of MUP can only be judged across a range of outcome areas and over a longer time period. Key messages Minimum unit pricing appears to be having its intended impact on alcohol consumption at a population level in Scotland in the short term. Further work is ongoing to assess the impact of MUP on a wide range of outcomes and over a longer time period.
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