Evaluating the global climate change influence on the infrastructure development at the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation

Abstract

One of the major problems of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) is the unpreparedness of all types of infrastructure to the global climate change. The negative effects of climate change deal with impacts on ecosystems, environment, infrastructure, especially for the coastal zones, public health and traditional lifestyle of the local population. The positive effects including the decrease of the heating expenditures increased opportunities for agriculture and forestry, the extension of the navigation along the Northern Sea Route, as well as increased access to the marine living and mineral resources. The implementation of the programs for adaptation to global climate change and the increase in the efficiency of the state investment policy can significantly improve the key performance indicators of the AZRF. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the global climate change influence on the infrastructure development by means of scenario forecasts elaboration (using extrapolation, regression, heuristic methods etc.). The evaluation found the forecast of cargo transportation volume along the Northern sea route could be increased up to 109.7 million tons by the year 2030, according to the target scenario or it can reach 76.5 million tons according to the baseline scenario. The last one extrapolates the existing trends without considering the climate factor.