Evaluating the factors influencing the location strategies of specialty grocers versus traditional supermarkets in the United States

Abstract

This study leverages geostatistical analysis and spatial regression to contrast the trade area composition of specialty grocery chains and traditional supermarkets in the United States. In addition to demographic factors, we focus on two dimensions of trade area composition: consumer lifestyles and the competitive landscape. Results suggest that these additional dimensions are influential to differentiate between the trade areas of specialty grocers and traditional supermarkets. Specifically, a 1% increase in the percentage of commuters traveling to work on foot or bicycle in a given trade area corresponds to a 0.31% increase in the probability that the trade area belongs to a specialty grocer rather than a traditional supermarket. Similarly, adding a health and fitness establishment to a trade area leads to a 0.16% increase in the likelihood that the trade area belongs to a specialty grocer rather than a traditional supermarket. Specialty grocers also have a greater probability (1.27%) to locate in more competitive trade areas than traditional supermarkets. Findings from this study provide actionable insights for shopping center landlords and developers who may be interested in attracting specialty grocer tenants. The study may also support grocery chains in designing competitive location strategies and in making real estate decisions.