Evaluating resilience in a two-echelon supply chain under the effect of disruptions: an integrated Markov chain modeling approach
ABSTRACT Unforeseen disruptions in the global supply chain emphasize the necessity of quantitative tools for better evaluations of resilience. This study develops a Continuous-Time Markov Chain model to analyze the dynamic behavior of a two-stage supply chain with a single supplier and manufacturer. Resilience is assessed via sustainability, vulnerability, and recoverability metrics which are determined as instantaneous measurements using Kolmogorov forward equations and long-term measurements using limiting probabilities. The system states reflect fluctuating operational capacity, with transitions capturing disruption and recovery dynamics. Numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model. Sensitivity analyses are also conducted to unveil the impacts of various input parameters on resilience measures. This research provides a practical and decision-support tool for supply chain managers to evaluate the effects of disruptions and prioritize resilience-boosting strategies.
- Research Article
- 10.1108/nbri-10-2024-0109
- Oct 21, 2025
- Nankai Business Review International
Purpose This study aims to explore the interplay between supply chain collaboration and disruption and their joint impact on supply chain resilience. It also aims to identify the configurational conditions under which supply chain resilience is achieved, providing a holistic framework for enhancing supply chain management practices amidst disruptions. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to investigate the complex causal mechanisms linking supply chain collaboration and disruption with supply chain resilience. The research integrates three dimensions of collaboration with three dimensions of disruption, offering a comprehensive understanding of supply chain resilience factors. Findings This study reveals that supply chain resilience is not solely dependent on individual elements but is shaped by unique configurations of collaboration and disruption factors. Information sharing emerges as a core factor in high resilience, while the absence of supply and facility disruptions significantly influences resilience outcomes. The research highlights the importance of multiple paths leading to supply chain resilience and the asymmetrical impact of collaboration and disruption. Research limitations/implications The study acknowledges limitations due to data sourced exclusively from China and the use of static data, suggesting the need for cross-temporal and international samples to enhance broader applicability. Future research should consider dynamic temporal changes and diverse theoretical perspectives to comprehensively examine the factors influencing supply chain resilience. Practical implications The research underscores the critical role of information sharing in bolstering supply chain resilience and advises firms to prioritize it in their strategies. It also highlights the importance of mitigating supply and facility disruptions through supplier diversification and robust contingency planning, offering actionable insights for enhancing operational efficiency and risk management in supply chain management. Social implications This research has significant social implications, particularly in the context of global supply chain disruptions. By identifying key factors that enhance supply chain resilience, it can help businesses better prepare for and respond to crises, thereby reducing economic instability and social disruption. Improved resilience can lead to more stable employment, maintain the flow of essential goods and services and contribute to overall societal well-being during times of supply chain stress. Originality/value This study offers original insights by applying fsQCA to explore the multifaceted relationship between supply chain collaboration, disruption and resilience. Its value lies in revealing the complex causal configurations that lead to high or low levels of supply chain resilience, challenging traditional linear perspectives and providing a nuanced understanding that can guide both academic research and practical supply chain management strategies.
- Research Article
21
- 10.1002/joom.1250
- Apr 1, 2023
- Journal of Operations Management
Building responsive and resilient supply chains: Lessons from the <scp>COVID</scp>‐19 disruption
- Research Article
39
- 10.1108/jmtm-08-2022-0307
- Mar 16, 2023
- Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management
PurposeThe current study sought to investigate the moderating effect of supply chain disruptions (SCD) (supply chain – supply disruption, catastrophic disruption and infrastructure disruption) on the relationship between supply chain resilience (SCR) and supply chain performance (SCP) of manufacturing firms in Ghana.Design/methodology/approachThe quantitative research approach and explanatory research designs were utilised. A sample of 345 manufacturing firms were drawn from a population of 2,495 manufacturing firms in the Accra metropolis. The Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) was employed to accomplish the research objectives.FindingsFirst, the study revealed that SCR has a significant positive effect on SCP. Second, the authors found reasonable evidence to support that SCD have a significant positive moderating effect on the relationship between SCR and SCP, except for supply chain catastrophic disruption which had a negative impact. It can be concluded that the components of SCD have heterogeneous impact in the SCR and SCP nexus.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is limited to manufacturing firms in Ghana and does not make a distinction among resilience strategies.Practical implicationsIncreased SCR boost manufacturing companies' supply chains' performance and aid to lessen the adverse effects of SCD relating to infrastructure and supply. It implies that supply chain managers are able to reduce the effects of infrastructure and supply disruptions. Also, techniques that reduce the adverse impact of SCD relating to catastrophe would be beneficial for supply chain managers in Ghana and other countries with comparable economic environments.Originality/valueThe study provides a unique contribution on the moderating role of the dimensions of SCD (supply, infrastructure and catastrophic) on the nexus between SCR and SCP in a developing economy context in a dynamic changing environment. Policymakers would get better insights into instituting the required policies needed to revamp firms with weak supply chains as a result of supply chain disruption.
- Research Article
4
- 10.5267/j.jfs.2023.1.003
- Jan 1, 2023
- Journal of Future Sustainability
During a pandemic like COVID-19, the country adopted a lockdown to minizine the spread of the pandemic which disrupted the global supply chain and supply chain resilience failed to minimize disruption. In this regard, this study aims to explore the resilience system among countries during a global disruption and the impact of supply chain disruption on supply chain resilience through misinformation/fake news, panic buying behavior, and inflation factors. For this purpose, the analytical study has been selected to predict the impact of supply chain disruption on supply chain resilience through misinformation/fake news, panic buying behavior, and inflation and propose a solution accordingly. The data from 89 countries are collected on various factors for the year 2020 and mediating analysis is selected to test the hypothesis through regression and correlation. They illustrate that there is a 46% correlation and 21% dependency between supply chain disruption and supply chain resilience through misinformation/fake news, panic buying behavior, supply chain disruption & inflation. The criterion validity of convergence validity and Cronbach of homogeneity test are applied. It has been found that panic buying behavior & supply chain disruption has a 71% strong correlation as compared to other factors and the reliability is 69% which is highly reliable and acceptable. In the end, it is concluded that strong coordination among countries will minimize global supply chain disruption through supply chain resilience for continuing supply chain activities and supply chain organizations & mass media organizations coordination with each other for minimizing misinformation/fake news, panic buying behavior supply chain disruption, and inflation factors to improve supply chain resilience by using artificial intelligence technology.
- Research Article
15
- 10.1108/jgoss-04-2022-0026
- Dec 20, 2022
- Journal of Global Operations and Strategic Sourcing
PurposeThis study aims to identify supply chain (SC) management practices applied to purchasing capable of improving the resilience of the health-care SC and mitigating the effects of material and service disruption during pandemics.Design/methodology/approachThe approach adopted is qualitative and is based on a systematic literature review from the ScienceDirect, Emerald, Wiley and Web of Science databases. After selecting 705 documents, filters are applied, and 52 articles present problems faced by purchasing the health-care SC during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.FindingsThis article suggests five propositions of resilient practices that can increase purchasing resilience in the face of pandemics such as COVID-19. The proposed practices are collaboration, flexibility, visibility, agility and information sharing, which suggest a sequence for the adoption of management practices based on the number of occurrences and importance found in the analysed studies.Research limitations/implicationsThis study does not find robust empirical evidence that could categorically state that the results can be replicated in organisations in general. Thus, as a continuation of research, more studies should use an empirical methodology and case analysis to organise different branches. As the human factor was decisive for the results observed in the literature, future research should dedicate part of the studies to the psychological area of professionals. Actions to combat the pandemic were implemented, impacting positively and negatively on the results obtained. Future research on combat actions could indicate which ones should be avoided.Practical implicationsAs a result, disruptions are expected to be reduced, and consequently, the resilience of the SC will increase. Accordingly, purchasing processes and procedures can be redefined to positively influence the resilience of the health-care SC. Resilience is related to maintaining the flow of supply, as well as systems and actions aimed at mitigating the effects of disruptions in the hospital’s core business.Social implicationsHealth systems need to respond to society’s needs even in the face of global crises, such as the one faced during the COVID-19 pandemic. The overload in hospitals and the exponential demand for specific medicines and services in the fight against the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic require enormous coordination in procurement by the purchasing sector. This planning aims to ensure that the care provided by health services maintains the flow of value that serves hospitalised patients.Originality/valueThis study introduces a new approach to the recurrent problem of disruption of the health-care SC during a pandemic using a combination of five important management practices. This proves useful for mitigating disruptions and their effects on the health-care SC.
- Research Article
- 10.5075/epfl-thesis-7399
- Jan 1, 2016
It is well established that firms are exposed to the risk of supply chain disruptions. Many firms build risk mitigation strategies in order to increase the resilience of their supply chains. In this dissertation we present three essays that study operational risk mitigation levers such as inventory, reserve capacity and dual sourcing. The first essay outlines an application in the pharmaceutical industry where the risk mitigation levers inventory, dual sourcing and agility capacity are analyzed. We study the relationship between these three levers by modeling a drug manufacturing firm that is exposed to disruptions in its supply chain. The firm determines optimal inventory levels for assumed dual sourcing and agility capacity. We quantify the decrease in inventory levels in the presence of dual sourcing and agility capacity. Furthermore, using an example, we analyze inventory, dual sourcing and agility capacity decisions jointly. It turns out that inventory and agility capacity can be substitutes as long as no dual source is available. Once the dual source is available, agility capacity and dual sourcing appear to be substitutes. We further show that for long disruption times, the optimal dual source production rate may decrease in the disruption time. Within our modeling framework, we introduce an operational metric as a measure for resilience under deterministic demand. In the second essay we study the joint role of inventory and reserve capacity in mitigating supply disruptions. A reserve capacity can be used for production in a reactive fashion when a disruption occurs. We first determine optimal inventory levels and reserve capacity production rates jointly under stochastic customer demand. This allows us to fully characterize three main risk mitigation strategies: inventory strategy, reserve capacity strategy, and mixed strategy. Furthermore, we provide structural insights of optimal risk mitigation strategies. We then combine our analytical results with the well-established (Q,R) policy to perform numerical experiments using Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as a resilience measure. Our results suggest that the resilience measure depends on both the reorder point R and the batch size Q. Comparing the resilience measure with the service level, we find that a high service level and high resilience can be conflicting objectives. The third essay is concerned with the role of inventory in mitigating disruptions in two-echelon supply chains under stochastic demand. The research problem is to determine the optimal backup inventories for a serial, assembly and distribution supply chain respectively. For the three supply chain types, disruptions at each production site are described by an infinite-state discrete-time Markov process. We derive structural insights on the optimal inventory levels for the serial supply chain. For the assembly and distribution supply chain we show that under mild assumptions an early commitment to finished goods inventories is optimal. This finding is different from optimal safety inventory policies where often a delayed differentiation in assembly supply chains or risk pooling in distribution supply chains is optimal.
- Research Article
1
- 10.1093/clinchem/hvae106.203
- Oct 2, 2024
- Clinical Chemistry
Background Recent pandemics, epidemics and outbreaks continually underscore the critical importance of resilient supply chains in healthcare, particularly in clinical laboratories where timely access to supplies is essential for patient care. Supply chain disruptions, whether due to global crises or localized challenges, can significantly impact laboratory operations, leading to delayed diagnoses, compromised patient outcomes, and increased costs. It is estimated that 70%-80% of a patients’ EMR is clinical laboratory results. Despite this, supply chain resilience in clinical laboratories remains an under-addressed issue and remains a buzzword. Methods To evaluate the cost and importance of supply chain resilience in the clinical laboratory, we conducted a comprehensive review and interviews with 9 Healthcare Supply Chain experts analyzing the impact of supply chain disruptions on laboratory operations and patient care. Data was also collected from a diverse range of clinical laboratories, including hospitals, independent labs, and research institutions, spanning different geographic regions as well as a survey of 50 Laboratory experts with a 50% response rate. Key metrics assessed included: -Frequency and duration of supply chain disruptions. -Financial costs incurred due to disruptions, including expenses related to expedited shipping, alternative sourcing, and inventory management. -Impact on laboratory workflow, turnaround times, and patient care outcomes. -Strategies employed to mitigate supply chain risks and enhance resilience. Results Our review revealed findings regarding the cost and importance of supply chain resilience in the clinical laboratory: -Supply chain disruptions were frequent, with 85% of laboratories experiencing at least one significant disruption in the past year and 100% in experienced disruptions 2022. -The average duration of disruptions was 2-3 weeks, leading to substantial delays in test processing and patient care. -Financial costs associated with disruptions averaged $50,000 per laboratory per annum, including expenses for rush orders, and premium-priced alternatives. -Common strategies employed were increased inventory or safety stocks, multi-vendor sourcing, and supply chain mapping. Conclusions The findings of this study underscore the critical importance of supply chain resilience in the clinical laboratory. Supply chain disruptions are not just inconveniences; they pose significant risks to patient safety, operational efficiency, and financial sustainability. Investing in supply chain resilience is imperative for laboratories to fulfill their mission of delivering timely and accurate patient results. To continue to enhance supply chain resilience, laboratories must adopt a proactive approach, leveraging data-driven insights and collaborative partnerships. This includes diversifying supplier networks and fostering closer collaboration between laboratory and procurement teams.
- Research Article
37
- 10.1007/s42524-022-0229-x
- Feb 8, 2023
- Frontiers of Engineering Management
Black swan events such as the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak cause substantial supply chain disruption risks to modern companies. In today’s turbulent and complex business environment, supply chain resilience and robustness as two critical capabilities for firms to cope with disruptions have won substantial attention from both the academia and industry. Accordingly, this study intends to explore how digitalization helps build supply chain resilience and robustness. Adopting organizational information processing theory, it proposes the mediating effect of supply chain collaboration and the moderating effect of formal contracts. Using survey data of Chinese manufacturing firms, the study applied structural equation modelling to test the research model. Results show that digitalization has a direct effect on supply chain resilience, and supply chain collaboration can directly facilitate both resilience and robustness. Our study also indicates a complementary mediating effect of supply chain collaboration on the relationship between digitalization and supply chain resilience and an indirect-only mediation effect on the relationship between digitalization and supply chain robustness. Findings reveal the differential roles of digitalization as a technical factor and supply chain collaboration as an organizational factor in managing supply chain disruptions. Paradoxically, formal contracts enhance the relationship between digitalization and supply chain resilience but weaken the relationship between supply chain collaboration and supply chain resilience. The validation of moderating effects determines the boundary conditions of digitalization and supply chain collaboration and provides insights into governing supply chain partners’ behavior. Overall, this study enhances the understanding on how to build a resilient and robust supply chain.
- Research Article
84
- 10.1016/j.ijpe.2021.108387
- Dec 9, 2021
- International Journal of Production Economics
The implications of additive manufacturing technology adoption for supply chain resilience: A systematic search and review
- Research Article
12
- 10.1108/ijlm-10-2022-0422
- Jun 27, 2023
- The International Journal of Logistics Management
PurposeThis systematic literature review analyzes the academic literature to understand SC risk and resilience across different organizational sizes and industries. The academic literature has well discussed the causes of supply chain (SC) risk events, the impact of SC disruptions, and associated plans for SC resilience. However, the literature remains fragmented on the role of two fundamental elements in achieving SC resilience: the firm's size and the firm's industry as firms' contingent factors. Therefore, it is important to investigate and highlight SC resilience differences by size and industry type to establish more resilient firms.Design/methodology/approachBuilding upon the contingent resource-based view of the firm, the authors posit that organizational factors such as size and industry sector have important roles in developing organizational resilience capabilities. This systematic literature review and analysis is based on the structural and systematic analysis of high-ranked peer-reviewed journal papers from January 2000 to June 2021 collected through three global scientific databases (i.e. ProQuest, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar) using relevant keywords.FindingsThis systematic literature review of 230 high-quality articles shows that SC risk events can be categorized into demand, supply, organizational, operational, environmental, and network/control risk events. This study suggests that the SC resilience plans developed by startups, small and mdium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and large organizations are not necessarily the same as those of large enterprises. While collaboration and networking and risk management are the most crucial resilience capabilities for all firms, applying lean and quality management principles and utilizing information technology are more crucial for SMEs. For large firms, knowledge management and contingency planning are more important.Originality/valueThis study provides a comprehensive review of the literature on SC resilience plans across different organizational sizes and industries, offering new insights into the nature and dynamics of startups', SMEs', and large enterprises' SC resilience in different industries. The study highlights the need for further investigation of SC risk and resilience for startups, SMEs, and different industries on a more detailed level using empirical data. This study’s findings have important implications for researchers and practitioners and guide the development of effective SC resilience strategies for different types of firms.
- Research Article
22
- 10.1108/bij-02-2021-0084
- Nov 23, 2021
- Benchmarking: An International Journal
PurposeThe study of supply chain disruption (SCD) and supply chain resilience (SCR) remains to be studied deeply in the field of business management. The purpose of this paper is to showcase a framework of SCR strategies to reduce the adverse effects of SCD using systematic literature review and data visualization.Design/methodology/approachUsing a systematic literature review approach, the paper explores the concepts of supply chain disruption and supply chain resilience. Through rigorous systematic screening, authors studied papers on both the concepts and have proposed a framework for the same. The authors also have used data visualization and network diagram approaches for better understanding of the topic.FindingsThe systematic literature review of both the concepts brings out some exciting results which give a new direction to supply chain field. The outcome of this research also outlines numerous future research direction, which will be useful for the research community.Practical implicationsThe numerous strategies of SCR should be implemented by manufacturing as well as a service organization. The framework reported in this research help academician and practitioners to understand SCR and to easily overcome any level of disruption. Supply chain managers must also formulate strategies accordingly and make plans to continually expand the system.Originality/valueThis research is the first such attempt to showcase a formal systematic framework and co-occurrence networks as well as overlay networks of SCR and SCD.
- Research Article
3
- 10.1108/ijpdlm-03-2022-0094
- Dec 27, 2022
- International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management
PurposeFake news on social media about COVID-19 pandemic and its associated issues (e.g. lockdown) caused public panic that lead to supply chain (SC) disruptions, which eventually affect firm performance. The purpose of this study is to understand how social media fake news effects firm performance, and how to mitigate such effects.Design/methodology/approachGrounded on dynamic capability view (DCV), this study suggests that social media fake news effects firm performance via SC disruption (SCD) and SC resilience (SCR). Moreover, the relation between SCD and SCR is contingent upon SC learning (SCL) – a moderated mediation effect. To validate this complex model, the authors suggest effectiveness of using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). Using an online survey, the results support the authors’ hypotheses.FindingsThe results suggest that social media fake news does not affect firm performance directly. However, the authors’ serial mediation test confirms that SCD and SCR sequentially mediate the relationship between social media fake news and firm performance. In addition, a moderated serial mediation test confirms that a higher level of SCL strengthens the SCD–SCR relationship.Research limitations/implicationsThis work offers a new theoretical and managerial perspective to understand the effect of fake news on firm performance, in the context of crises, e.g. COVID-19. In addition, this study offers the advancement of PLS as more robust for real-world applications and more advantageous when models are complex.Originality/valuePrior studies in the SC and marketing domain suggest different effects of social media fake news on consumer behavior (e.g. panic buying) and SCD, respectively. This current study is a unique effort that investigates the ultimate effect of fake news on firm performance with complex causal relationships via SCD, SCR and SCL.
- Research Article
195
- 10.1016/j.ijpe.2019.107610
- Dec 30, 2019
- International Journal of Production Economics
Supply chain and external conditions under which supply chain resilience pays: An organizational information processing theorization
- Research Article
- 10.47510/jeat.2022.4.1.1
- Jun 30, 2022
- The East Asian Trade Association
Purpose – Supply chain disruptions have dominated business planning and performance since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and continue to mar organizations through 2022. This research carefully examines the role of organizational culture in developing both supply chain resilience and market performance amid supply chain disruptions.
 Design/Methodology/Approach – An empirical study of over 200 South Korean firms were tested. The model is tested using PLS-SEM; furthermore, mediation effects enrich the quality of the findings. This research is framed utilizing the stimulus-organism-response model; thus, emphasizing the highly dynamic business environment that has ensued.
 Findings – The research confirms that supply chain disruption orientation, a strategic orientation and a proxy for a well-prepared organizational culture, leads to both supply chain resilience and market performance. Results also confirm that resilience reinforces market performance throughout the supply chain. Study contributions suggest that firms should consider themselves as organisms within a highly dynamic environment and develop a highly prepared organizational culture in order to bolster supply chain resilience and market performance.
 Research Implications – Scholars can further employ the stimulus-organism-response model in firm-level research and further study the link between organizational culture and supply chain performance amid COVID-19. Finally, the results of this research provide guidelines for organizations when they decide on operational procedures during the pandemic, as they aim to produce greater returns for their ventures.
- Research Article
15
- 10.1108/scm-01-2023-0022
- Nov 30, 2023
- Supply Chain Management: An International Journal
PurposeThis study aims to analyse whether the presence of supply chain complexity (SCC) influences firms to improve their supply chain (SC) resilience and SC robustness capability. This study also examines an important paradox: whether investing in both exploitation and exploration practices is conflicting or complementary to enabling SC resilience and robustness in the presence of SCC.Design/methodology/approachThe authors used a survey-based approach to collect 242 useful responses from SC professionals of Pakistani firms, an important emerging economy context. The data were analysed with covariance-based structural equation modelling to statistically validate the model.FindingsThe analysis reveals several key findings: the presence of SCC has a direct, positive influence on SC resilience and SC robustness; while exploitation practices only partially mediate the nexus between SCC and SC resilience, they fully mediate the relationship between SCC and SC robustness; while exploration practices partially mediate the nexus between SCC and SC resilience, they do not mediate the relationship between SCC and SC robustness and SCC has a significant influence on SC resilience and SC robustness sequentially through exploitation and exploration (i.e. one after the other).Practical implicationsThese findings help to reconcile the exploitation versus exploration paradox in cultivating SC resilience and SC robustness in the presence of SCC. The findings assist SC managers in determining how to deploy their limited resources most effectively to enhance SC resilience and SC robustness while facing SCC.Originality/valueThe authors devise and empirically validate a unique framework that demonstrates how the presence of SCC works as a stimulus to build SC resilience and SC robustness.
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