Evaluating Morphological Dynamics in the Krong No River under Anthropogenic Influences

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state’s fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

Interacting effects of physical environment and anthropogenic disturbances on the structure of European larch ( Larix decidua Mill.) forests

Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near‐surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning of the anthropogenic influence to individual factors, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, is much less robust. Differences in how forcing factors are applied, in their radiative influence and in models' climate sensitivities, substantially influence the response patterns. We find that standard optimal detection methodologies cannot fully reconcile this response diversity. By selecting a set of experiments to enable the diagnosing of greenhouse gases and the combined influence of other anthropogenic and natural factors, we find robust detections of well‐mixed greenhouse gases across a large ensemble of models. Of the observed warming over the twentieth century of 0.65 K/century we find, using a multimodel mean not incorporating pattern uncertainty, a well‐mixed greenhouse gas warming of 0.87 to 1.22 K/century. This is partially offset by cooling from other anthropogenic and natural influences of −0.54 to −0.22 K/century. Although better constrained than recent studies, the attributable trends across climate models are still wide, with implications for observational constrained estimates of transient climate response. Some of the uncertainties could be reduced in future by having more model data to better quantify the simulated estimates of the signals and natural variability, by designing model experiments more effectively and better quantification of the climate model radiative influences. Most importantly, how model pattern uncertainties are incorporated into the optimal detection methodology should be improved.

In the Netherlands, precipitation minus reference evaporation (Makkink) is a good indicator for groundwater recharge. In the following, this difference is referred to as potential recharge. The climate change since 1940 has led to systematic changes in precipitation and in evaporation. However, the 30-year running average of the potential recharge does not show a continuous trend over this period, but the 30-year running standard deviation steadily increases for aggregation intervals shorter than a year. This suggests that the variability of the groundwater heads may have increased also.Analysis of a set of long timeseries of groundwater head in the Netherlands does not show such an increase in variability. In order to determine whether this is due to the properties of the groundwater system or due to other (anthropogenic) influences, simulations of the groundwater heads have been carried out using timeseries modelling with a timeseries of the potential recharge and transfer functions covering the range of responses determined in the Dutch national Groundwater head viewer. The simulations show that an increase of the variability of the groundwater heads due to the increased variability of the potential recharge is only to be expected for short response times. However, comparison of the aggregated trends of the groundwater heads with the trends of the potential recharge indicates that there is a strong anthropogenic impact besides the influence of the climate (change). Therefore, long term assessment of (geo)hydrological systems has to include land-use changes, groundwater abstraction and other anthropogenic influences.

Understanding the interplay between climatic and anthropogenic factors is a major challenge in palaeo-ecology. In particular, it is often difficult to distinguish anthropogenic and “natural” fire in the charcoal record. In this paper, analysis of fossil pollen, charcoal, diatoms and isotopic evidence from Mapimbi, a small lake in the Kruger National Park, South Africa, suggests that for most of the past ca. 700 years, the riverine gallery forests surrounding Mapimbi were primarily influenced by climate, and benefited during warmer, wetter periods. The transitions between four, statistically different phases in the time-series data coincide with regional climate records previously constructed from speleothem data, and are consistent with the transition from the medieval warm period ending in the 14th century a.d. to the cooler, drier conditions prevailing during the little ice age of ca. a.d. 1400–1800. The data also suggest a period of significant, anthropogenic influence after a.d. 1800, when maize was grown and the incidence of localised fires increased. An increase in woody cover in recent decades may be associated with the management of the area by Kruger National Park. A decline in cultivation occurred in the end of the 20th century linked with changes in socio-political organisation.

Anthropogenic and environmental influences on nutrient accumulation in mangrove sediments

Discrimination of lithogenic and anthropogenic influences on topsoil magnetic susceptibility in Central Europe

This study tested whether some attributes of the diversity, communities and populations of surf-zone fish assemblages varied with different hydrodynamic and anthropogenic influences at four Guanabara Bay sandy beaches: Dentro (sheltered with limited human access), Fora (exposed with limited human access), Urca (sheltered with unlimited human access) and Vermelha (exposed with unlimited human access), between autumn 2011 and summer 2012. Twenty-nine species and 1613 individuals were recorded from 76 trawls. The 10 most abundant species accounted for 94·5% of the total number, but only four species (Diplodus argenteus, Harengula clupeola, Sardinella brasiliensis and Sphoeroides greeleyi) were recorded at all four beaches, revealing a high level of species substitution. Fish assemblages differed not only for diversity attributes, but also at community and population levels, with lower values of the Shannon-Wiener index, richness and total fish abundance and biomass at Vermelha beach, and higher densities of Trachinotus carolinus, Atherinella brasiliensis and S. greeleyi related to beaches with high anthropogenic influence. The findings reveal that fish assemblages of Dentro, Fora, Urca and Vermelha beaches differed not only in response to hydrodynamic influences, but also due to the effects of different degrees of human interference (i.e. presence of solid residues, population density and fishing impacts), emphasizing the importance of the sheltered and less anthropogenically affected beaches, as spawning, nursery and growth areas.

Octocorals are an important part of many ecosystems as they add three-dimensional complexity to the benthos and thereby increase biodiversity. The Mediterranean red coral (Corallium rubrum, L. 1758) is a longevous octocoral that is harvested commercially, yet natural and anthropogenic influences on its population size structure are little understood. This study found that some harvested red coral populations had a significantly different size structure when compared to populations at the nearby Marine Protected Area (MPA) of Medas Islands at the Spanish Costa Brava (NW Mediterranean). Eighty-nine percent of the red corals in the harvested Costa Brava area are less than 10 years old and 96% of all colonies have not yet grown more than second-order branches. The size/age distribution of the harvested population is notably skewed towards younger and smaller colonies. Thus, although red coral is still abundant, its population structure is strongly distorted by harvesting. The results confirm that MPAs are useful to distinguish between anthropogenic and natural influences on population structure. However, 14 years of protection appears to be an insufficient recovery time for a longevous octocoral population such as red coral.

Riverbed dynamics are natural processes that are strongly driven by human and climatic factors. In the last two centuries, the anthropogenic influence and impact of climate change on European rivers has resulted in significant degradation of riverbeds. This research paper aims to determine the historical evolution (1856–2021) and future trends of the Ialomița riverbed (Romania) under the influence of anthropogenic impact and climate change. The case study is a reach of 66 km between the confluences with the Ialomicioara and Pâscov rivers. The localisation in a contact zone between the Curvature Subcarpathians and the Târgoviște Plain, the active recent tectonic uplift of the area, and the intense anthropogenic intervention gives to this river reach favourable conditions for pronounced riverbed dynamics over time. To achieve the aim of the study, we developed a complex methodology which involves the use of Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques, hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), the Mann–Kendall test (MK), and R programming. The results indicate that the evolution of the Ialomița River aligns with the general trends observed across Europe and within Romania, characterised by a reduction in riverbed geomorphological complexity and a general transition from a braided, multi-thread into a sinuous, single-thread fluvial style. The main processes consist of channel narrowing and incision alternating with intense meandering. However, specific temporal and spatial evolution patterns were identified, mainly influenced by the increasingly anthropogenic local influences and confirmed climate changes in the study area since the second half of the 20th century. Future evolutionary trends suggest that, in the absence of river restoration interventions, the Ialomița riverbed is expected to continue degrading on a short-term horizon, following both climatic and anthropogenic signals. The findings of this study may contribute to a better understanding of recent river behaviours and serve as a valuable tool for the management of the Ialomița River.

Attribution of the human influence on heavy rainfall associated with flooding events during the 2012, 2016, and 2018 March-April-May seasons in Kenya

This study addresses the effects of climate, land-use, and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on the Fallen Leaf Lake watershed, Lake Tahoe Basin, through diatom and geochemical analyses of sediment cores. Four diatom zones are recognized from a core taken at Fallen Leaf Lake (FLL), a site moderately impacted by human activities: (1) Pre-Little Ice Age Zone (840–1385), (2) Little Ice Age Zone (1385–1810) characterized by Stephanodiscus alpinus and Aulacoseira subarctica, (3) Transitional Zone (1810–1950) of warming and anthropogenic influence with increased Lindavia rossii-ocellata group and Discostella stelligera and decreased Pseudostaurosira brevistriata, and (4) Anthropogenic Zone (1950–2010) characterized by a rapid increase of mesotrophic diatoms of the Fragilaria tenera-nanana group, Tabellaria flocculosa strain IIIP, and Nitzschia gracilis. The Transitional Zone increases in elemental Co, Zn, and Sn that may be attributed to an increase in coal burning and smelting activities in California and Nevada. Beginning around 1910 and accelerating in the 1940s, increased building, land-use, and recreation around FLL caused an increase in terrestrial sedimentary input. Down core proxies for atmospheric N deposition in the FLL watershed are, at best, weakly expressed and appear to be overshadowed by stronger signals. Lack of support for N deposition includes the asynchrony in the appearance of the N-sensitive diatom Asterionella formosa in FLL and a lower impact site at Gilmore Lake, and an uninformative δ15N record. Asterionella formosa is a dominant component in the FLL water column today, but has been present in similar abundances for at least the last 1200 years. Asterionella formosa is present in the water column at Gilmore Lake and absent from the sediment, indicating a very recent appearance. The data collected show that the FLL record is sensitive to climatic cooling during the Little Ice Age and to anthropogenic activities commencing in the 1800s that increased throughout the latter half of the twentieth century; however the effects of anthropogenic N deposition in these lakes could not be substantiated.

We used a decadal data set, with weekly to biweekly sampling in April—October and monthly sampling in November—March, to characterize climatic (hurricane‐level storms, a sustained 3‐yr drought) and anthropogenic influences on N and P concentrations and loadings to a large eutrophic, poorly flushed estuary, the Neuse Estuary of the Albemarle—Pamlico Estuarine System. Mass volume transport data were obtained with cross‐estuary transect flow measurements taken near the entrance to the estuary. Although trends were minimally influenced by hurricanes, analyses were significantly affected by the sustained drought near the end of the study. As examples, decreasing trends in total N (TN), total P (TP), and bottom‐water dissolved oxygen concentrations, and in TN loadings were significant considering all data, but these trends were not significant when the sustained drought was excluded from analysis. In addition, the trend in TN loading was especially sensitive to the initial sampling period. NH4+ concentrations dramatically increased (overall by ~500%) as a persistent trend regardless of attempts to control for climatic events. An increasing trend in NH4+ also was documented in an adjacent, rapidly flushed Coastal Plain estuary, the Cape Fear. The NH4+ data suggest a regional‐scale effect of high inputs from inadequately controlled, increasing nonpoint sources. The fragility of TN loading trends, the striking increase in NH4+ concentrations, and the lack of management emphasis on controlling nonpoint sources such as “new” industrialized swine production collectively do not support recent reports of achievement of a 30% reduction in TN loading to the Neuse. Nonpoint sources remain a critical target for reduction to alleviate the negative effects of cultural eutrophication in this system, as in many estuaries throughout the world.

The participate heavy metal concentrations of Cr, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, Tl, and Pb were determined in the atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean from 60°S to 54°N with the definitive method of isotope dilution mass spectrometry. The samples were collected during an expedition with the German polar research ship Polarstern. The sampling and the sample treatment were carried out under strict contamination control. Fe was used as a reference element for the influence of crustal material calculating the corresponding enrichment factors EF(Fe) for the other metal traces. The heavy metal concentrations varied up to more than 3 orders of magnitude, which represents the different natural and anthropogenic sources and influences on the composition of the marine aerosol. Tl showed the lowest abundance of all heavy metals with concentrations of less than 20 pg m−3 for all samples except those from the area around the English Channel. The concentration ranges for the other elements were Cr = < 0.08–9 ng m−3, Fe = < 2.6–7500 ng m−3, Ni = < 0.05–10 ng m−3, Cu = < 0.02–20 ng m−3, Zn = < 0.09–450 ng m−3, Cd = < 0.003–3.5 ng m−3, and Pb = < 0.05–200 ng m−3. The lowest element concentrations were usually measured in the remote areas of the South Atlantic, whereas the highest ones were detected around the English Channel. However, at some sampling sites over the North Atlantic, very low Cd and Pb values in the range of 6–20 pg m−3 and < 0.5 ng m−3, respectively, were determined, which could be attributed to Arctic air masses by their corresponding backward trajectories. Due to high Fe concentrations, a substantial influence of crustal material was observed in the atmosphere southeast of the South American continent, in the South Atlantic area of the southeast trades, and over the North Atlantic west of North Africa. EF(Fe) values for the most part less than 10 for Cr and Ni and less than 50 for Cu indicate that the influence of crustal material for these metals is much higher than for Zn, Cd, and Pb where EF(Fe) values between 500 and 5000 had often been determined. This is due to anthropogenic and biological influences. The anthropogenic influence was clearly identified, e.g., over the South Atlantic near the La Plata area, in the English Channel, and over the North Sea, whereas a substantial biological influence could be observed over the South Atlantic in the area of the southeast trades.

Urban expansion and extensive anthropogenic utilisation of the subsurface can lead to thermal changes in the ground, as structures such as basements, sewage systems, and tunnels reject or absorb heat to/from the ground. This phenomenon, known as Subsurface Urban Heat Island, has been widely documented and studied in recent years [1,7]. Investigations have shown that significant soil and groundwater temperature anomalies can be caused, with local hotspots and temperature differences up to 20 °C [6]. These ground temperature anomalies can affect, for example, ground- and drinking water quality, ecosystem biodiversity, and geothermal energy utilisation, with the latter being the focus of this work.
 The city of Cambridge, UK, shown in Figure 1-left, is adopted as a case study site, and a novel scalable large-scale subsurface modelling methodology [4] is used to obtain an understanding of the ground thermal state, accounting for natural and anthropogenic influences. The geology for the region is obtained by importing historical borehole records for the wider Cambridge area into the British Geological Survey (BGS) Groundhog® Desktop Geoscientific Information System and constraining the lithologies using BGS generated superficial deposit and bedrock geology maps, producing a 3D lithological profile. Water table readings from borehole wells supplied by the Environment Agency are used to create hydraulic head and water table maps for the region. Hydraulic and thermal properties for the materials in the domain were obtained from available literature* [2]. The main anthropogenic features are basements, assumed to be heated at 18 °C, and sewers, assumed linked with building density and at 15 °C. Following the methodology, the domain is separated into 1096 blocks, each 200m by 200 m laterally and 100 m in depth, clustered into 10 archetypes. Each archetype comprises a set of features resulting in a ground thermal state common across all blocks within an archetype [4].
 Having thus obtained the spatially varying ground temperature, the performance of typical shallow geothermal systems throughout the domain is assessed, initially investigating the theoretical geothermal potential. Figure 1-middle, shows the amount of heating power a typical 100 m double U-loop borehole can supply, providing a constant ground load from 1st of October to 31st May over a 50-year operation period. The power is computed using the Finite Line Source model and g-functions [5], setting a lower limit of -2 °C for the ground loop circulating fluid temperature. The results show that hydro-geological features and anthropogenic thermal influences in the region can result in spatial variation of geothermal potential of up to 0.3 kW, or about 1746 kWh per year. A sensitivity analysis indicates that no single feature dominates in the contribution to the magnitude of geothermal potential, suggesting that both natural and anthropogenic sources are important influences on how much energy the ground can provide.
 Extending the analysis by incorporating estimated residential heating demand data [3], Figure 1-right shows the percentage of residential demand that can be fulfilled using geothermal boreholes, assuming these are drilled in suitable parking and non-major road areas for each block, at a minimum spacing of 6 m to avoid thermal interference. The calculations use g-functions to compute how much of the estimated heating demand a single borehole can supply, using half-hour demand distributions for 50 years (repeated annually), and multiplied by the estimated number of boreholes in each block to determine the total geothermal energy that can be supplied. For a large portion of the modelled domain, the entirety of the residential heat demand is expected to be feasibly fulfilled using shallow geothermal energy. Certain areas, mostly agricultural and green spaces with no to low demand, contain no suitable borehole drilling locations, i.e., parking or road areas (a conservative assumption adopted in this study), resulting in no energy being supplied geothermally (light gray). Average demand supplied within the remaining region is 91%, with a standard deviation of 21%.
 As the world urgently seeks to transition to a more sustainable energy infrastructure, utilising different clean energy technologies in a more extensive and organised way becomes increasingly necessary. Geothermal energy technologies can be particularly suited for coordinated large-scale utilisation, due to the significant capital costs and the continuous nature of the ground, acting as a shared resource for large communities. This work briefly demonstrates the capacity that geothermal technologies have to fulfil a significant portion of the residential heat demand at large scales, using the city of Cambridge as an example, and that organisations or governments can take advantage of the potential that exists in finding common ground.