Evaluating athletic mental energy analysis: a novel approach using fuzzy-based Bayesian networks

Dynamic risk analysis of oil depot storage tank failure using a fuzzy Bayesian network model

Developing a taxonomy and a dependency assessment model of performance influencing factors for intelligent coal mines

Evaluation of the factors causing container lost at sea through fuzzy-based Bayesian network

Seafarers’ reliability depends upon many variables and their dependencies, alteration of a criterion value will ultimately alter seafarers’ reliability. In order to correct any deviation on time, the reliability of a seafarer has to be measured appropriately and regularly. This paper makes full use of the Bayesian networks’ advantages and further develops and extends Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBNs) and a “symmetric method” by exploiting a conceptual and sound methodology for the assessment of seafarers’ reliability. By exploiting the proposed FBN model, an equation for the reduction of human reliability attributable to a person’s continuous hours of wakefulness, acute sleep loss and cumulative sleep debt is formulated. The proposed methodology generates a new approach to pre-processing of input data that allows the use of standard BN techniques and software tools for evaluating seafarers’ reliability. Furthermore, the proposed methodology enables and facilitates the decision makers to measure the performance of a seafarer before his/her designation to any activities and during his/her seafaring period. 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ON SEAFARER’S RELIABILITY Measurement of reliability of human behaviour in a human-machine system has been a source of interest since 1963. Given that human reliability is normally expressed in both quantitative and qualitative terms, decision makers may often carry out their judgments based on both quantitative data and experiential subjective assessments. Based on the literature review, those criteria that have significant effects on seafarers’ reliability are listed in the following subsections. 2.1 Design and Layout (DL) It considers the integration of personnel with equipment, systems, and interfaces. It is important for designers and engineers, during the design stage, to consider the factors that may influence work performance and the likelihood of human error (ABS, 2003). 2.2 Technical Proficiency (TP) A seafarer’s technical proficiency can be evaluated by aggregation of the following criteria: A seafarer’s Qualification (QU): In 1993, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) embarked on a comprehensive revision of the Standards for Training Certification and

Physical activity is not associated with feelings of mental energy and fatigue after being sedentary for 8 hours or more

Container supply chains are vulnerable to many risks. Vulnerability can be defined as an exposure to serious disturbances arising from the risks within the supply chain as well as the risks external to the supply chain. Vulnerability can also be defined as exposure to serious disturbances arising from a hazard or a threat. Containers are one of the major sources of security concerns and have been used, for example, to smuggle illegal immigrants, weapons, and drugs. The consequences of the use of a weapon of mass destruction or discovery of such a device in a container are serious. Estimates suggest that a weapon of mass destruction explosion and the resulting port closure could cost billions of dollars. The annual cost of container losses as consequences of serious disturbances arising from hazards is estimated as $500 million per year. The literature review, historical failure data, and statistical analysis in the context of containerships' accidents from a safety point of view clearly indicate that the container cargo damage, machinery failure, collision, grounding, fire/explosion, and contact are the most significant accident categories with high percentages of occurrences. Another important finding from the literature review is that the most significant basic event contributing to the supply chains' vulnerability is human error. Therefore, firstly, this research makes full use of the Evidential Reasoning (ER) advantages and further develops and extends the Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning (FER) by exploiting a conceptual and sound methodology for the assessment of a seafarer's reliability. Accordingly, control options to enhance seafarers' reliability are suggested. The proposed methodology enables and facilitates the decision makers to measure the reliability of a seafarer before his/her designation to any activities and during his/her seafaring period. Secondly, this research makes full use of the Bayesian Networks (BNs) advantages and further develops and extends the Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBNs) and a symmetric method by exploiting a conceptual and sound methodology for the assessment of human reliability. Furthermore a FBN model (i. e. dependency network), which is capable of illustrating the dependency among the variables, is constructed. By exploiting the proposed FBN model, a general equation for the reduction of human reliability attributable to a person's continuous hours of wakefulness, acute sleep loss and cumulative sleep debt is formulated and tested.A container supply chain includes dozens of stakeholders who can physically come into contact with containers and their contents and are potentially related with the container trade and transportation. Security-based disruptions can occur at various points along the supply chain. Experience has shown that a limited percentage of inspection, coupled with a targeted approach based on risk analysis, can provide an acceptable security level. Thus, in order not to hamper the logistics process in an intolerable manner, the number of physical checks should be chosen cautiously. Thirdly, a conceptual and sound methodology (i. e. FBN model) for evaluating a container's security score, based on the importer security filling, shipping documents, ocean or sea carriers' reliability, and the security scores of various commercial operators and premises, is developed. Accordingly, control options to avoid unnecessary delays and security scanning are suggested. Finally, a decision making model for assessing the security level of a port associated with ship/port interface and based on the security score of the ship's cargo containers, is developed. It is further suggested that regardless of scanning all import cargo containers, one realistic way to secure the supply chain, due to lack of information and number of variables, is to enhance the ocean or sea carriers' reliability through enhancing their ship staff's reliability. Accordingly a decision making model to analyse the cost and benefit (i.e. CBA) is developed.

A comprehensive risk assessment framework for occupational health and safety in pharmaceutical warehouses using Pythagorean fuzzy Bayesian networks

The prevention and control of infectious disease epidemic (IDE) is an important task for every country and region. Risk assessment is significant for the prevention and control of IDE. Fuzzy Bayesian networks (FBN) can capture complex causality and uncertainty. The study developed a novel FBN model, integrating grounded theory, interpretive structural model, and expert weight determination algorithm for the risk assessment of IDE. The algorithm is proposed by the authors for expert weighting in fuzzy environment. The proposed FBN model comprehensively takes into account the risk factors and the interaction among them, and quantifies the uncertainty of IDE risk assessment, so as to make the assessment results more reliable. Taking the epidemic situation of COVID-19 in Wuhan as a case, the application of the proposed model is illustrated. And sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the important risk factors of IDE. Moreover, the effectiveness of the model is checked by the three-criterion-based quantitative validation method including variation connection, consistent effect, and cumulative limitation. Results show that the probability of the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan is as high as 82.26%, which is well-matched with the actual situation. "Information transfer mechanism," "coordination and cooperation among various personnel," "population flow," and "ability of quarantine" are key risk factors. The constructed model meets the above three criteria. The application potential and effectiveness of the developed FBN model are demonstrated. The study provides decision support for preventing and controlling IDE.

Incorporating ergonomic and psychosocial stressors: A comprehensive model for assessing miners’ work-related musculoskeletal disorders

A modified fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) is proposed in this study, which integrates fuzzy theory into Bayesian networks (BN) by using Gaussian mixture models (GMM) to make a fuzzy procedure. This particular procedure transforms continuous variables into discrete ones, when dealing with continuous inputs with probabilistic and uncertain nature. Based on the FBN, the fuzzy reasoning model for prediction and diagnosis can be designed. To validate our method, two models are built and used to classify the astrocytoma malignant degree, which can be modeled by probability quantitatively. The experiment results show that the model fusing both low-level image features and high-level semantics outperforms the one only using low-level image features with very promising results. This FBN model also provides knowledge expression in predicting astrocytoma malignant level. This study provides a novel objective method to quantitatively assess the astrocytoma malignancy level that can be used to assist doctors to diagnose the tumor

Multiple studies suggest that genetic polymorphisms influence the neurocognitive effects of caffeine. Using data collected from a double-blinded, within-participants, randomized, cross-over design, this study examined the effects of trait (long-standing pre-disposition) mental and physical energy and fatigue to changes in moods (Profile of Mood Survey-Short Form (POMS-SF), state mental and physical energy and fatigue survey), cognitive (serial subtractions of 3 (SS3) and 7 (SS7)), and fine-motor task (nine-hole peg test) performance after consuming a caffeinated beverage and a non-caffeinated placebo. Results indicate that trait mental and physical fatigue and mental energy modified the effects of caffeine on vigor, tension-anxiety, physical, and mental fatigue. Additionally, we report that those who were high trait physical and mental fatigue and low-trait mental energy reported the greatest benefit of caffeine on the SS3 and SS7, while those who were high trait mental and physical fatigue reported the greatest benefit of consuming caffeine on fine-motor task performance. The results of our study suggest that trait mental and physical fatigue and mental energy modify the acute effects of caffeine among a group of healthy, young adults and should be measured and controlled for by researchers who choose to study the effects of caffeine on acute moods and cognitive and fine-motor task performance.

Background Fatigue has been postulated to influence postural control, which may lead to an increased risk for falling among older adults.1 Mental and physical energy and fatigue have recently been reported to be four distinct mood states.2,3 Thus, to test Grobe’s1 theory of the influence of fatigue on postural control, we must examine all four mood states. Objective This study examined the influence of mental and physical energy and fatigue on postural control. Methods Adults (N=133, Males=50, Females=83, Age=25.8±7.96, BMI=24.8±3.8) aged 18-69 years were recruited from the community and asked to complete a series of surveys that measured their current mental and physical energy and fatigue states. After the completion of the surveys, subjects were instructed to complete the modified Clinical Test of Sensory Interaction in Balance (mCTSIB) using the APDM mobility monitors. Necessary assumptions were verified, and four multivariate multiple regression models were developed. Results Analyses yielded a significant association between posture and state mental energy (p=.048), but only when subjects were standing with their eyes closed while on a foam surface. Increased feelings of mental energy were associated with decreased total frequency dispersion (b=-358.62) and increased jerk in the coronal plane (b=11.78). No other associations were found. Discussion Results of our study suggest that as mental energy decreases there is a concomitant decrease in postural control when subjects are placed in conditions where they are unable to rely on visual feedback on unstable surfaces to maintain balance. Progressive increases in postural instability lead to increased risks of falls, most commonly in the elderly population. Falls are a significant risk factor for mortality. This study supports the clinical recommendation either to: (1) improve integration of vestibular and somatosensory input into postural control; or (2) train compensatory strategies for low lighting environments during episodes of decreased mental energy.

As one of the potential explosions and inflammation, compressed natural gas (CNG) stations in urban areas cause irreparable losses and casualties. Estimating risk assessment in gas stress based on coherent uses can reduce accidents in urban areas. The purpose of the present study was to estimate a small risk estimation at one of the CNG multipurpose stations, LPG, using combined models of the Fuzzy Bayesian Network, Bow-tie Diagram, and consequence modeling. This study was conducted based on the basic and 25 intermediate events. This study formed a seven-person safety team to identify the primary events and build the Bow-tie diagram. Then, because of the lack of a proper database, fuzzy theory was used to determine the probability of significant events. Bayesian networks were drawn based on the Bow-tie model using GeNLe software. Finally, the main events of the two Bow-tie, Bayesian network modeling, and risk estimation were performed with the help of PHAST/SAFETI (V8.22). The geographical information system software was used to zone the explosion effects. The Risk assessment result showed that the social risks and the Bayesian network model are more than Bow-tie, and the Bow-tie diagram is unacceptable. Therefore, using incompatible land uses in the vicinity of the CNG stations gives rise to the effects of accident scenarios in particular residential and administrative land uses, which decision-makers and city managers should consider. Based on the findings of this study, the obtained results can be utilized to implement effective control measures. These measures encompass devising a response plan tailored to address specific emergency conditions and conducting comprehensive training programs for the individuals and residents residing within the study area.

Annual age grouping is a common organizational strategy in academics and sports. This strategy could promote the relative effects of age, which refers to the (dis)advantages that subjects who were born in the first or last months of the year may suffer. The consequences could be minimized, resulting in better physical and/or academic results. The objective of the study was to evaluate the influence of the quarter of birth and examine the correlation between physical condition variables and academic performance. The sample included 79 students (51.90% females) 13.46 ± 0.21 years old in the second year of Obligatory Secondary Education. The physical variables of this study were explosive power, cardiorespiratory capacity, speed, flexibility, and muscle strength. They were evaluated using the horizontal jump tests, Cooper test, 50 m sprint, sit-and-reach test, and medicine ball exercises, respectively. The academic variables were obtained from the average academic grade, grouped by key competencies. An Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA), controlling for gender, body mass, and height, revealed significant differences between male students born in the first quarter compared to those born in subsequent quarters in all physical condition variables (except for cardiorespiratory capacity). For female students, significant differences were observed only in the explosive power variable. No statistically significant intra-sex differences were evident in academic performance at any time of measurement. Additionally, moderate to large correlations were found in the physical condition and academic variables. It is concluded in relation to the need to implement diverse strategies regarding the process of developing physical conditions in adolescence that satisfy the growth needs of students based on age and sex.

Quantitative risk assessment methodology of installation process for deepwater oil and gas equipment