Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Intensity via Deep Learning Techniques from Satellite Cloud Images

Abstract

Estimating the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) is usually involved as a critical step in studies on TC disaster warnings and prediction. Satellite cloud images (SCIs) are one of the most effective and preferable data sources for TC research. Despite the great achievements in various SCI-based studies, accurate and efficient estimation of TC intensity still remains a challenge. In recent years, machine learning (ML) techniques have gained fast development and shown significant potential in dealing with big data, particularly with images. This study focuses on the objective estimation of TC intensity based on SCIs via a comprehensive usage of some advanced deep learning (DL) techniques and smoothing methods. Two estimation strategies are proposed and examined which, respectively, involve one and two functional stages. The one-stage strategy uses Vision Transformer (ViT) or Deep Convolutional Neutral Network (DCNN) as the regression model for directly identifying TC intensity, while the second strategy involves a classification stage that aims to stratify SCI samples into a few intensity groups and a subsequent regression stage that specifies the TC intensity. Further efforts are made to improve the estimation accuracy by using smoothing manipulations (via four specific smoothing techniques) in the scenarios of the aforementioned two strategies and their fusion. Results show that DCNN performs better than ViT in the one-stage strategy, while using ViT as the classification model and DCNN as the regression model can result in the best performance in the two-stage strategy. It is interesting that although the strategy of singly using DCNN wins out over any concerned two-stage strategy, the fusion of the two strategies outperforms either the one-stage strategy or the two-stage strategy. Results also suggest that using smoothing techniques are beneficial for the improvement of estimation accuracy. Overall, the best performance is achieved by using a hybrid strategy that consists of the one-stage strategy, the two-stage strategy and smoothing manipulation. The associated RMSE and MAE values are 9.81 kt and 7.51 kt, which prevail over those from most existing studies.