Estimation of the probability of strongest seismic disasters based on the extreme value theory

Abstract

This paper presents the review of the experience in applying the approach based on the limiting distributions of the extreme value theory (the generalized Pareto distribution, GPS, and generalized extreme value distribution, GEV) for deriving the distributions of maximal magnitudes and related ground accelerations from the earthquakes on the future time intervals of a given duration. The results of analyzing the global and regional earthquake catalogs and the ground peak accelerations during the earthquakes are described. It is shown that the magnitude of the strongest possible earthquake M max (and analogous characteristics for other types of data), which is often used in seismic risk assessment, is potentially unstable. We suggest a stable alternative for M max in the form of quantiles Q q (τ) of the maximal possible earthquake, which could occur during the future time interval of length τ. The quantity of the characteristic maximal event M c, which has been introduced in our previous publications, is another helpful robust scalar parameter. All the cases of approximation of the tails of empirical distributions, which were studied in our works, turned out to be finite (bounded); however, the rightmost point of these distributions, M max, is often poorly detectable and unstable. Therefore, the M max parameter has a low practical value.