Estimation of the input-output balance model for the South of the Tyumen Oblast

Abstract

Subject. Monitoring and predicting the trajectories of the development of regions on the basis of the Leontief balance model. Objectives. Development of the balance tables estimating schemes for the south of the Tyumen Oblast according to statistical data of typical economic indicators. Methods. Two options for solving the problem of estimating balance tables are considered. In the first variant the reference matrix of direct costs is adjusted to the statistical data of the system of national accounts for the Tyumen Oblast. The second variant is to use the industry cost structure for Russia to customize the regional table. Results. In the first approximation, the structure of aggregation of industries into subsystems was chosen in accordance with the development strategy of the Tyumen Oblast until 2030. The obtained images of the tables correspond to the balance ratios and productivity conditions of the Leontief matrix. Conclusions. The results of adjusting the input-output model for the south of the Tyumen Oblast according to the available statistical data in general demonstrate the efficiency of the presented methods for assessing direct cost matrices. The choice of the structure of aggregation of indicators in accordance with the development strategy of the region allows to compare the predicted and model trajectories of economic development for characteristic groups of industries.