Estimation of forest harvesting-induced stream temperature changes and bioenergetic consequences for cutthroat trout in a coastal stream in British Columbia, Canada

We use a predictive model of mean summer stream temperature to assess the vulnerability of USA streams to thermal alteration associated with climate change. The model uses air temperature and watershed features (e.g., watershed area and slope) from 569 US Geological Survey sites in the conterminous USA to predict stream temperatures. We assess the model for predicting climate-related variation in stream temperature by comparing observed and predicted historical stream temperature changes. Analysis of covariance confirms that observed and predicted changes in stream temperatures respond similarly to historical changes in air temperature. When applied to spatially-downscaled future air temperature projections (A2 emission scenario), the model predicts mean warming of 2.2 °C for the conterminous USA by 2100. Stream temperatures are most responsive to climate changes in the Cascade and Appalachian Mountains and least responsive in the southeastern USA. We then use random forests to conduct an empirical sensitivity analysis to identify those stream features most strongly associated with both observed historical and predicted future changes in summer stream temperatures. Larger changes in stream temperature are associated with warmer future air temperatures, greater air temperature changes, and larger watershed areas. Smaller changes in stream temperature are predicted for streams with high initial rates of heat loss associated with longwave radiation and evaporation, and greater base-flow index values. These models provide important insight into the potential extent of stream temperature warming at a near-continental scale and why some streams will likely be more vulnerable to climate change than others.

Stream temperature is an important determinant of fish growth, migration, and survival and can thus impact the structure and function of stream ecosystems. Many streams in Michigan and elsewhere in North America receive groundwater inputs that help regulate instream conditions by stabilizing discharge as well as stream temperature. However, groundwater withdrawal can cause reductions in streamflow which typically results in increased summer stream temperatures. Other atmospheric and hydrologic variables (i.e., overland discharge) also impact the rate at which stream temperature changes as it flows downstream. We deployed paired up‐ and downstream water pressure and temperature loggers within 21 stream reaches throughout the state of Michigan to quantify and model relationships between stream discharge, air temperature, and longitudinal change in stream temperature (i.e., temperature gradient). Using multimodel selection criteria, we evaluated the performance of a hierarchical suite of models that predict temperature gradient as a function of potential driving variables. The multimodel selection criteria identified a best‐fitting model that was able to model the diurnal, seasonal, and annual variations in rates of longitudinal temperature fluctuations across most sample streams. Partial regression analysis indicated that proxy variables representing solar radiation at the stream surface were generally the most influential predictors of longitudinal changes in stream temperature, but air temperature and components of streamflow including groundwater input were significant predictors and important in many streams.

A quantitative evaluation of stream temperature alterations due to a commercial forest harvesting practice and a research treatment is presented. Summer maximum stream temperatures averaged 1 ° C higher in the commercial clearcut and 9 °C higher in the clearcut-herbicided watershed than in the forested control. The largest average monthly temperature increase on the commercial clearcut (2.2 °C) occurred during April; on the clearcut-herbicided basin it occurred during June (10.5 °C). Significant changes in stream temperature were observed on both watersheds as early as February and as late as November. Changes in minimum stream temperatures are presented in detail along with the impact on diel temperature fluctuations. Changes in the stream temperature regimes of the clearcut watersheds from the headwaters to the mouth of the watersheds are also given. Potential impacts of the stream temperature alterations on aquatic ecosystems are summarized in relation to stress limits for brook trout and other organisms.

Worldwide, lack of data on stream temperature has motivated the use of regression-based statistical models to predict stream temperatures based on more widely available data on air temperatures. Such models have been widely applied to project responses of stream temperatures under climate change, but the performance of these models has not been fully evaluated. To address this knowledge gap, we examined the performance of two widely used linear and nonlinear regression models that predict stream temperatures based on air temperatures. We evaluated model performance and temporal stability of model parameters in a suite of regulated and unregulated streams with 11–44 years of stream temperature data. Although such models may have validity when predicting stream temperatures within the span of time that corresponds to the data used to develop them, model predictions did not transfer well to other time periods. Validation of model predictions of most recent stream temperatures, based on air temperature–stream temperature relationships from previous time periods often showed poor performance when compared with observed stream temperatures. Overall, model predictions were less robust in regulated streams and they frequently failed in detecting the coldest and warmest temperatures within all sites. In many cases, the magnitude of errors in these predictions falls within a range that equals or exceeds the magnitude of future projections of climate-related changes in stream temperatures reported for the region we studied (between 0.5 and 3.0 °C by 2080). The limited ability of regression-based statistical models to accurately project stream temperatures over time likely stems from the fact that underlying processes at play, namely the heat budgets of air and water, are distinctive in each medium and vary among localities and through time.

Stream temperature was recorded between 2002 and 2005 at four sites in a coastal headwater catchment in British Columbia, Canada. Shallow groundwater temperatures, along with bed temperature profiles at depths of 1 to 30 cm, were recorded at 10-min intervals in two hydrologically distinct reaches beginning in 2003 or 2004, depending on the site. The lower reach had smaller discharge contributions via lateral inflow from the hillslopes and fewer areas with upwelling (UW) and/or neutral flow across the stream bed compared to the middle reach. Bed temperatures were greater than those of shallow groundwater during summer, with higher temperatures in areas of downwelling (DW) flow compared to areas of neutral and UW flow. A paired-catchment analysis revealed that partial-retention forest harvesting in autumn 2004 resulted in higher daily maximum stream and bed temperatures but smaller changes in daily minima. Changes in daily maximum stream temperature, averaged over July and August of the post-harvest year, ranged from 1.6 to 3 °C at different locations within the cut block. Post-harvest changes in bed temperature in the lower reach were smaller than the changes in stream temperature, greater at sites with DW flow, and decreased with depth at both UW and DW sites, dropping to about 1 °C at a depth of 30 cm. In the middle reach, changes in daily maximum bed temperature, averaged over July and August, were generally about 1 °C and did not vary significantly with depth. The pre-harvest regression models for shallow groundwater were not suitable for applying the paired-catchment analysis to estimate the effects of harvesting. However, shallow groundwater was warmer at the lower reach following harvesting, despite generally cooler weather compared to the pre-harvest year. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A catchment-scale assessment of stream temperature response to contemporary forest harvesting in the Oregon Coast Range

Can brook trout survive climate change in large rivers? If it rains

Abstract. Water temperature is a primary physical factor regulating the persistence and distribution of aquatic taxa. Considering projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation in the coming century, accurate assessment of suitable thermal habitats in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species' responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream temperature model and downscaled general circulation model outputs to explore the spatially and temporally varying changes in stream temperature for the late 21st century at the subbasin and ecological province scale for the Columbia River basin (CRB). On average, stream temperatures are projected to increase 3.5 °C for the spring, 5.2 °C for the summer, 2.7 °C for the fall, and 1.6 °C for the winter. While results indicate changes in stream temperature are correlated with changes in air temperature, our results also capture the important, and often ignored, influence of hydrological processes on changes in stream temperature. Decreases in future snowcover will result in increased thermal sensitivity within regions that were previously buffered by the cooling effect of flow originating as snowmelt. Other hydrological components, such as precipitation, surface runoff, lateral soil water flow, and groundwater inflow, are negatively correlated to increases in stream temperature depending on the ecological province and season. At the ecological province scale, the largest increase in annual stream temperature was within the Mountain Snake ecological province, which is characterized by migratory coldwater fish species. Stream temperature changes varied seasonally with the largest projected stream temperature increases occurring during the spring and summer for all ecological provinces. Our results indicate that stream temperatures are driven by local processes and ultimately require a physically explicit modeling approach to accurately characterize the habitat regulating the distribution and diversity of aquatic taxa.

Long-term open-water season stream temperature variations and changes over Lena River Basin in Siberia

Analysis of stream temperature and heat budget in an urban river under strong anthropogenic influences

Stream temperature is directly and indirectly affected by climate change. To be able to project future changes in stream temperature, historic trends and factors influencing these trends need to be understood. There is a demand for daily data to analyse historical trends and future changes in stream temperature. However, long-term daily stream temperature data are rare and observations of coarse temporal resolution (e.g. once-a-month) do not allow for robust trend analyses. Here, we present a methodology to reconstruct a national long-term daily stream temperature record (1960–2080) from 40 years of once-a-month observations (for 45 Scottish catchments). This involved implementing climatic and hydrological variables in generalized additive models. These models were then used in combination with regional climate projections (UKCP18 Strand 3 - RCP8.5) to predict future spatio-temporal temperature patterns.The results indicate that for the Scottish dataset (i) in addition to air temperature, the dominant environmental controls on stream temperature are unique combinations for each catchment; (ii) a general increase of up to 0.06 °C/year in historic stream temperature over all catchments resulted mainly from increases in spring and summer stream temperatures; (iii) future spatial patterns in stream temperature are more homogenous and differ therefore from the past where temperatures in N Scotland were relatively lower; (iv) future changes of up to +4.0 °C in annual stream temperature are strongest in those catchments which show lower stream temperature in the past (NW and W Scotland). These results are important in the context of water quality and stream temperature management. The methodology can be applied to smaller scale sites or to other national/global datasets enabling the analysis of historic trends and future changes at a high temporal resolution.

Understanding how changes in stream temperature affect survival and growth of coldwater fishes, including brown trout (Salmo trutta) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), is important for conserving coldwater stream fisheries in a changing climate. However, some contemporary stream temperature models assume spatially uniform (i.e. unrealistic) air–stream temperature relationships or demand hydrometeorological predictors (e.g. solar radiation and convection) that are expensive and often impractical for fisheries managers to measure. As such, we produced a relatively cost‐effective, management‐relevant modelling approach for predicting effects of changes in air temperature, precipitation and groundwater inputs on stream temperature and, consequently, the survival and growth of brown trout and rainbow trout in Michigan, USA. We found that precipitation‐ and groundwater‐corrected stream temperature models (mean adjusted R2 = .77, range = 0.65–0.88) performed better than linear air–stream temperature models (mean adjusted R2 = .59, range = 0.21–0.80). Stream temperature was projected to increase by 0.07–3.88°C (1%–22%) with simulated changes in air temperature, precipitation and groundwater inputs. The greatest warming was predicted for surface runoff‐dominated sites with limited groundwater‐driven thermal buffering, where thermal habitat suitability for salmonid survival and growth declined 20%–40%. However, groundwater‐dominated sites may not be immune to temperature warming, especially if groundwater temperature increases or groundwater inputs decline in a changing climate. Our modelling approach provides a reliable, cost‐effective method for predicting effects of climate change on brown trout and rainbow trout survival and growth, allowing for strategic management actions to increase the thermal resilience and sustainability of salmonid populations (e.g. groundwater conservation and riparian/watershed rehabilitation).

The relative impact of a large upstream dam versus in‐reach groundwater pumping on stream temperatures was analyzed for humid, semiarid, and arid conditions with long dry seasons to represent typical climate regions where large dams are present, such as the western United States or eastern Australia. Stream temperatures were simulated using the CE‐QUAL‐W2 water quality model over a 110 km model grid, with the presence or absence of a dam at the top of the reach and pumping in the lower 60 km of the reach. Measured meteorological data from three representative locations were used as model input to simulate the impact of varying climate conditions on streamflow and stream temperature. For each climate condition four hypothetical streamflow scenarios were modeled: (1) natural (no dam or pumping), (2) large upstream dam present, (3) dam with in‐reach pumping, and (4) no dam with pumping, resulting in 12 cases. Dam removal, in the presence or absence of pumping, resulted in significant changes in stream temperature throughout the year for all three climate conditions. From March to August, the presence of a dam caused monthly mean stream temperatures to decrease on average by approximately 3.0°C, 2.5°C, and 2.0°C for the humid, semiarid, and arid conditions, respectively; however, stream temperatures generally increased from September to February. Pumping caused stream temperatures to warm in summer and cool in winter by generally less than 0.5°C because of a smaller pumping‐induced alteration in streamflow relative to the dam. Though the presence or absence of a large dam led to greater changes in stream temperature than the presence or absence of pumping, ephemeral conditions were increased both temporally and spatially because of pumping.

Warming temperatures from climate change are altering the distributions and abundances of many species. Aquatic organisms, however, may be buffered from the immediate impacts of air temperature change due to the thermal inertia of water. The extent of this buffering in freshwater ecosystems will determine the fate and possible management strategies for many ecologically and economically important species. Using 11 years of air and stream temperature data collected from an uninhabited New Hampshire watershed, we investigated the relationship between air and water temperature change throughout the summer months. Maximum daily stream temperatures during the summer months are known to influence the distribution and phenology of aquatic organisms. As such, we built a predictive model of maximum daily stream temperature as a function of air temperature change, discharge and stream order. Diurnal changes in stream temperatures and changes in stream temperature through the summer consistently lagged changes in air temperature, and deviations in daily air temperatures from seasonally predicted means were a strong driver of water temperatures. A mean increase in residual air temperature over the past 5 days of 1.0°C corresponded to a 0.5–0.8°C increase in maximum daily stream temperature. Smaller, headwater streams were colder and less sensitive to changes in air temperature. Although stream temperatures did not increase as much as air temperatures, our results suggest that even small increases in water temperatures will extend the duration of physiologically stressful conditions for biota in this watershed. Thus, preserving thermal heterogeneity and unrestricted access to thermal refuges may be key for species’ persistence. We encourage continued use of monitoring data to document within‐stream and within‐watershed thermal heterogeneity and to generate stream temperature models. These tools will be key for developing management strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on streams and their biota.

Stream temperature will be subject to changes because of atmospheric warming in the future. We investigated the effects of the diurnal timing of air temperature changes – daytime warming versus nighttime warming – on stream temperature. Using the physically based model, Heat Source, we performed a sensitivity analysis of summer stream temperatures to three diurnal air temperature distributions of +4 °C mean air temperature: i) uniform increase over the whole day, ii) warmer daytime and iii) warmer nighttime. The stream temperature model was applied to a 37‐km section of the Middle Fork John Day River in northeastern Oregon, USA. The three diurnal air temperature distributions generated 7‐day average daily maximum stream temperatures increases of approximately +1.8 °C ± 0.1 °C at the downstream end of the study section. The three air temperature distributions, with the same daily mean, generated different ranges of stream temperatures, different 7‐day average daily maximum temperatures, different durations of stream temperature changes and different average daily temperatures in most parts of the reach. The stream temperature changes were out of phase with air temperature changes, and therefore in many places, the greatest daytime increase in stream temperature was caused by nighttime warming of air temperatures. Stream temperature changes tended to be more extreme and of longer duration when driven by air temperatures concentrated in either daytime or nighttime instead of uniformly distributed across the diurnal cycle. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.