Estimation of fiscal rule impact on Russian ruble equilibrium exchange rate

Abstract

This paper describes a new approach that makes it possible to assess the impact of foreign exchange interventions implemented under the fiscal rule on the Russian ruble equilibrium exchange rate. The essence of the approach is to quantify the impact of foreign exchange interventions carried out within the framework of the fiscal rule on the balance of supply and demand of foreign exchange, and to reflect this influence in macroeconomic models using the “effective” oil price indicator. The article describes in detail the calculation of this indicator. The advantage of using the “effective” oil price indicator compared to alternative methods lies in the efficiency (the ability to apply for monthly data), simplicity (the possibility of using for scenario forecasting of the exchange rate), as well as the flexibility of the method (the possibility of taking into account periods of suspension of the fiscal rule and deferred purchases). The current gap in the real effective exchange rate of Russian ruble was calculated based on the data for February 2008 — October 2019. The assessment of the contribution of the fiscal rule to the equilibrium value of the real exchange rate was about 2 pp., at the end of 2019 Russian ruble was overvalued.