Estimation of chilling and heat accumulation periods of the olive tree in a warm and sub-humid climate, using the partial least squares (PLS) regression

Studies on variations in chilling and heat accumulation in apple trees and their effects on first flowering date under climate change are important for guiding apple planting and productions. In this study, we carried out experiments in representative stations of apple planting areas in the northern China, including Fushan of Shandong, Wanrong of Shanxi, Xifeng of Gansu and Akesu of Xinjiang. The first flowering data and hourly temperature data during 1996-2018 were used to calculate the daily chilling and heat accumulation units by applying the dynamic model and growing degree hour model. Partial least squares regression (PLS) correlated daily chilling and heat units with the first flowering dates was used to identify the chilling and heat accumulation periods for apple flowering. We evaluated the impacts of temperatures during these periods on apples' flowering. Our results showed that the chilling accumulation period of apple trees in the examined sites started at October 1, ended in late February or mid-March, with chilling accumulations of 74.1-89.3 CP (chill portion). The heat accumulation periods were from late January to the first flowering dates with the heat accumulation of 4010-5770 GDH (growing degree hour). The chilling accumulation at Xifeng and Akesu was correlated positively with mean temperature during the respective accumulation period, with 3.8 and 5.0 CP enhancement following 1 ℃ increase during the accumulation period. Heat accumulation at all stations correlated positively with mean temperature during the respective accumulation period, with 725-967 GDH enhancement following a 1 ℃ increase during the accumulation period. Compared to the effects of chilling accumulation on tree flowering, the first flowering data of apples in the main planting areas were mainly affected by mean temperature during the heat accumulation period. Climate warming is beneficial for apple blossom and production in the areas with low mean temperature during the chilling accumulation period.

Temperate-zone trees must fulfill cultivar-specific chilling and heat requirements during the dormant period, in order to produce leaves and flowers in the following growing season. Timing and accumulation rate of chill and heat are understood to determine the timing of spring events, but both processes are difficult to observe in dormant tree buds. Where long-term phenological observations are available, Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression offers a statistical opportunity to delineate phases of chill and heat accumulation and determine the climatic requirements of trees. This study uses PLS regression to explore how the timing of spring events of chestnut in China, cherry in Germany and walnut in California is related to variation in the daily rates of chill and heat accumulation, as calculated with horticultural models. Dependent variables were 39 years of flowering dates for chestnuts in Beijing (China), 25 years of cherry bloom in Klein-Altendorf (Germany) and 54 years of walnut leaf emergence in Davis (California, USA). These were related to daily accumulation rates of chill, calculated with the Dynamic Model, and heat, calculated with the Growing Degree Hours Model. Compared to an earlier version of the procedure, in which phenological dates were related to unprocessed temperature data, delineation of chilling and forcing phases was much clearer when using horticultural metrics to quantify chill and heat. Chestnut bloom in the cold-winter climate of Beijing was found to depend primarily on the rate of heat accumulation, while cherry bloom in the temperate climate of Germany showed dependence on both chill and heat accumulation rates. The timing of walnut leaf emergence in the mild-winter climate of California depended much more strongly on chill accumulation rates. Chilling (in Chill Portions=CP) and heat (in Growing Degree Hours=GDH) requirements determined based on PLS regression were 79.8±5.3 CP and 13,466±1918 GDH for chestnut bloom in Beijing, 104.2±8.9 CP and 2698±1183 GDH for cherry bloom in Germany, and 37.5±5.0 CP and 11,245±1697 GDH for walnut leaf emergence in California. Spring phases of cherry in Klein-Altendorf and especially chestnut in Beijing will likely continue to advance in response to global warming, while for walnut in California, inadequate chilling may cause delays in flowering and leaf emergence. Such delays could serve as an early-warning indicator that future productivity may be threatened by climate change. The R package ‘chillR’ makes the method used in this study available for wider use.

Most trees from temperate climates require the accumulation of winter chill and subsequent heat during their dormant phase to resume growth and initiate flowering in the following spring. Global warming could reduce chill and hence hamper the cultivation of high-chill species such as cherries. Yet determining chilling and heat requirements requires large-scale controlled-forcing experiments, and estimates are thus often unavailable. Where long-term phenology datasets exist, partial least squares (PLS) regression can be used as an alternative, to determine climatic requirements statistically. Bloom dates of cherry cv. ‘Schneiders späte Knorpelkirsche’ trees in Klein-Altendorf, Germany, from 24 growing seasons were correlated with 11-day running means of daily mean temperature. Based on the output of the PLS regression, five candidate chilling periods ranging in length from 17 to 102 days, and one forcing phase of 66 days were delineated. Among three common chill models used to quantify chill, the Dynamic Model showed the lowest variation in chill, indicating that it may be more accurate than the Utah and Chilling Hours Models. Based on the longest candidate chilling phase with the earliest starting date, cv. ‘Schneiders späte Knorpelkirsche’ cherries at Bonn exhibited a chilling requirement of 68.6 ± 5.7 chill portions (or 1,375 ± 178 chilling hours or 1,410 ± 238 Utah chill units) and a heat requirement of 3,473 ± 1,236 growing degree hours. Closer investigation of the distinct chilling phases detected by PLS regression could contribute to our understanding of dormancy processes and thus help fruit and nut growers identify suitable tree cultivars for a future in which static climatic conditions can no longer be assumed. All procedures used in this study were bundled in an R package (‘chillR’) and are provided as Supplementary materials. The procedure was also applied to leaf emergence dates of walnut (cv. ‘Payne’) at Davis, California.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00484-012-0594-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

This study aimed to analyze the economic profitability of irrigation under hydrological risk. Towards this end, two hill lakes located in different climatic conditions (sub-humid and semi-arid climates) were selected and a chance constraint linear programming model was used. The model incorporated the uncertainty of water supply at exceedance probability of 80, 90, 95 and 99%. The results showed that in a sub-humid climate, there are 100 and 95% chances to meet monthly water requirements for winter and summer crops, respectively. The impact of a small dam on local farming economic profitability was highly significant. Both environmental and socio-economic objectives can be achieved. In a semi-arid climate, results showed that, at the 90% water supply reliability, only winter crops and olive trees were included in the optimal cropping pattern under deficit irrigation and on a limited area. Summer crops were not recommended. The economic profitability of irrigation around the small dam would be strongly reduced. Therefore, the objective to improve the population well-being in arid and semi-arid regions assigned to these structures is not likely to be achieved. As the public budget allocated to environment protection becomes more and more restraint, this study suggests implementing hill lakes first in areas where their economic and environmental efficiency is proven.

Key insights for improved climate change adaptation strategies: Assessing chilling and heat requirements of Prunus cultivars (Prunus sp.) in warm climate regions

Simple SummaryVarroa is a parasite of honeybees and is one of the main problems that beekeeping faces worldwide: it affects honey production and is involved in colony losses reported in some parts of the world. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of honeybee genetic origin, climate type and the interactions between these two variables on the prevalence and infestation levels of Varroa in a large population of 1134 colonies. The morphotype, haplotype and climate type of each colony were determined. The results indicate that the climate has an effect on the prevalence and infestation levels of Varroa: both were higher in the temperate sub-humid climate than in the semi-warm climate and the warm sub-humid climate. The morphotype has no effect: there were no differences between Africanized, European and Hybrid honeybees for the prevalence and infestations levels of Varroa. The haplotype has an effect on prevalence but not on infestation levels, and the African haplotype has a higher prevalence than the European haplotype, but no differences were found between the two haplotypes for infestation levels of Varroa. Correlations between Varroa infestation levels and mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, winter precipitation and the Lang index were found.The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of honeybee genetic origin, climate type and the interactions between these variables on the prevalence and infestation levels of Varroa in a large population of honeybee colonies (n = 1134). For each colony, the morphotype, haplotype and climate type were determined. No differences between the Africanized, European and Hybrid morphotypes were found for the prevalence and infestation levels of Varroa (p > 0.05). Differences between honeybee haplotypes were found for the prevalence of Varroa (p < 0.05), and the prevalence was higher in the African haplotype than in the European haplotype. No differences between honeybee haplotypes were found for the infestation levels of Varroa (p > 0.05). Differences were found between climate type for the prevalence and infestation levels of Varroa (p < 0.05): the temperate sub-humid climate had a higher prevalence and higher infestation levels than the semi-warm climate and the warm sub-humid climate. Correlations between the infestation levels of Varroa and mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, winter precipitation and Lang index were found.

Ginseng is a perennial herbaceous plant that has been widely consumed for medicinal and dietary purposes since ancient times. Ginseng plants require shade and cool temperatures for better growth; climate warming and rising heat waves have a negative impact on the plants’ productivity and yield quality. Since Republic of Korea’s temperature is increasing beyond normal expectations and is seriously threatening ginseng plants, an early-stage non-destructive diagnosis of stressed ginseng plants is essential before symptomatic manifestation to produce high-quality ginseng roots. This study demonstrated the potential of fluorescence hyperspectral imaging to achieve the early high-throughput detection and prediction of chlorophyll composition in four varieties of heat-stressed ginseng plants: Chunpoong, Jakyeong, Sunil, and Sunmyoung. Hyperspectral imaging data of 80 plants from these four varieties (temperature-sensitive and temperature-resistant) were acquired before and after exposing the plants to heat stress. Additionally, a SPAD-502 meter was used for the non-destructive measurement of the greenness level. In accordance, the mean spectral data of each leaf were extracted from the region of interest (ROI). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was applied for the discrimination of heat-stressed plants, which was performed with 96% accuracy. Accordingly, the extracted spectral data were used to develop a partial least squares regression (PLSR) model combined with multiple preprocessing techniques for predicting greenness composition in ginseng plants that significantly correlates with chlorophyll concentration. The results obtained from PLSR analysis demonstrated higher determination coefficients of R2val = 0.90, and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.59%. Furthermore, five proposed bands (683 nm, 688 nm, 703 nm, 731 nm, and 745 nm) by stepwise regression (SR) were developed into a PLSR model, and the model coefficients were used to create a greenness-level concentration in images that showed differences between the control and heat-stressed plants for all varieties.

Impact of indoor air volume on thermal performance in social housing with mixed mode ventilation in three different climates

The physical characteristics of surface sediments from a suite of pristine lakes on Signy Island, maritime Antarctic, were used to develop a quantitative link between catchment ice-extent and lake-sediment response. Percentage dry weight, median particle size, percentage loss-on-ignition and wet density of the lakes' surface sediments were the most significant variables explaining contemporary catchment ice-extent. Two independent reconstruction models – Partial Least Squares (PLS) and a Modern Analog Technique (MAT) – were applied to dated sediment cores at two sites on Signy Island. The validity of the reconstructions was tested against historical information on catchment ice-extent. With sufficiently high sedimentation rates and sampling resolution, the models can predict sub-decadal changes in ice-extent. The model results are best regarded as indicators of erosion resulting from meltwater activity in the catchment. Comparison of results with Twentieth Century climate records affirms the hypothesis that climatic warming is the most likely cause for the ice retreat observed on Signy Island during the last 40 yrs. Similar reconstruction models using these simple sedimentary measures could be developed for analogous locations in the Antarctic and in Arctic and Alpine regions.

Laboratory-based Vis–NIR spectroscopy and partial least square regression with spatially correlated errors for predicting spatial variation of soil organic matter content

Temperature variability associated with respiratory disease hospitalisations, hospital stays and hospital expenses the warm temperate sub-humid monsoon climate

The landform of the study area is defined as a small-scale alluvial plain in the valley bottom adjacent to the coast. By the aggradation of alluvial materials, this valley bottom plain was formed in dissected parts of low hills. For the purpose of reconstructing the palaeo climate environment in this study, δ C analysis and soil organic carbon analysis are therefore employed. Main results of this study are as follows: Section I: the period of 6,600±60 yr B.P.-5,350±60 yr B.P. was mostly in warm and humid climate environment. A little changes of the humid environment are detected as sub- dry (or sub-humid)→humid in terms of the dryness and wetness. Section II: the period of 5,350±60 yr B.P.-2,200 yr B.P. was in warm and humid climate environment, which is similar to the present. However, The sediments between 4,720± 60 yr B.P. and 4,210±50 yr B.P. experienced the most humid climate environment of all studied sedimentary layers. After 4,210±50 yr B.P., the environment started to change from the humid to the sub-humid (or sub-dry) climate. Section III: the period of 2,200 yr B.P.-210±60 yr B.P. was distinguish from previous two sections as the environmental changes to sub-humid (or sub-dry) climate was apparent.

Combining PLS regression with portable NIR spectroscopy to on-line monitor quality parameters in intact olives for determining optimal harvesting time

Modeling wheat and triticale winter hardiness under current and predicted winter scenarios for Central Europe: A focus on deacclimation

Performance of pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) in warming Mediterranean orchards