Estimating the Effect of Conflict on Food Supply at the National Level

Abstract

Significant progress has been made in improving global food security, yet some countries still face severe challenges. In some cases, violent armed conflict has potentially contributed to local food insecurity due to disruption of food production and agricultural markets. Despite the relevance of this topic in context of tracking global food security, there is a paucity of empirical work examining this cross-country variation. Therefore, this study uses country-level data, covering 106 countries in Africa, Asia, Central and South America between 1961–2011, to estimate the relation between conflict and food security. Results show that conflict is associated with a large estimated reduction in the national dietary energy supply and highlight the negative correlation between conflict and food security, illustrating how certain types of conflict could potentially undo years of progress.