Abstract

A set of migration data in China was used to estimate a multilevel Poisson migration model. The model explained 65.9% of the variation in 1995–2000, which is greater than the 29.8% explained by the ordinary least squares extended gravity model. Two income variables had positive impact on migration, confirming the importance of income in internal migration in China. A decomposition approach was then used to estimate the effects of spatial structure and the origin and destination attributes on migration in China. The space effect on in-migration was the highest in the eastern coastal regions in China, spanning from Zhejiang to Hebei. Many regions in the central part of China have relatively large positive attribute distribution effects. Several regions, including Beijing, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, have outstanding pull effects, the own attribute effect, on migration.

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