Abstract
In Finland, the pandemic influenza virus A(H1N1)pdm09 was the dominant influenza strain during the pandemic season in 2009/2010 and presented alongside other influenza types during the 2010/2011 season. The true number of infected individuals is unknown, as surveillance missed a large portion of mild infections. We applied Bayesian evidence synthesis, combining available data from the national infectious disease registry with an ascertainment model and prior information on A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza and the surveillance system, to estimate the total incidence and hospitalization rate of A(H1N1)pdm09 infection. The estimated numbers of A(H1N1)pdm09 infections in Finland were 211 000 (4% of the population) in the 2009/2010 pandemic season and 53 000 (1% of the population) during the 2010/2011 season. Altogether, 1·1% of infected individuals were hospitalized. Only 1 infection per 25 was ascertained.
Highlights
After the first case of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 in Finland in 2009, findings positive for A (H1N1)pdm09 were recorded in a specific data collection field in the surveillance system of the National Infectious Disease Registry (NIDR)
Only cases admitted to intensive care (IC) and cases with fatal outcome were recorded in this system
The data on hospitalized cases were specific to A(H1N1)pdm09
Summary
Our aim was to estimate the true numbers of individuals with each of the three infection outcomes based on the numbers of ascertained cases and knowledge on the surveillance practice in Finland and epidemics in other countries
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