Estimating baseline vehicular emissions for paratransit modes in sub-Saharan African cities: insights from Accra, Ghana and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Solely economic mitigation strategy suggests upward revision of nationally determined contributions

Abstract. Parties to the Paris Agreement (PA, 2015) outline their planned contributions towards achieving the PA temperature goal to “hold […] the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 ∘C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ∘C” (Article 2.1.a, PA) in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Most NDCs include targets to mitigate national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which need quantifications to assess i.a. whether the current NDCs collectively put us on track to reach the PA temperature goals or the gap in ambition to do so. We implemented the new open-source tool “NDCmitiQ” to quantify GHG mitigation targets defined in the NDCs for all countries with quantifiable targets on a disaggregated level and to create corresponding national and global emissions pathways. In light of the 5-year update cycle of NDCs and the global stocktake, the quantification of NDCs is an ongoing task for which NDCmitiQ can be used, as calculations can easily be updated upon submission of new NDCs. In this paper, we describe the methodologies behind NDCmitiQ and quantification challenges we encountered by addressing a wide range of aspects, including target types and the input data from within NDCs; external time series of national emissions, population, and GDP; uniform approach vs. country specifics; share of national emissions covered by NDCs; how to deal with the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) component and the conditionality of pledges; and establishing pathways from single-year targets. For use in NDCmitiQ, we furthermore construct an emissions data set from the baseline emissions provided in the NDCs. Example use cases show how the tool can help to analyse targets on a national, regional, or global scale and to quantify uncertainties caused by a lack of clarity in the NDCs. Results confirm that the conditionality of targets and assumptions about economic growth dominate uncertainty in mitigated emissions on a global scale, which are estimated as 48.9–56.1 Gt CO2 eq. AR4 for 2030 (10th/90th percentiles, median: 51.8 Gt CO2 eq. AR4; excluding LULUCF and bunker fuels; submissions until 17 April 2020 and excluding the USA). We estimate that 77 % of global 2017 emissions were emitted from sectors and gases covered by these NDCs. Addressing all updated NDCs submitted by 31 December 2020 results in an estimated 45.6–54.1 Gt CO2 eq. AR4 (median: 49.6 Gt CO2 eq. AR4, now including the USA again) and increased coverage.

Climate change has emerged as one of the greatest challenges faced by the world today. Adverse impacts of climate change are visible across sectors like agriculture and other natural resources due to increasing average temperature and changing weather patterns. Africa constitutes around 13% of the global population but contributes the least (around 2%) to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Concerning the global climate vulnerability index, Africa is most impacted (around 21%) by climate change and its’ population is most vulnerable to climate sensitivity and fragility of the continent’s natural environment and increasingly erratic weather patterns, low adoption of climate-resilient technologies, and high dependence on environment-based livelihoods. Hence, Africa needs to adopt low carbon and climate-resilient development to address climate-related issues and to have sustainable development. In line with the low carbon/climate-resilient development agenda, 53 countries (except Libya) have submitted Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and have set ambitious targets under NDC and Sustainable Development Goals. A quick analysis of the NDCs and various studies indicates the enormity of the financing needs. According to Climate Invetsment Funds (CFI), Sub-Saharan Africa will require an estimated USD222 billion for climate resilience investments to reach its NDCs. One of the critical stakeholders to play a key role in meeting the financing needs of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) related targets is the private sector. There is around 98% gap in financing for CSA. Even though substantial climate finance potential exists in selected countries for the private sector, there are certain challenges and barriers like financial, policy, lack of awareness, and low provision for climate funding in the national budget.

This technical note describes a method for determining whether and to what extent Parties to the Paris Agreement have enhanced their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) with respect to greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. We estimate each Party’s target-year GHG emissions under its previous NDC (typically First NDC) and under its subsequent NDC (typically Updated First NDC or Second NDC). On this basis, we determine whether the subsequent NDC reduces emissions relative to the previous NDC and—where possible—by how much. We outline approaches for NDCs with GHG reduction targets and with non-GHG targets and policies.

The Paris Agreement establishes provisions for using international carbon market mechanisms to achieve nationally determined contribution (NDCs). In international negotiations on the rules governing the Agreement, an important question is whether and under which conditions mitigation outcomes that are not covered by the scope of NDCs should be eligible for international transfer and use by another country to achieve its NDC. Allowing the transfer and use of outside-scope mitigation could facilitate the identification of mitigation potential and reduce the costs of achieving NDCs. It could, however, also provide disincentives for countries to enhance the scope of their NDCs, be perceived as unfair towards countries with similar circumstances and economy-wide targets, reduce countries’ incentives to ensure the quality of carbon market units generated, and lead to double counting. To address these concerns, international rules could: require transferring countries to account for such transfers by applying ‘corresponding adjustments’ even though the emission reductions occur outside the scope of NDCs, or to bring relevant sectors and greenhouse gases into the scope of their next NDCs; adopt safeguards for unit quality, e.g. through international oversight or strict additionality tests; impose other restrictions; and/or require countries to quantify and specify the scope of their NDC in terms of sectors and greenhouses gases covered. Key policy insights: Not allowing the transfer of outside-scope mitigation outcomes, or allowing such transfers without a corresponding adjustment by the transferring country, would both require determining whether a mitigation outcome occurs within or outside the scope of NDCs, which can be difficult in some instances. Requiring corresponding adjustments for outside-scope mitigation is more easily implemented than other options seeking to address possible disincentives for broadening the scope of NDCs but could discourage countries from engaging in outside-scope transfers. Providing temporary exemptions, accompanied by other safeguards such as international oversight and strict additionality tests, may therefore be an appropriate means of giving countries time to build capacity and gather data and to expand their NDCs in the future. Which exemptions apply, and for how long, are important policy choices when balancing different goals, perspectives and practical implementation challenges.

The 2015 Paris Agreement relies on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to outline each country’s policies and plans for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To strengthen global climate action and achieve the Agreement’s temperature goal, it is crucial to enhance the ambition level of NDCs every 5 years. While previous studies have explored the ambition of initial NDCs, limited research has delved into the factors driving the enhancement or lack thereof in NDCs’ emission reduction plans. This study employs a mixed-method design to investigate the determinants of NDC enhancement. First, we analyse the updated or revised NDCs of 111 countries using quantitative methods. Second, we conduct qualitative case studies focusing on Brazil and South Africa. Our findings reveal that countries that engaged in stakeholder consultations with civil society, business, and labour groups prior to developing their updated or revised NDCs were more likely to enhance their greenhouse gas reduction targets. These results are further supported by the case studies. South Africa conducted comprehensive consultations and submitted an enhanced GHG target, while Brazil, which did not arrange open consultations, did not improve its target. This study underscores the significance of comprehensive and transparent stakeholder engagement processes, highlighting their potential to drive enhanced NDCs. By involving diverse stakeholders, including civil society, business, and labour groups, countries can foster greater ambition and effectiveness in their climate action, ultimately contributing to the global effort to combat climate change.

Climate change has emerged as one of the greatest challenges faced by the world today. Adverse impacts of climate change are visible across sectors like agriculture and other natural resources due to increasing average temperature and changing weather patterns. Africa constitutes around 13% of the global population but contributes the least (around 2%) to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Concerning the global climate vulnerability index, Africa is most impacted (around 21%) by climate change and its’ population is most vulnerable to climate sensitivity and fragility of the continent’s natural environment and increasingly erratic weather patterns, low adoption of climate-resilient technologies, and high dependence on environment-based livelihoods. Hence, Africa needs to adopt low carbon and climate-resilient development to address climate-related issues and to have sustainable development. In line with the low carbon/climate-resilient development agenda, 53 countries (except Libya) have submitted Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and have set ambitious targets under NDC and Sustainable Development Goals. A quick analysis of the NDCs and various studies indicates the enormity of the financing needs. According to Climate Invetsment Funds (CFI), Sub-Saharan Africa will require an estimated USD222 billion for climate resilience investments to reach its NDCs. One of the critical stakeholders to play a key role in meeting the financing needs of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) related targets is the private sector. There is around 98% gap in financing for CSA. Even though substantial climate finance potential exists in selected countries for the private sector, there are certain challenges and barriers like financial, policy, lack of awareness, and low provision for climate funding in the national budget.

In the lead‐up to the 2015 Conference of Parties meeting in Paris, 186 countries, representing over 95% of global emissions, submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The NDCs outline national goals for greenhouse gas emission reductions and identify financial needs for unfolding mitigation and adaptation efforts. In this study, we review various analyses of the NDCs that cover the aggregate impact and strength of emissions reduction commitments and discuss recent literature on the adequacy and sectoral focus of the NDCs. We then argue that the NDCs are more than just goal setting reports; they are important discursive documents that are contested, negotiated, and ongoing. To supplement the existing literature, we examine the discursive narratives embedded in the NDCs from the 19 founding nations of the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the top 10 greenhouse gas emitters. Our literature review of quantitative and sectoral aspects of the NDCs highlights the inadequacy of the NDC commitments in the context of limiting warming to 2°C, discusses the uncertainties in the promised mitigation strategies, and identifies the reliance of many countries on policies such as those on forests or renewable energy. Our own analysis of the discourses in the NDCs adds critical depth by highlighting the stark contrasts in NDC discourses between North and South, as well as between historical emitters and emerging economies. These contrasts reflect deeper debates regarding justice and equity between nations within the UNFCCC negotiations.This article is categorized under: Climate and Development > Decoupling Emissions from Development

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), submitted by Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change before and after the 21st Conference of Parties, summarize domestic objectives for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions for the 2025–2030 time horizon. In the absence, for now, of detailed guidelines for the format of NDCs, ancillary data are needed to interpret some NDCs and project GHG emissions in 2030. Here, we provide an analysis of uncertainty sources and their impacts on 2030 global GHG emissions based on the sole and full achievement of the NDCs. We estimate that NDCs project into 56.8–66.5 Gt CO2eq yr−1 emissions in 2030 (90% confidence interval), which is higher than previous estimates, and with a larger uncertainty range. Despite these uncertainties, NDCs robustly shift GHG emissions towards emerging and developing countries and reduce international inequalities in per capita GHG emissions. Finally, we stress that current NDCs imply larger emissions reduction rates after 2030 than during the 2010–2030 period if long-term temperature goals are to be fulfilled. Our results highlight four requirements for the forthcoming ‘climate regime’: a clearer framework regarding future NDCs’ design, an increasing participation of emerging and developing countries in the global mitigation effort, an ambitious update mechanism in order to avoid hardly feasible decarbonization rates after 2030 and an anticipation of steep decreases in global emissions after 2030.

By January 2022, 156 countries had submitted new or updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. This study analyses the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and macroeconomic impacts of the new NDCs. The total impact of the updated unconditional and conditional NDCs of these countries on global emission levels by 2030 is an additional reduction of about 3.8 and 3.9 GtCO2eq, respectively, compared to the previously submitted NDCs as of October 2020. However, this total reduction must be about three times greater to be consistent with keeping global temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and even seven times greater for 1.5 °C. Nine G20 economies have pledged stronger emission reduction targets for 2030 in their updated NDCs, leading to additional aggregated GHG emission reductions of about 3.3 GtCO2eq, compared to those in the previous NDCs. The socio-economic impacts of the updated NDCs are limited in major economies and largely depend on the emission reduction effort included in the NDCs. However, two G20 economies have submitted new targets that will lead to an increase in emissions of about 0.3 GtCO2eq, compared to their previous NDCs. The updated NDCs of non-G20 economies contain further net reductions. We conclude that countries should strongly increase the ambition levels of their updated NDC submissions to keep the climate goals of the Paris Agreement within reach.

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture has become a critical target in national climate change policies. More than 80% of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) refer to the reduction of agricultural emissions, including livestock, in their nationally determined contribution (NDC) to mitigate climate change. The livestock sector in Kenya contributes largely to the gross domestic product and to GHG emissions from the land use sector. The government has recently pledged in its NDC to curb total GHG emissions by 30% by 2030. Quantifying and linking the mitigation potential of farm practices to national targets is required to support realistically the implementation of NDCs. Improvements in feed and manure management represent promising mitigation options for dairy production. This study aimed (i) to assess mitigation and food production benefits of feed and manure management scenarios, including land use changes covering Kenya’s entire dairy production region and (ii) to analyse the contribution of these practices to national targets on milk production and mitigation, and their biophysical feasibility given the availability of arable land. The results indicate that improving forage quality by increasing the use of Napier grass and supplementing dairy concentrates supports Kenya’s NDC target, reduces emission intensities by 26%–31%, partially achieves the national milk productivity target for 2030 by 38%–41%, and shows high feasibility given the availability of arable land. Covering manure heaps may reduce emissions from manure management by 68%. In contrast, including maize silage in cattle diets would not reduce emission intensities due to the risk of ten-fold higher emissions from the conversion of land required to grow additional maize. The shortage of arable land may render the implementation of these improved feed practices largely infeasible. This assessment provides the first quantitative estimates of the potential of feed intensification and manure management to mitigate GHG emissions and to increase milk yields at sectoral-level and at a high spatial resolution for an SSA country. The scientific evidence is tailored to support actual policy and decision-making processes at the national level, such as ‘Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions’. Linking feed intensification and manure management strategies with spatially-explicit estimates of mitigation and food production to national targets may help the sector to access climate financing while contributing to food security.

As of today, access to electricity is still unavailable to 1.1 billion people in the world, half of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Projections suggest that this share will increase, leaving millions of people with limited development prospects. Kenya's nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the 2015 Paris Agreement includes a commitment to expand power supply, and in doing so, provide all its citizens with access to electricity. Access in rural areas, where the majority remains unconnected, is planned to be reached through different technologies. These include mini-grids, which are expected to bring multiple sustainable development benefits. However, comprehensive studies looking at synergies and trade-offs between environmental, social, and economic impacts of mini-grids are scarce. Analyzing the expected contribution of mini-grids to targets such as the NDC and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) can provide evidence-based decision-support to policymakers, thus promoting well-designed and sustainable rural electrification policies. By using the Initiative for Climate Action Transparency (ICAT) Sustainable Development Methodology, this paper goes beyond the calculation of greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts resulting from access to modern electricity, analyzing also other environmental and socio-economic implications of 146 solar PV mini grids under construction in Kenya. Using specific targets from the SDG framework, the paper presents a combined qualitative and quantitative analysis of the extent to which mini-grids can contribute to the implementation of Kenya's NDC and to sustainable development priorities. Key policy insights The deployment of mini-grids is expected to lower the GHG emissions of the villages currently without access to electricity by 71%. This contributes to 0.4% of the current NDC target for the power sector, in line with the capacity of the systems analyzed. This action is expected to also bring about positive impacts on electricity access, indoor air quality, healthcare, education and economic activities, which are found to contribute to 16 SDG targets. Apart from the economic investment required, possible negative impacts are associated with the electronic waste generated at the end-of-life of the mini-grids. Accounting for sustainable development impacts of policies can increase support among policymakers for climate action, and ultimately raise ambition.

The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) aim to attend long-term temperature goals, which have been imposed by the Paris agreement to strengthen climate change efforts. Fossil fuel is the major energy source in power generation in Sri Lanka, contributing 67% of total input energies. Sri Lanka is intended to achieve 70% renewable energy in the power sector by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality in the power sector by 2050 through its NDCs. This study analysed the NDCs in the Sri Lankan power sector. The study was carried out through Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/End-use), a recursive dynamic least-cost optimisation framework based on bottom-up modelling principles. The Sri Lankan Power sector has been categorised into a few sectors based on the fuels used in power generation. It mainly considers thermal coal, thermal oil, and hydro. It will also consider all the existing power generation technologies, committed technologies and technologies identified as candidates. A business-as-usual scenario (BAU) and three alternatives NDC were considered in this study. These NDCs include enhancing renewable energy by adding 3867 MW, converting existing fuel oil-based combined cycle power plants to natural gas and establishing new natural gas plants, and improving the efficiency of transmission and distribution network (lost reduction 0.5% compared with BAU by 2030). The study analysed the output data and confirmed the feasibility of meeting GHG emission reduction targets through consideration of selected NDCs in the time span of 2020-2030. The GHG emissions from the BAU scenario and three countermeasure scenarios were analysed in 2015-2050. The input primary energy supply was determined to compare the variation in energy with the effect of NDCs. KEYWORDS: Power Sector, Nationally Determined Contributions, Sri Lanka, AIM/Enduse, CO2 Mitigation.

Soil carbon is the major active pool of terrestrial carbon, and as such, soil organic carbon (SOC) targets, policies and measures will be pivotal to achieving global climate targets. SOC sequestration may reduce the net annual greenhouse gas emissions from Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use by between 3% and 71%, while simultaneously supporting various ecosystem services. Accurate SOC accounting and monitoring, however, is constrained by various technical challenges related to indicators, rates of SOC change, measuring the impact of management practices on SOC, and the long-term persistence of sequestered SOC. We assessed countries’ pledges to the Paris Agreement for SOC in agriculture to better understand the level, transparency, and specificity of commitments. Reviewing 184 countries’ initial Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), we considered whether SOC was included, what was pledged, the level of ambition promised and the specificity of mitigation targets. Twenty-eight countries referred to SOC in their NDCs, citing quantified or unquantified mitigation targets, national policies or programs, and actions and measures to be implemented in agricultural lands (14), peatlands (6) or wetlands (14). Countries’ reasons for not including SOC in NDCs included the need to prioritize goals of sustainable development and food security above climate mitigation, a lack of incentives for farmers to improve management practices, and the difficulty of accurately monitoring changes in SOC. Including SOC targets in NDCs can improve NDCs’ comprehensiveness and transparency to track and compare policy progress across NDCs; it can also leverage SOC-related climate finance, technical support, and capacity building. Key policy insights Many NDCs specify practices known to have the potential to achieve SOC sequestration or protection without explicitly mentioning SOC. The SOC-related mitigation potential of these practices can be quantified in future NDCs. NDCs are not presently a good indicator of countries’ interest or commitment to SOC action at national level. To improve this, countries with existing SOC policies, programs, and actions can specify their SOC-related commitments in future NDCs. Increased collaboration between countries with experience managing SOC and countries needing support to develop SOC-related targets, policies, measures and incentives for land users and farmers would facilitate the provision of such needed support. To increase country commitments and attention to managing SOC, there is a need for improved SOC measurement and monitoring, for better evidence on the impacts of management practices on SOC, and for incentives for farmers to change practices and overcome barriers.

In its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), Mexico is committed to reducing unconditionally 22 and 51% of its emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and black carbon, respectively, by 2030, with an emission peak in 2026. Additional reductions of 36 and 70%, respectively, are proposed conditioned to support from other parties. In this work, the percentage of reduction to reach the emission mitigation targets that Mexico proposed in its NDC is estimated. The results show that in order to meet its unconditional NDC, Mexico should start mitigation in 2020 with a 1.5% reduction rate until 2030 and a 3.3% reduction rate by 2050, to reach an emission peak in 2023. To meet the conditional NDC, a 3.1% emission reduction rate until 2030 should be applied, with peak emission in 2021, and 5.8% from 2030 to 2050. In none of these estimates an emission peak in 2026 matches the NDC mitigation options. Furthermore, none of the emissions reduction pathways estimated in this study fulfills the conditional or unconditional contribution and peaks in 2026 at the same time. Mexico has a long history in international climate policy and is a key emerging economy among the top 15 highest GHG emitters. If Mexico does not achieve its NDC, the international implications, both political and climatic, could put the NDC model at risk if there are more large emitters that do not comply with their contribution.