Abstract
Errors in order forecasts are a salient source of inefficiencies in retail supply chains. Many operational decisions made by suppliers hinge on order forecasts, which typically are based solely on either order or point-of-sale (POS) history. Using a discrete-time formulation, this research demonstrates that if a supplier knows that a retailer is using a base stock policy, it should use that knowledge to forecast the retailer's orders, even if the supplier does not know the base stock level and/or have access to POS data.
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