Abstract
We illustrate a suitable adaptation and modification of classical epidemic evolution models that proves helpful in the study of Covid-19 spread in Italy.
Highlights
Covid-19 pandemic has brought the importance of mathematical modeling to predict phenomena, even in the presence of great uncertainty, before the eyes of the whole society
On the base of the experience gained with other epidemics, they could only recommend an immediate lockdown to try to reduce the damage
Politicians were in serious difficulty to make such drastic decisions that could have had serious economic and social consequences. At this point the mathematicians entered the field and the forecast based on mathematical models became the landmark to which everyone clung
Summary
Covid-19 pandemic has brought the importance of mathematical modeling to predict phenomena, even in the presence of great uncertainty, before the eyes of the whole society. The School is called to this mission, but all the researches should contribute.The present article, written in this spirit, aims to present some elementary models on epidemics spread and to discuss their possible use in the study of Covid-19 in Italy. The essential reason is that the two main parameters that control the degree of infectiveness and that of healing are assumed constant This is not true at all in Covid-19 because the containment measures have strongly interacted with the epidemic spread. For this reason we introduce a suitable modification of the point of view that produces an adaptated SIR* model, useful and effective to describe Covid-19 spread.In this way, we am to spread the spirit of mathematical modeling and to highlight some fundamental attribute together with critical aspects. Numerical data processing and graphic representations were carried out using Wolfram’s Mathematica 11
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