Environmental Quality: The Effect of Military Preparations

Poverty and HIV in sub-Saharan Africa

Gross national product (GNP) is considered as one of the important indicators that reflect the ability of national economy to achieve the main objectives of the state including creation of employment opportunities, development of export potentials, and positive contribution in reduction of the deficits in the balance of payments and the balance of trade. Analysis of the most important components of the gross national income is of considerable importance that enables the identification of changing values of individual components of the gross national product. The study aimed at identifying causes of imbalance in the national economy through the following determination of the relative importance of Egyptian GNP and development of important economic indicators in the Egyptian national economy. Analysis and identification of the most important economic factors affecting expenditure on consumption, investment, exports and imports are mode through building single and multiple equation models aiming at identifying the most important economic factors affecting variables of the study. Moreover, forecasting the most are also mode important variables until.2020. Results obtained indicated that the household consumer expenditure in 2012 was equal to 158.5 billion Dollars representing 58% of the GNP, followed by Investment expenditure, representing 18% of GNP, followed by government expenditure, total exports and total imports representing 9%, 8% and 7%, respectively. Results obtained proved that the most important economic indicators increased annually with different rates during the study period. Studying of the mutual impact between GNP and the study variables through building an econometric model and applying two stage least square method. The model contains six equations for GNP, total investments, total imports, total exports, government expenditure, and household expenditure. In addition, an identification equation for the (GNP= household expenditure + Investment expenditure + Government expenditure + net international trade). The study proved that while the most important determinants of the Egyptian GNPare total investments, total exports and imports factors, mostly affect total investment are total GNP, total Egyptian exports and exchange rate Egyptian Pound. In addition, factors determining total Egyptian Imports are total exports and the exchange rate of the Egyptian Pound. Moreover, factors determining government expenditure are total exports and households consumption. Furthermore, the household consumption is highly affected by GNP and total indirect taxes. Forecasted values of the study variables are obtained by estimating single equation trend model and simultaneous equation model. Results obtained indicated that the forecasted value of the Egyptian GNP in 2020 will be equal to 334$ and 335 billion Dollars using single trend equation and simultaneous equation models, respectively. The forecasted total investment in 2020 is expected to be equal 64 billion dollars. The forecasted Total Egyptian imports and exports using single trend equation are 33.2, and 29.2, billion dollars, respectively. The forecasted values of total exports and imports in 2020 using simultaneous equation model are 32.8, and 830.1, respectively. Regarding Government expenditure results obtained indicated that the forecasted government expenditure is expected to take values of 31.9 and 51.4 billion dollars using single equation trend model and simultaneous equation model, respectively. Results related to the forecasted household expenditure in 2020 is expected to take values of $206.5 billion and $334 billion using single equation trend model and simultaneous equation model, respectively. Based on the research results, best forecasted values the study variables are obtained by using simultaneous equation models. This may be attributed to the fact that simultaneous equation mod- els takes into account all variables as well as the interactions between variables. Based on results the study recommend that the state would give the highest priority to economic policy that would lead to rationalization of household expenditure. In addition, aiming at reducing the Egyptian trade balance, policies that would lead to reduction of the gap between imports and exports by limiting imports and encouraging exports are highly recommended. Moreover, policies that increase and encourage investment, limit inflation, and control of prices of goods and services are expected to have positive impact on the Egyptian economy.

Renal replacement therapy in Latin America

Introduction T paper is an update of AlAA Papers 85-4029 presented in October 1985, at the AIAA/AHS/ASEE Aircraft Design Systems and Operations Meeting held in Colorado Springs, Colorado, and 86-2607 presented at the AIAA Aviation Technology Conference Meeting held in September 1986, in Anaheim, California. These papers started with the generally accepted assumption that the general aviation industry's economic health followed the economy, at least since World War II. During the early 1980's, the economy turned down, and general aviation sales also turned down. However, now the economy has recovered and general aviation sales have not. The 1985 paper examined this in a limited way and assessed the cost effectiveness of the general aviation aircraft. A significant drop in general aviation cost effectiveness was identified and some causes examined. Since the economy has been in a state of recovery for at least three years [as shown by both an increase in gross national product (GNP) and the leveling of inflation], if the general aviation industry truly followed the economy, at least some level of sales recovery would have happened by now. Since sales continue to slide, it appears that some factor(s) has taken over. To see if this is the case, several factors have been investigated. Figure 1 is a plot of total unit sales since 1946. Figure 2 is the same plot with some trend lines added. From about 1947 through 1965, a trend line reflecting a growth rate of 10%/yr has been fitted. This growth rate again shows up in the 1970-1979 time period. Considering the 30-yr span of 19491979, a 6% growth rate is more representative. Extending the time frame through 1985 reduces the overall growth trend to 3%. Even a return to the 3% line would obviously be beneficial in the near future. Figure 3 is the unit sales chart again with the GNP overlaid. The GNP is shown in both Then Year curves and corrected for inflation by dividing by the consumer price index (CPI). Neither GNP curve matches the general aviation (GA) unit curve very well as the Then Year curve shows an 8% growth with no dips. The corrected curve shows a 4% growth rate with only minor dips. It is probably incorrect to compare GNP in dollars to aircraft unit sales, so Fig. 4 shows total sales in dollars for general aviation. Again, the Then Year curve and inflation-corrected $ curve are plotted. Figure 5 shows the same plot with trend lines, and the Then Year plot from

Introduction T paper is an update of AlAA Papers 85-4029 presented in October 1985, at the AIAA/AHS/ASEE Aircraft Design Systems and Operations Meeting held in Colorado Springs, Colorado, and 86-2607 presented at the AIAA Aviation Technology Conference Meeting held in September 1986, in Anaheim, California. These papers started with the generally accepted assumption that the general aviation industry's economic health followed the economy, at least since World War II. During the early 1980's, the economy turned down, and general aviation sales also turned down. However, now the economy has recovered and general aviation sales have not. The 1985 paper examined this in a limited way and assessed the cost effectiveness of the general aviation aircraft. A significant drop in general aviation cost effectiveness was identified and some causes examined. Since the economy has been in a state of recovery for at least three years [as shown by both an increase in gross national product (GNP) and the leveling of inflation], if the general aviation industry truly followed the economy, at least some level of sales recovery would have happened by now. Since sales continue to slide, it appears that some factor(s) has taken over. To see if this is the case, several factors have been investigated. Figure 1 is a plot of total unit sales since 1946. Figure 2 is the same plot with some trend lines added. From about 1947 through 1965, a trend line reflecting a growth rate of 10%/yr has been fitted. This growth rate again shows up in the 1970-1979 time period. Considering the 30-yr span of 19491979, a 6% growth rate is more representative. Extending the time frame through 1985 reduces the overall growth trend to 3%. Even a return to the 3% line would obviously be beneficial in the near future. Figure 3 is the unit sales chart again with the GNP overlaid. The GNP is shown in both Then Year curves and corrected for inflation by dividing by the consumer price index (CPI). Neither GNP curve matches the general aviation (GA) unit curve very well as the Then Year curve shows an 8% growth with no dips. The corrected curve shows a 4% growth rate with only minor dips. It is probably incorrect to compare GNP in dollars to aircraft unit sales, so Fig. 4 shows total sales in dollars for general aviation. Again, the Then Year curve and inflation-corrected $ curve are plotted. Figure 5 shows the same plot with trend lines, and the Then Year plot from

Introduction T paper is an update of AlAA Papers 85-4029 presented in October 1985, at the AIAA/AHS/ASEE Aircraft Design Systems and Operations Meeting held in Colorado Springs, Colorado, and 86-2607 presented at the AIAA Aviation Technology Conference Meeting held in September 1986, in Anaheim, California. These papers started with the generally accepted assumption that the general aviation industry's economic health followed the economy, at least since World War II. During the early 1980's, the economy turned down, and general aviation sales also turned down. However, now the economy has recovered and general aviation sales have not. The 1985 paper examined this in a limited way and assessed the cost effectiveness of the general aviation aircraft. A significant drop in general aviation cost effectiveness was identified and some causes examined. Since the economy has been in a state of recovery for at least three years [as shown by both an increase in gross national product (GNP) and the leveling of inflation], if the general aviation industry truly followed the economy, at least some level of sales recovery would have happened by now. Since sales continue to slide, it appears that some factor(s) has taken over. To see if this is the case, several factors have been investigated. Figure 1 is a plot of total unit sales since 1946. Figure 2 is the same plot with some trend lines added. From about 1947 through 1965, a trend line reflecting a growth rate of 10%/yr has been fitted. This growth rate again shows up in the 1970-1979 time period. Considering the 30-yr span of 19491979, a 6% growth rate is more representative. Extending the time frame through 1985 reduces the overall growth trend to 3%. Even a return to the 3% line would obviously be beneficial in the near future. Figure 3 is the unit sales chart again with the GNP overlaid. The GNP is shown in both Then Year curves and corrected for inflation by dividing by the consumer price index (CPI). Neither GNP curve matches the general aviation (GA) unit curve very well as the Then Year curve shows an 8% growth with no dips. The corrected curve shows a 4% growth rate with only minor dips. It is probably incorrect to compare GNP in dollars to aircraft unit sales, so Fig. 4 shows total sales in dollars for general aviation. Again, the Then Year curve and inflation-corrected $ curve are plotted. Figure 5 shows the same plot with trend lines, and the Then Year plot from

5 - MEASURING ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

How much do road accidents cost the national economy?

‘Dog Days’ Full Employment without Depreciation: Can It Be Done?

Background:Therapeutic advances of the recent past have led to significant changes in clinical practice when treating patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Since the advent of biological disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs...

With the availability of techniques to value changes in the quality of the environment, proposals have recently been made to incorporate environmental values into a green or greened national income (Ahmad et al., 1989 and El Serafy, 1991) These ideas stem from the broader problem of what exactly should be the content of an indicator of welfare in society. At this moment it is Gross National Product (GNP) and Net National Product (NNP) which forms the basis of welfare in society, as computed from the world wide accepted system of national accounts. However, due to the unprecedented deterioration of the environment in the last three decades, the accompanying monetary costs of damages and the non-monetary costs of extinction of species, changes in land use and landscape, GNP may not reflect welfare exactly. As Solow (1992) states, if one of the components between GNP and NNP is made by depreciation of man-made capital, why not correcting for depreciation of natural capital? A second example is that in the current system (household) restoration costs due to pollution lead to a contribution to National Product, whereas it merely is a recovering of a previous welfare loss. A simple correction in the direction of a greened national income would thus be to deduct these costs from GNP or NNP.

The Inappropriate Use of Imaging Studies: A Report of the 2004 Intersociety Conference

The relationship was examined between government smoking control levels and eight health, social and economic indicators in 93 countries. Governmental smoking control levels were quantified by assigning a point to each control measure. The controls were as follows: health warning on cigarette package; tar, nicotine or carbon monoxide level indications on cigarette package; ban on advertising on TV or radio; and prohibiting sales to minors. The eight indicators were annual rate of population increase, infant mortality rate, population per hospital bed, number of TV sets per 1000 people, protein supply per capita per day, military expenditure as % of GNP, gross national product (GNP) and % of primary school enrollment. We analyzed predictors of the smoking control level using multiple linear regression analysis with these eight indicators. This regression model indicates that the higher the GNP is, the stronger the smoking control level is, and GNP alone accounts for 42% of the variance in smoking control levels. The set of eight indicators explained 49% of it. GNP had the largest partial regression coefficient in the standardized model. Therefore, a low GNP might be an important factor behind the difficulty in strengthening government controls on smoking.

Discussions of macroeconomic theory usually begin with a few comments about national income accounting. The family of aggregate measures, of which gross national product (G.N.P.) is the most notable, is introduced and we are told how national income can be measured in three different ways. This much is uncontentious and even a little boring. What does cause concern, however, is the suggestion, either implied or stated explicitly, that G.N.P. is an indicator of ‘national welfare’. G.N.P. is a measure of the market value of goods and services produced by the economy in a particular time period, normally one year. Non-marketed goods and services of positive value, such as housework and gardening, are ignored. Expenditures on defence, police and other items which may be necessary for the provision of welfare but do not provide welfare themselves are included. No notice is taken of the distribution of G.N.P. since one pound’s worth of product is assessed equally regardless of who receives it. Finally, and most relevant for our purposes, the pollution caused by the production of G.N.P. is not registered despite its obvious relevance to ‘national welfare’. Indeed, if an increase in pollution leads to higher laundry bills and more expenditure on repairing perished materials, then G.N.P. will be seen to rise as a result of the increase in pollution.

David Hume, the brilliant and skeptical Scottish philosopher, was known for criticizing the human tendency to extrapolate—to assume that things would continue to motor along at the same speed on the same trajectory. He encouraged us to not make assumptions or predictions based merely on the “constant conjunction” (correlation) of past events, but to carefully examine apparent relationships for a causal link. Much of what happens in our world is linear and predictable, like clockwork in some cases. In other cases, nonlinear and startling trajectories best describe the behavior of economies, political movements, or the various factors in what we might call “global health.” Global health progress has been dramatic in some areas, but discouraging and slow in others. What trends should we anticipate in the coming decades? Is there reason for optimism? Simon Kuznets was a Nobel laureate economist who charted social inequality against national per capita income in a classic article in 1955. He used data from a variety of countries to plot a parabolic “inverted U” curve, predicting that inequality might increase as farmers moved to cities and industry, but would later shrink as prosperity reached broadly into a society. Kuznets understood the fragility of his data and some of its limitations, but others have extrapolated from his outcome to dubious conclusions. Will the trajectory of global health programs follow a Kuznets’ curve? Climate change or another major disruption could affect improvements in global health indices, and even turn back some successes. The growth of global health might follow the nonlinear shape of Kuznets’ curve, but I doubt it. The growth curve for global health might also take a “J” shape. Author and political scientist Ian Bremmer writes a compelling narrative for this trajectory in his 2006 book, The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall. He describes a nonlinear relationship of stability to progress in social freedoms, in which stability decreases initially as social freedoms increase; when freedom continues to increase, the brief dip in stability is followed by a long upward linear improvement. We see this behavior in the prevalence of polio immunity, i.e., when violence or deceitful propaganda are allowed to intrude on immunization campaigns. But I do not believe the “J” curve will be the most common trajectory for global health programs in the coming decades. Many physical processes, like chemistry “saturation” curves, the growth curve of populations, and improvements in longevity over time, follow a sigmoid (S shaped) curve. Input in the early stages may not show much response or return on investment, until reaching the cusp of an exponential rise, when return vastly outruns input. Later, the output stabilizes and reaches a plateau, where “saturation” or “carrying capacity” is achieved, and additional input produces diminishing returns. Even the exponential improvement in computing capability predicted by Gordon Moore in 1965 may finally be approaching a plateau, and showing a sigmoid shape. I believe that future growth in most global health indices will describe a sigmoid curve. Samuel Preston first demonstrated this behavior in his description of the relationship of longevity to gross national product (GNP) per capita. At relatively low GNP per capita values ($2,000), average national longevity rises dramatically with each small increase in economic activity. Many of the developing world nations are poised at the base of the steep upsloping part of Preston’s curve. At about $5,000 GNP per capita, the spectacular longevity gains flatten out, and only inch up as GNP increases to about $20,000 per capita. (There are few data points beyond this, including the United States, and longevity remains stable or may even decrease slightly as GNP continues to rise. Other developed countries, struggling to reach the same economic level, may not want to go there!) Preston’s curve does not demonstrate the sigmoid shape at low GNP value. A truly sigmoid function should have a flat “tail” at low values, before beginning the exponential rise. I suspect most human societies have been on that part of the curve throughout history, only in recent centuries reaching the upslope as a group. Some of the poorest nations may still be mired in this phase today, when investments in Department of Preventive Medicine and Biometrics, Uniformed Services University, 4301 Jones Bridge Road, Bethesda, MD 20814. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. doi: 10.7205/MILMED-D-16-00020