Environmental "nasty surprise" as a window on precautionary thinking

Abstract

All environmental problems are nasty surprises. Each runs counter to Western society's expectation of endless progress through mastery of nature. But the term seems especially appropriate for problems that: catch most scientists, technologists, regulatory officials, the mass media, and the general public off-guard; are already quite extensive by the time they are recognized; stem from deeply entrenched technological processes or practices; present a potentially large-scale, long-term threat to human or ecological health. Such problems are surprises because they seem to drop out of the blue - even if it is soon clear that warning signs were long missed, ignored, or misinterpreted - and reveal major errors in scientific thinking and public policy. They are nasty because they represent potentially enormous hazards and addressing them entails substantial technological, economic, and political challenges. This combination of characteristics makes these problems a useful window into the ongoing controversy over the precautionary principle and its place in the environmental policy landscape.