Environmental Effect of Free Trade between China and ASEAN and Impact Analysis of Key Socio-Economic Factors

Abstract

In order to identify and quantify the environmental effects of international trade and promote the construction of the Green Belt and Road,we calculated the environmental costs of the trade between China and ASEAN based on the input-output model of environmental economics,trade and pollutant emission intensity data from China-ASEAN yearbook,China statistical yearbook,World Bank and ASEAN yearbook.Moreover,we also identified the impact of socio-economic trade factors on environmental costs through redundancy analysis(RDA).The results showed that:(1)In 2010,the trade between China and ASEAN resulted in a pollution deficit in the discharge of industrial waste gas,fumes,sulfur dioxide,and solid waste,which decreased by 3600×10^8 m 3,3.8×10^4 t,19.7×10^4 t,9.8×10^4 t,respectively.However,there was a surplus in the discharge of industrial wastewater and dust,which was 5400×10^4 and 1.1×10^4 t,respectively.(2)The environmental effect of trade in heavily polluting industries was positive for China and the manufactured goods were the largest contributors.However,most severe environmental costs appeared in the trade in moderately polluting industries,and moderately environmental costs were observed in trade related to lightly polluting industries.(3)China′s trade with the low-income countries in ASEAN had negative effects on environment protection in China;on the contrary,trade with the middle-and high-income countries was beneficial to China′s environment.(3)The main factor affecting the environmental cost of China′s import trade was the urbanization rate and the share of industrial output value in GDP,and China′s export trade was export volume.It was suggested that China imported industrial products with large environmental costs from the developed countries in ASEAN,while exported a large number of primary industrial products to underdeveloped countries.This research shows that China should strengthen technological innovation and improve pollution emission standards,reduce the intensity of pollution emissions in heavily polluting industries,and optimize export structure to avoid becoming a‘pollution haven’.