Entomology and the World Food Situation

In this discussion of the nature of the world food and population problem attention is directed to the following: progress and prospects since the World Food Conference adopted a Universal Declaration on the Eradication of Hunger and Malnutrition in 1974; major elements of the food and population problem; the population side of the equation; how developing countries can increase food production; problems of malnutrition and the effective distribution of food; the need for increased investment in food; priority for increased food production; critical importance of international grain market stability; more effective means for meeting local food emergencies; the growing importance of food aid; and food security policies and country action programs. The 1974 World Food Conference adopted the following resolutions for safeguarding populations affected by drought and disaster from the fearful consequences of inadequate food supplies: increase food production in countries where it is most needed; broaden the effective distribution of food through measures for improving trade consumption and nutrition; and build a better system of world food security which can avoid the disruptively wide swings in food prices such as occurred so dramatically in 1972-74. The World Food Conference called on developing countries to place a higher priority on rural development and the role of the small farmers in meeting the food needs of poorer people. It called on developed countries to increase their assistance to low income countries. The progress of the last 4 years has been mixed. Good harvest for 3 successive years have contributed to the rebuilding of food stocks and a presently improved world food situation. In developing countries there has been increased investment in food production and governments have begun to focus more attention on the longterm food needs of their people. Yet the efforts thus far are still less than adequate to meet the needs. Mechanisms within the UN for emergency food relief have been strengthened. It is most unfortunate that much of the progress in the world food situation to date is the result of good weather. The world food problem has international dimensions which affect almost all countries but in the 1st instance it is a problem which primarily concerns most directly some 36-40 countries. Countries which have substantially lowered birthrates appear to be those effectively meeting the basic human needs of the broad mass of their populations for food health care (including family planning services) employment and improved roles for women. The most promising option open to low income developing countries faced with increasing food deficits is to produce much more of ther own food. It is in the basic interest of the U.S. and of other advanced industrial countries to support increased investment and a marked increase in food production in developing countries.

MY TASK TODAY is to set the stage for a discussion of U. S. policies and policy alternatives for food, agriculture, and trade. I shall attempt to describe the past and present and to establish a perspective from which to view the likely future world food situation. My analysis will attempt to separate the short-lived events that so often draw the greatest public attention from the persistent underlying trends that will shape world agriculture of the future. This is no easy job. What is an aberration to one man is the beginning of a new trend to another. I shall conclude by listing some of what I believe to be the most important questions and issues suggested by the analysis. In reacting to production shortfalls throughout the world in 1972, we tended to lose sight of the fact that there has been much stability in the trends for food production over the past two decades. World food production per capita trended upward during the 1954-72 period, with an annual increase of about 3/4 of 1 percent (Table 1). The drop in 1972 was the largest during this entire period. Total food production increased at about the same rate in both the developed and developing world, but the very rapid pace of population growth in the less developed regions cut the per capita increase in production to less than Y2 of 1 percent annually while the developed regions enjoyed an annual per capita increase of about 12 percent. We cannot, of course, conclude from these indices that there has been an equivalent lifting in nutrition levels everywhere or a reduction in the number of hungry people or improvement in other measures of human welfare. Still, our data indicate the world's growing potential for improving diets around the globe. Cereals comprise the most important food staple group among the high carbohydrate foods upon which most of the world's population relies for a major share of its diet. Cereals are also the major protein source, although a somewhat less important source in areas where animal products are relatively plentiful. In less developed areas, dependence on cereals for protein is especially important. But they are more than foodstuffs. According to FAO food balances for 1964-66, 48 percent of cereals produced outside Communist Asia were used for food, 38 percent for animal feed, and 14 percent for seed, starch, liquor, and other uses. We can expect the total direct food use of cereals to rise in the future as poulation grows, but use of cereal food will decline in importance to other foods as incomes rise. When we look at the total production of grain over the last two decades, we see a great difference in the performance of the developed and less developed regions. In the developed countries grain production increased more than 60 percent while planted area was nearly unchanged at something under 300 million hectares-all the increase was from higher yields. Grain production of less developed countries increased even more, almost 75 percent, but it required a '3 increase in area since yields were increasing only about Y2 as fast as in the developed regions. While the area planted to grains in both the developed and developing countries is now about equal, average grain yields in the developing countries are now only about 60 percent of those in the developed countries. Another way to look at it is that average yields in the less developed countries now equal those recorded for the developed countries in the early 1950's. Have recent events signaled a fundamental deterioration in the world food situation? Unusually poor weather in 1972 contributed to severe DON PAARLBERG is Director of Agricultural Economics, U. S. Department of Agriculture.

Triangle of Environment, Water and Energy: A Sociological Appraisal

The topic of food supply includes subjects such as the world food situation, food crises, food security and global diversion of production. The topic gives rise to many questions. An important question is whether access to food will be a limiting factor for the world's development and population growth. At the global level, to date, food production has been able to keep pace with population growth. The improved food situation in recent decades has largely been achieved by increasing productivity. As a result, the level of food security—calculated as the prevalence of malnourishment in the world—has improved. Food crises have played a major role in food supply and in the global security of supply, and it seems likely that food crises will occur more frequently in the future.

We commend the generosity of Bill Gates for his plan to reduce human diseases, especially in developing countries (“Bill Gates plans a hit list, with NIH's help,” M. Enserink, 31 Jan., p. [641][1]). Tuberculosis, malaria, AIDS, and other diseases are increasing worldwide ([1][2]). One of the factors contributing to these increases is a rise in malnutrition, which is making people more susceptible to a wide array of diseases. According to the World Health Organization, more than 3 billion people worldwide are malnourished (including calorie, protein, vitamins, iron, and iodine deficiencies) ([2][3]). People are dying from any one or combinations of nutrient deficiencies, but of equal concern is their increased susceptibility to infections. Unfortunately, to successfully tackle the problem of human diseases, we cannot deal only with one aspect of the problem. World population is increasing rapidly and is projected to double to 12 billion in about 50 years ([3][4]). Food production per capita, based on cereal grains, which are estimated to provide about 80% of the world's food, has been declining for nearly two decades ([4][5]). More than 99% of the world's food comes from agriculture. Growing water shortages are plaguing agricultural production. Agriculture consumes more than 70% of the world's fresh water ([5][6]). In some areas, water is so polluted that it is unsafe for agricultural production and human use. Reports indicate that 90% of human infections with diseases in developing countries are attributed to polluted water ([6][7]). Thus, we encourage a holistic approach to reducing the disease burden in developing countries. Such an effort would include reducing population growth, increasing the food nutrient supply, providing clean sources of fresh water, and researching prevention and treatment of the various diseases plaguing humans. Placing emphasis only on measures to decrease death rates, without at the same time dealing with the factors that affect birth rates, would greatly exacerbate the world's population problem ([7][8]). In addition, improving economic development, increasing education and political stability, and increasing support of research are needed to help reduce the human burden of diseases and malnutrition. 1. [↵][9]1. D. Pimentel 1. Y. Kim , in Biological Invasions: Economic and Environmental Costs of Alien Plant, Animal, and Microbe Species, D. Pimentel, Ed. (CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, 2002), pp. 331-354. 2. [↵][10]1. WHO , Micronutrient Malnourishment: Half the World's Population Affected (No. 78 (World Health Organization, Geneva, 1996), pp. 1-4. 3. [↵][11] (2002)Population Reference Bureau, Washington, DC. 4. [↵][12]Vital Signs: The Trends that are Shaping Our Future (Norton, New York, 2001). 5. [↵][13]Vital Water Graphics, Water Use and Management (United Nations Education Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris, 2002)(see [www.unep.org/VitalWater/15.htm][14]). 6. [↵][15]Effects of the Current and Future Population on Food Supply (Alternative Energy Institute, )(see [www.altenergy.org/2/population/effects/effects.html][16]). 7. [↵][17]See [www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htm][18]. [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.299.5607.641b [2]: #ref-1 [3]: #ref-2 [4]: #ref-3 [5]: #ref-4 [6]: #ref-5 [7]: #ref-6 [8]: #ref-7 [9]: #xref-ref-1-1 View reference 1 in text [10]: #xref-ref-2-1 View reference 2 in text [11]: #xref-ref-3-1 View reference 3 in text [12]: #xref-ref-4-1 View reference 4 in text [13]: #xref-ref-5-1 View reference 5 in text [14]: http://www.unep.org/VitalWater/15.htm [15]: #xref-ref-6-1 View reference 6 in text [16]: http://www.altenergy.org/2/population/effects/effects.html [17]: #xref-ref-7-1 View reference 7 in text [18]: http://www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htm

HISTORICALLY, EACH MAJOR INHABITED region of the earth has produced its own food supply, and generally, agricultural production has kept pace with population growth. As populations have grown, however, crop failure from drought, flood, or whatever cause, in a given region necessarily affects increasing numbers of people. Estimates are that somewhat less than 2 million humans starved to death in the 17th century, 10 million in the 18th century, 25 million in the 19th century, and perhaps 12 million thus far in the 20th century. Were it not for improved communications, early warnings, the remarkable productivity of North American agriculture, and a worldwide food distribution capability, agriculture in the 20th century might well fail to keep pace with the world population growth of 2 percent per year, and major regional crop failures could now claim more lives than at any time in the past. We have entered a period of great international anxiety about the world's ability to feed its growing population. In 1972, the world food situation was transformed from one of food surpluses and low prices to one of relative food scarcity and high prices. This rapid reversal has raised again a wave of widespread food, population pessimism similar to that which has swept over the world several times since Thomas Malthus wrote his influential essay in 1789. A wide spectrum of opinion exists about the causes of this rapid change in the world food situation and its likely development in the future. One view is that we have reached the limit of the world's ability to feed even our present numbers adequately. Another view is that the events of the early 1970s signal a fundamental shift in the structure of the world's food economy that has led to a period of more or less chronic scarcity and high food prices. The soaring demand for food, spurred on by both continuing population growth and rising affluence, has begun to outrun the productive capacity of the world's farmers and fishermen. If this is the case, the limits to expansion of our food supply will require efforts to reduce consumption by the world's rich to feed the world's poor. A third opinion is that although the situation will be precarious for the next year or two, the factors that combined to cause it can be overcome. In this view, to which I subscribe, food production during the next decade will keep a half a step ahead of population growth, but there will be times and places of critical shortage. This last view is corroborated by a recent United Nations study, a study by the economic research service of the United States Department of Agriculture and a committee of the National Academy of Sciences and National Science Foundation, which I chaired. This committee considered the primary issue in balancing the food-population equation is an early reduction in the population growth rate and the attainment of population equilibrium as soon as possible. The factors that influence the population-food balance may be grouped into those relating to population, to agricultural resources, and to the more general features of the world food system. The main purpose of this article is to describe briefly some of these factors and what I believe can be done about correcting a potentially explosive situation.

The sixth session of the Council met in Paris from June 13 to 24, 1949. The Council heard a report by the Director-General (Dodd) on his visits to Europe and the Far East, and examined the world food situation and the problems which appeared to lie ahead. Available information indicated that although more than two-thirds of the world's population was still chronically undernourished, there had been several important changes in the world food situation in the past few months, particularly the emergence of surpluses in certain countries. Food consumption in 1948–49 in western and central Europe was ten per cent higher than in 1947–48, in terms of calories; this was due to the excellent 1948 harvest and the continuation of imports at a high level. In the Far East and parts of Africa and Latin America output remained at a low level, apart from improvement in a few crops and areas — such as rice in Thailand and oilseeds in West Africa. In the underdeveloped regions lack of capital and equipment, inadequate technical assistance and continued internal disturbances constituted major obstacles to expansion of production. World grain exports in 1948 were the highest since 1930–31, although increased consumption in exporting countries kept world exports of fats and oils still 33 per cent below prewar levels. Less than ten per cent of the world's food production was exchanged between countries, representing only three-quarters of the volume exchanged before the war. Standards of nutrition in the ill-fed areas of the world could be raised only by increasing production in those areas or by transferring to them supplies from countries producing more than they themselves needed and which were capable of still further increased output.

Reducing agricultural loss and food waste: how will nature fare?

THE WORLD FOOD SITUATION: DEVELOPMENTS DURING THE 1970s AND PROSPECTS FOR THE 1980s

THE Union of Myanmar experienced its first highly pathogenic avian influenza (hpai) outbreaks from March to April 2006. These occurred in the Mandalay and Sagain divisions, in the central part...

Journal Article The World's Population Problems and a White Australia Get access 29*. The World's Population Problems and a White Australia. By H. L. Wilkinson. 1930. (London: P. S. King. 8vo. xvii + 339 pp. 18s.) Journal of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Volume 9, Issue 4, July 1930, Page 547, https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/9.4.547b Published: 01 July 1930

To see China as a factor in the world food situation it is necessary to examine worldwide trends first. Ever since Malthus's dismal prediction, alarmists have periodically foretold approaching disaster, only to be followed by alternating waves of optimism accompanied by surges in food production. Globally, the historical trends have been reassuring about man's ability to keep food output growth ahead of population growth. The race has been won despite the fact that since the end of the eighteenth century the world has witnessed an unprecedented population explosion, with mankind multiplying himself by about four and a half times. The burgeoning numbers have been attributable mainly to exogenous improvement in medicine and health measures rather than to the workings of the forces responsible for the so-called in economic development. The future appears more reassuring in this regard as the developing nations appear finally to have entered the transition phase and begun to show noticeable declines in fertility (Wortman and Cummings, p. 29). Falling fertility rates are expected to continue among the developing nations, with total world population reaching perhaps 6 billion by the year 2000 instead of the much higher earlier forecasts, possibly stabilizing itself as early as 2020. This hardly suggests, however, that the increase in the number of mouths to be fed will not be substantial in the period ahead. World population will have risen by more than 70 million in 1981 alone, and by the year 2000 the annual increase may be half again as large as at present. What are the prospects for food production, in particular grain output? The historical record and thoughtful assessment of the key factors at work probably warrant cautious optimism. World grain output has kept ahead of multiplying numbers. Per capita consumption has risen strongly in the high income countries and at least marginally in the less developed world. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) world'crop production statistics puts total world grain output (wheat, coarse grains, milled rice) at an annual average of 851 million tons in the early 1960s. By 1980/81, roughly two decades later, it has reached 1.44 billion tons, a rise of nearly 70%, or an average rate of nearly 3% a year. The average leaves a margin of 1% a year as per capita improvement. These averages mask the fact that in the 1970s aggregate performance showed some weakening. The commodity crunch of 197274, coming on top of unusually strong global economic growth, decimated the U.S. food stockpiles and its set-aside acreages. The margins have been built up, however. According to USDA estimates, the world entered the 1980s with about the same stocks-to-consumption ratio in grains as a decade ago, about 16%, or a 60-day supply. Concern centers on the uncertain Soviet grain output and the distribution of cost and responsibility of the world's reserves. U.S. government agencies (USDA and CIA) tend to project an extension of past margins with output overshadowing population in growth, while stressing the technical possibilities for the predicted outcome. Despite lack of consensus, it is probably prudent to share Barnett's considered judgment for the balance of the century that the outlook does not justify apocalyptic predictions of disaster (p. 279). There are several points on which there is general awareness and some agreement. (a) Though technically plausible, the worth of the relatively sanguine forecasts hinges on responsible and effective government policies in economic and demographic domains. It is well to note, however, some new technological directions of possibly great future import. The new plant and animal genetics opens up a Anthony M. Tang is professor of economics at Vanderbilt University. The author expresses his appreciation for research support from the Chung Hua Institution for Economic Research, Taipei, Taiwan where he visited during the summer of 1981.

The population bomb

Mankind is undergoing an extraordinary ex pansion of numbers, unparalleled in history, which began in the eighteenth century and which has gathered increasing momentum since the beginning of the present century. The increase of the earth's human population during the last two hundred years has been three times greater than the cumulated growth during all the previous millennia of man's existence on the planet, and it appears likely that a still greater increase may be in store for the future, before a position of numerical stability is reached. The speeding up of population growth has been brought about by a great improvement in the conditions of mortality, which has enhanced the biological power of multiplication of the species. This has been partly offset in the economically more developed countries by restraint of reproduction, but reproduction rates remain undiminished in most of the less developed countries. The latter countries contain the major share of world population and are receiving an even larger share of the current increase resulting from the excess of births over deaths throughout the world. The crux of the world population problem is in the association of persistent poverty and technological retardation with unremitting rapid growth of numbers in the less developed countries.

Chapter 41 Food security and the world food situation