Energy use and emissions scenarios for transport to gauge progress toward national commitments

Abstract

To achieve the mitigation targets discussed under the Paris Agreement, countries must develop studies that not only estimate baselines based on historical data of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy use, but that also project them considering different levels of ambition and political commitment. This study aims to develop and model scenarios of energy use and GHG emissions from the transport sector until 2030, considering the Brazilian Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Three scenarios were developed based on different political commitment. The method is based on a bottom-up approach, requiring multi-sectoral collaborative efforts to not only explain the direct energy use, but also balance the transportation activity and energy between the transport modes, justifying each case in terms of development stage and energy supply capacity. Here, transport sector has been further split up into the highest sector level detail available. At the maximum, GHG emissions could be reduced by 15% (29 Mt CO2e), achieved in scenario 3, whilst there are increases on emissions in scenario 2 (5% or 10 Mt CO2e) and scenario 1 (21% or 42 Mt CO2e). It implies that Brazil has the potential to ratchet up the mitigation targets discussed under the Paris Agreement of the UNFCCC.