Energy poverty and premature deindustrialization: evidence from middle-income countries

This paper investigates the question of aid’s effects on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) by disaggregating aid into grants and loans during 1994–2015. The estimation results indicate that grants have a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth, while loans have a negative but insignificant effect on it. When we break down the panel data into Low Income Countries (LICs) and Middle Income Countries (MICs) in order to gain further insight, grants have been effective in spurring growth in both LICs and MICs, while loans have had positive and significant impact on economic growth in neither LICs nor MICs. Accordingly, the main findings of this study provide a consistent evidence in support of the grants-effectiveness on growth in both MICs and LICs, contrary to the ineffectiveness of loans. The other supplementary results show that the domestic investment (GCF) and education (SEC) which are basically public policy variables have significantly positive impacts on economic growth in MICs, while they are not statistically significant in LICs.

The long run trade orientation of an economy is measured in this article by an index which measures the extent to which the real exchange rate is distorted away from its free trade level by the trade regime. The technique for estimating a cross country index of real exchange rate distortion uses the international comparison of prices prepared by Robert Summers and Alan Heston. Resource endowment constitutes the norm and real overvaluation or undervaluation relative to this norm reveals whether incentives are directed to the domestic or international market. The index is constructed based on data for GDP/capita average price level in US dollars 1976-85 and GDP growth rate/capita 1976-85. Other sections are devoted the comparison of the procedure for 117 countries between 1976-85 and an examination of the empirical relationship between outward orientation and economic growth and sensitivity analysis. The results indicate that Latin America generally was overvalued by 33% relative to Asia and Africa was overvalued by 86%. The real exchange rate distortion index supports the view that Asian countries are more outward oriented. Asian economies have lower price levels which reflect relatively modest protection and incentives oriented to external markets. Latin American countries with moderately high price level and African countries with very high price levels reflect strong protection and incentives directed to production for the domestic market. An alternative specification which eliminates the dummy variables for Africa yields similar results with slightly lower magnitude; i.e. overvaluation is 60% instead of 86% for Africa and Latin America is overvalued by 39% instead of 33% over Asia. A table is provided which indicates by country the distortion and variability of the real exchange rate the GDP growth the 1976 GDP/capita and the investment rate. Another finding was that there is a significant negative relationship between distortion of the real exchange rate and growth of GDP/capita after controlling for the effects of real exchange rate variability and investment level with both the original specification and the alternative. The growth rate/capita of Latin American and African countries would increase 1.5-2.1% with a shift to move outward oriented trade policies. This gain as well as devaluation of the real exchange reate trade liberalization and maintenance of a stable real exchange rate would contribute to positive growth rates. In the analysis of the poorest 24 countries the result was that only rate distortion and not variability and investment rate explained the growth rate. The gain for Ghana for example of adopting the trade policies and exchange rate of Bangladesh would be 5% to its growth.

This study examines the relationship between foreign direct investment and total factor productivity on economic growth in 90 middle-income countries. Because middle-income countries often face particular challenges in achieving sustainable economic development. Investigating how FDI and TFP contribute to or hinder economic growth in these countries can provide insight and help policymakers make policy decisions. We employ the dynamic system Generalized Method of Moments to analyze an unbalanced sample with 2714 annual observations from 1990 to 2020. The empirical results show that a percentage increase in foreign direct investment will increase economic growth in middle-income countries by 9.3%. In addition, Total Factor Productivity also has a positive relationship with economic growth due to improved labor quality and production innovations. Furthermore, the results indicate that Total Factor Productivity empowers the positive nexus between Foreign Direct Investment and economic growth. In addition, the main findings are also robust even though we employ alternative economic growth proxies. These findings support economic growth and industrialization theories but do not support labor market dynamics theories. Finally, this study contributes practical suggestions for sustainable economic development in middle-income countries.

This study investigates the effects of rent seeking activities on economic growth in 53 middle-income countries. Our data spans the period 2011 to 2020. We use the generalized method of moments estimator to examine the effects of rent-seeking activities on economic growth. Our study also includes several control variables, namely democratic accountability, public debt, human capital, foreign direct investment, capital stock, population, research and development expenditure and trade openness. The empirical results suggest that rent-seeking activities impede economic growth in middle-income countries.

Quantitative Aspects of the Economic Growth of Nations: VIII. Distribution of Income by Size

Energy accessibility via natural resources: Do natural resources ensure energy accessibility in low income countries?

PROTOCOL: The effects of road infrastructure, and transport and logistics services interventions on women's participation in informal and formal labour markets in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

South Africa has been experiencing premature deindustrialization and poor growth over an extended period of time. Premature deindustrialization is among the key factors locking many middle-income countries in a trap of stagnant growth and thwarting their catching-up with advanced economies. Premature deindustrialization shrinks middle-income countries’ opportunities for technological development, and also their capacity to add value in global value chains (GVCs), which reduces their scope for the sustained increases in productivity required for catching up. This chapter analyses key structural factors contributing to a ‘middle-income technology trap’. Throughout the chapter, reference is made to the divergent experiences of three middle-income comparator countries to South Africa: Brazil, China, and Malaysia. Building on this framework, the chapter presents new econometric evidence of premature deindustrialization in South Africa through an international comparative lens. By studying the relationship between countries’ GDP per capita and their shares of manufacturing in total employment, the chapter identifies the level of GDP per capita and share of manufacturing in total employment associated with the ‘turning point’ at which the share of manufacturing levels off and begins to decline. The chapter groups countries into four categories based on their (de)industrialization dynamics, and identifies possible premature deindustrializers, among which South Africa is found. South Africa’s lack of structural transformation helps to explain its failure to escape the middle-income technology trap.

This study examines the nexus between foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness (TRO) and economic growth for selected 11 high-income and 22 middle- and low-income Asian countries within a model using a more recent panel dataset over the period 2000–2021. The cointegration test has been applied in this study, which shows that whether there is a long-term interrelationship between FDI and economic growth, which we focus on in particular, and then the covariance matrix estimators that are developed by Driscoll and Kraay are used. Our findings indicate that there is a positive relationship between FDI and TRO, and economic growth for high-income countries, whereas the relationship between FDI and economic growth is negative for middle- and low-income countries. This study provides insights on why governments and policy makers in developing countries should focus on prioritizing domestic investment and production strategies for sustainable economic growth rather than simply emphasizing the attractiveness of FDI and the indispensability of import-oriented trade liberalization.

Why energy access is not enough for choosing clean cooking fuels? Evidence from the multinomial logit model

Foreign direct investment (FDI) as a driver of growth is important in today’s globalized economy. It is extremely difficult for economies to grow sustainably without economic interactions outside their borders. However, there has been a debate on the impact of FDI inflow on economic expansion. Hence, this study investigated the influence of FDI on economic growth for a selection of 200 economies around the world for the period 1990–2018. We subdivided the sample into World Bank income group clusters to aid comparison across income blocs. The study employed panel estimation techniques including pooled ordinary least squares (POLS), dynamic panel estimation with fixed-effects and random-effects and generalized method of moments (GMM). The study found that FDI, debt stock and official development assistance are promoters of growth in the selected countries—although debt stock weakly impacts economic growth. In contrast, trade openness and exchange rates had a mixed (negative and positive) influence on economic growth. The study suggests that the creation of a conducive business environment and economic policies will attract FDI inflows. Additionally, borrowing from external sources could be minimized despite its perceived positive influence on growth to achieve financial independence.

Achieving economic development is one of the most important economic goals of every country. Identifying the determinants of economic growth, is a useful tool for adopting appropriate economic policies. This study, therefore, empirically examines the impact of trade openness, foreign direct investment, and financial development on economic growth, across 62 countries over the period 1995–2016. These countries are divided into two groups: low-income and high-income countries. We employ the pooled mean group (PMG), mean group (MG), and dynamic fixed effect (DFE) estimation techniques on the cross-country panel data. The findings show a positive long run association between trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI), financial development, labor, government expenditure, and economic growth in low-income countries, with a positive and negative short run effect from capital and government expenditures, respectively. For high-income countries, a positive long run association between trade openness, FDI, capital, and economic growth exist. The short run estimates indicate a positive effect on trade openness and capital as well as a negative effect on government expenditure. Our study shows that the adoption of policies that improves access to skilled labor and international trade, affect the attainment of a sustainable economic development.

The purpose of this research is to highlight the way that governance indicators impact foreign direct investment (FDI) as a proportion of a nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). Using data gathered from the World Bank, the authors in this research performed multiple regression for 13 Southeastern European nations using the pooled ordinary least squares (POLS) approach in order to assess the impact. According to the paper’s main findings, net FDI is significantly positively impacted by government effectiveness (GE), and the political stability and absence of violence/terrorism (PSAV), while on the other hand, net FDI is significantly negatively impacted by the rule of law (RL). The other governance indicators regulatory quality (RQ), control of corruption (CC) and voice and accountability (VA), did not significantly affect FDI attraction for the Southeastern countries. The importance of this research is mostly focused on the role of FDIs in the economic growth and development of a country (Bajçinca et al., 2024), rationally reflecting the national levels of governance. Also, this paper will contribute to enriching the existing literature related to the research topic.

This paper aims to systematically explore the impact of renewable energy consumption, trade openness, industrialization, and urbanization on economic growth and carbon emissions while considering the different development levels of 122 countries over the period 1998–2018. Pesaran CD test, CIPS unit root test, Pedroni cointegration test, fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) estimation, Dumitreschu–Hurlin causality test and DOLS robustness test are adopted. The results show that trade openness has different effects on economic growth and carbon emissions across different income groups. Specifically, the impact of trade openness on economic growth in high- and low-income countries is positive, while trade openness has a negative impact on economic growth in middle-income countries. Meanwhile, the impact of trade openness on carbon emissions supports the pollution haven hypothesis. Urbanization promotes economic growth in all income countries, and increases carbon emissions in countries of all income groups except high-income countries. Renewable energy consumption promotes economic growth and curbs carbon emissions, while industrialization increases economic growth and carbon emissions. Further findings show a one-way causality from trade openness to renewable energy consumption. Finally, some targeted recommendations are provided for countries with different development stages.

The current study investigates the relationship among trade openness, poverty and income inequality in the developing economies classified as lower and middle income countries. Kao and Fisher cointegration tests are employed to see the long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Panel cointegration regression is employed to calculate the magnitude of variables through FMOLS and DOLS techniques. The results demonstrate that interaction of these three variables differ for income groups of countries, however, trade openness and poverty increase income inequality in both groups. Similarly, income inequality decreases trade openness in both lower income and middle income groups of the economies. Trade openness increases poverty in lower income countries only. Poverty increases income inequality in lower income countries but in middle income countries it decreases trade openness. In the control variables the financial development has shown encouraging effect on trade openness in lower and middle income countries. GDP growth has shown positive impact on income inequality in lower income countries but negative impact in middle income countries. As trade openness has discoursing effect so the economies should carefully deal with the implications through proper policy framework.