Energy policy until 2040 and the future of hard coal in Poland

Abstract

The article presents the provisions of the Polish Energy Policy until 2040. The feasibility of achieving the eight basic long-term goals presented in the document was analysed, i.e. optimization of own energy resources, expansion of energy production and infrastructure expansion, diversification of gas and oil supply as well as the development of network infrastructure, development of energy markets, implementation of nuclear energy, development of renewable energy sources, development of heating and cogeneration, improvement of the country’s economy energy efficiency. Mathematical models were used to verify the feasibility of these predictions. Forecasts were created whose accuracy was confirmed by the means of an ex post error analysis. The rest of the models were also analysed. Ultimately, the article presents only those forecasts that were subject to the slightest error. Particular attention was paid to renewable energy sources. Obtaining energy using fossil fuels is still more profitable and efficient. However, RES solutions are introduced due to the need to protect the environment and also because fossil fuel reserves will run out in a few decades. If the appropriate measures are not taken today, the demand for primary energy in the world will exceed energy supply in the future. The gradual introduction of renewable energy generation capacity will prevent a drastic jump in prices during the transition period and will allow the extension of the fossil fuels usage time. Renewable energy sources are, therefore, a safeguard for access to energy in the future. It was found that over the next dozen years, Polish energy will continue to produce energy mainly based on coal. It is, therefore, necessary to use technologies that will allow efficient and clean coal burning. Therefore, the solution, in this case, may be the so-called Clean Coal Technologies.