Chapter 31 - Energy Options and Predictions for China

Energy-related activities are a major contributor of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A growing body of knowledge clearly depicts the links between human activities and climate change. Over the last century the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil and other human activities has released carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and other heat-trapping GHG emissions into the atmosphere and thus increased the concentration of atmospheric CO2 emissions. The main human activities that emit CO2 emissions are (1) the combustion of fossil fuels to generate electricity, accounting for about 37% of total U.S. CO2 emissions and 31% of total U.S. GHG emissions in 2013, (2) the combustion of fossil fuels such as gasoline and diesel to transport people and goods, accounting for about 31% of total U.S. CO2 emissions and 26% of total U.S. GHG emissions in 2013, and (3) industrial processes such as the production and consumption of minerals and chemicals, accounting for about 15% of total U.S. CO2 emissions and 12% of total ...

Major US electric utility climate pledges have the potential to collectively reduce power sector emissions by one-third

Climate change is harmful to ecosystems and public health, so the concern about climate change has been aroused worldwide. Studies indicated that greenhouse gas emission with CO2 as the main component is an important factor for climate change. Countries worldwide are on the same page that low-carbon development is an effective way to combat climate change. Enhancing public concern about low-carbon development and climate change has a positive effect on universal participation in carbon emission reduction. Therefore, it is significant to study the trend of public concern about low carbon and its relationship with CO2 emissions. Currently, no related studies are available, so this research explores the relationship between the public concern about low carbon and CO2 emissions of China, as well as the respective trends of each. Based on the daily data of Baidu-related keyword searches and CO2 emission, this research proposes the GMM-CEEMD-SGIA-LSTM hybrid model. The GMM is utilized to construct a comprehensive Baidu index (CBI) to reflect public concern about low carbon by clustering keywords search data. CEEMD and SGIA are applied to reconstruct sequences for analyzing the relationship between CBI and CO2 emissions. Then LSTM is utilized to forecast CBI. The reconstructed sequences show that there is a strong correlation between CBI and CO2 emissions. It is also found that CBI affects CO2 emissions, with varying effect lag times for different periods. Compared to LSTM, RF, SVR, and RNN models, the proposed model is reliable for forecasting public concern with a 46.78% decrease in MAPE. The prediction results indicate that public concern about low carbon shows a fluctuating upward trend from January 2023 to January 2025. This research could improve understanding of the relationship between public concern about low carbon and CO2 emissions to better address climate change.

Brazilian cattle production is mostly carried out in pastures, and the need to mitigate the livestock's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and its environmental footprint has become an important requirement. The adoption of well-suited breeds and the intensification of pasture-based livestock production systems are alternatives to optimize the sector's land use. However, further research on tropical systems is necessary. The objective of this research was to evaluate the effect of Holstein (HO) and Jersey–Holstein (JE x HO) crossbred cows in different levels of pasture intensification (continuous grazing system with low stocking rate–CLS; irrigated rotational grazing system with high stocking rate–RHS), and the interaction between these two factors on GHG mitigation. Twenty-four HO and 24 JE x HO crossbred dairy cows were used to evaluate the effect of two grazing systems on milk production and composition, soil GHG emissions, methane (CH4) emission, and soil carbon accumulation (0–100 cm). These variables were used to calculate carbon balance (CB), GHG emission intensity, the number of trees required to mitigate GHG emission, and the land-saving effect. The number of trees necessary to mitigate GHG emission was calculated, considering the C balance within the farm gate. The mitigation of GHG emissions comes from the annual growth rate and accumulation of C in eucalyptus trees' trunks. The CB of all systems and genotypes presented a deficit in carbon (C); there was no difference for genotypes, but RHS was more deficient than CLS (-4.99 to CLS and −28.72 to RHS ton CO2e..ha−1.year−1). The deficit of C on GHG emission intensity was similar between genotypes and higher for RHS (−0.480 to RHS and −0.299 to CLS kg CO2e..kg FCPCmilk−1). Lower GHG removals (0.14 to CLS higher than 0.02 to RHS kg CO2e..kg FCPCmilk−1) had the greatest influence on the GHG emission intensity of milk production. The deficit number of trees to abatement emissions was higher to HO (−46.06 to HO and −38.37 trees/cow to JE x HO) and to RHS (−51.9 to RHS and −33.05 trees/cow to CLS). However, when the results are expressed per ton of FCPCmilk, there was a difference only between pasture management, requiring −6.34 tree. ton FCPCmilk−1 for the RHS and −3.99 tree. ton FCPCmilk−1 for the CLS system. The intensification of pastures resulted in higher milk production and land-saving effect of 2.7 ha. Due to the reservation of the pasture-based dairy systems in increasing soil C sequestration to offset the GHG emissions, especially enteric CH4, planting trees can be used as a mitigation strategy. Also, the land-save effect of intensification can contribute to the issue, since the area spared through the intensification in pasture management becomes available for reforestation with commercial trees.

Impact of irrigation and fertilization regimes on greenhouse gas emissions from soil of mulching cultivated maize (Zea mays L.) field in the upper reaches of Yellow River, China

Developing and emerging economies face a twofold energy challenge in the 21st century: meeting the needs of billions of people who still lack access to basic, modern energy services while simultaneously participating in a global transition to clean, low-carbon energy systems. Historic rates of progress toward increased efficiency, decarbonization, greater fuel diversity and lower pollutant emissions need to be greatly accelerated in order to do so. The perceived adverse effects of climate change, felt by many and due to the anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gases (GHG), and in particular Carbon Dioxide (CO2), are generating immense attention worldwide. Though this is a potential global issue, it is appreciated that small- island states like Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) may face greater risks than most, resulting from the associated rising sea level and land reclamation. The 2017 hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean is empirical evidence of this, with two category 5 storms that brought near to total devastation in Dominica, Barbuda and Saint Martin (all SIDS and neighbours of T&T). These events are evidence that the cash flows associated with GHG mitigation should not be limited in sight to mitigating investments alone, but should also consider the cost incurred when these investments are not made. In addition to be a SIDS with possible increase vulnerability to climate change, T&T registers high levels of CO2 emissions on a per capita and per GDP basis due to its relatively small population size and low carbon efficiency. Though the nation’s absolute CO2 emissions are relatively insignificant, from a sustainability viewpoint, emission management is needed to address the increasing volumes of anthropogenic emissions within. For T&T’s energy climate, the issue of depleting energy resource and that of disproportionate GHG emissions with respect to the country’s population and GDP create an opportunity for the proper utilisation of this waste product. Globally, policies are being designed to increase energy efficiency and renewable production as a means to manage emissions. During the Kyoto Protocol’s period and now with the Paris agreement, the ultimate goal was to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a level needed to mitigate future climate change by providing a framework for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from industrialized nations. These reduction targets can have negative economic impacts that will affect not only the industrialized countries but also other developing countries around the world. In this paper, the authors tackle these issues for T&T through a nationally appropriate mitigation action that can potentially contribute to economic growth via EOR and CCS projects. Though related work has been previously executed for T&T, the major novelty addressed in this paper will be the current price barriers to make this technology appealing to T&T. These include maximum CO2 price (either as a tax or trade commodity) and related minimum oil price of carbon dioxide. It is expected that this work will help policy makers in generating sustainable energy policies that are more likely to succeed if they also contribute toward other societal and economic development objectives. This is important as it only seems logical for a nation with over 100 years’ experience in oil and gas to persist with an energy system that continue to operate in the midst of climate change via related CCUS policies. CCUS can be the transition pillar as the nation gradually move towards renewable energy as it was found that: It was most economical to use CO2 sources from the ammonia plants; It was more economical to transport the CO2 via trucking (especially at low flow rates and in the earlier years of the project life); As the CO2 flow rates increased, the pipelines started to be more economical, in particular, once 2 MT/year was exceeded, the pipeline was the more economical option and especially so for later years in the project; It is possible to sequester approximately 7.3-17.2 MTCO2 over a ten (10) year period based on CO2 utilization rates reported of 4-14.5 Mscf/bbl; Suitable CCUS sinks are located no more than 55km from the CO2 sources in mature oil fields south Trinidad; The minimum oil price for economic viability was 55 USD/bbl; and The maximum CO2 purchase price for economic viability was 35 USD/t.

Do soil conservation practices exceed their relevance as a countermeasure to greenhouse gases emissions and increase crop productivity in agriculture?

Better information on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation potential in the agricultural sector is necessary to manage these emissions and identify responses that are consistent with the food security and economic development priorities of countries. Critical activity data (what crops or livestock are managed in what way) are poor or lacking for many agricultural systems, especially in developing countries. In addition, the currently available methods for quantifying emissions and mitigation are often too expensive or complex or not sufficiently user friendly for widespread use.The purpose of this focus issue is to capture the state of the art in quantifying greenhouse gases from agricultural systems, with the goal of better understanding our current capabilities and near-term potential for improvement, with particular attention to quantification issues relevant to smallholders in developing countries. This work is timely in light of international discussions and negotiations around how agriculture should be included in efforts to reduce and adapt to climate change impacts, and considering that significant climate financing to developing countries in post-2012 agreements may be linked to their increased ability to identify and report GHG emissions (Murphy et al 2010, CCAFS 2011, FAO 2011).

Policies to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will not only slow climate change, but can also have ancillary benefits of improved air quality. Here we examine the co-benefits of both global and regional GHG mitigation on U.S. air quality in 2050 at fine resolution, using dynamical downscaling methods, building on a previous global co-benefits study (West et al., 2013). The co-benefits for U.S. air quality are quantified via two mechanisms: through reductions in co-emitted air pollutants from the same sources, and by slowing climate change and its influence on air quality, following West et al. (2013). Additionally, we separate the total co-benefits into contributions from domestic GHG mitigation versus mitigation in foreign countries. We use the WRF model to dynamically downscale future global climate to the regional scale, the SMOKE program to directly process global anthropogenic emissions into the regional domain, and we provide dynamical boundary conditions from global simulations to the regional CMAQ model. The total co-benefits of global GHG mitigation from the RCP4.5 scenario compared with its reference are estimated to be higher in the eastern U.S. (ranging from 0.6-1.0 μg m-3) than the west (0-0.4 μg m-3) for PM2.5, with an average of 0.47 μg m-3 over U.S.; for O3, the total co-benefits are more uniform at 2-5 ppb with U.S. average of 3.55 ppb. Comparing the two mechanisms of co-benefits, we find that reductions of co-emitted air pollutants have a much greater influence on both PM2.5 (96% of the total co-benefits) and O3 (89% of the total) than the second co-benefits mechanism via slowing climate change, consistent with West et al. (2013). GHG mitigation from foreign countries contributes more to the U.S. O3 reduction (76% of the total) than that from domestic GHG mitigation only (24%), highlighting the importance of global methane reductions and the intercontinental transport of air pollutants. For PM2.5, the benefits of domestic GHG control are greater (74% of total). Since foreign contributions to co-benefits can be substantial, with foreign O3 benefits much larger than those from domestic reductions, previous studies that focus on local or regional co-benefits may greatly underestimate the total co-benefits of global GHG reductions. We conclude that the U.S. can gain significantly greater domestic air quality co-benefits by engaging with other nations to control GHGs.

Mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adaptation to climate risk are two essential ingredients of climate change policy. Both are needed and co-benefits may exist. Yet, mitigation and adaptation are not usually pursued together. Part of remedying this shortcoming is understanding the relationship between GHG emissions and climate vulnerability reduction and recognizing when and where they trend together. Here, we compare changes in fossil fuel CO2 emissions per capita and in climate vulnerability scores over the past two decades in 179 countries. We use climate vulnerability scores from the well-established ND-GAIN Country Index, a composite metric constructed from thirty-six indicators covering three components of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity). We find that 69% of the countries decreased climate vulnerability, while increasing their per capita fossil fuel CO2 emissions. These countries are successfully reducing climate vulnerability but are increasing their GHG emissions and thus failing in mitigation efforts. In contrast, 23% of the countries have been successful in simultaneously reducing per capita CO2 emissions and climate vulnerability. Furthermore, in highly vulnerable countries, increasing CO2 emissions are not correlated with decreasing climate vulnerability. These findings underscore that climate vulnerability reduction may be due only partly to economic development. This finding also changes our prevailing view that increases in CO2 emissions are associated with vulnerability reduction. Finally, examining mitigation and climate-vulnerability reduction by sector, we show that a majority of countries are able to reduce vulnerability in ecosystem services. Those countries and sectors with positive trends provide examples for others to follow, as solutions at the mitigation-climate vulnerability reduction interface are essential for sustainable economic development.

This review proposes that mineral-based greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation could be developed into a substantial climate change abatement tool. This proposal was evaluated via three objectives: (1) synthesise literature studies documenting the effectiveness of geological minerals at mitigating GHG emissions; (2) quantify, via meta-analysis, GHG magnitudes that could be abated by minerals factoring-in the carbon footprint of the approach; and (3) estimate the global availability of relevant minerals. Several minerals have been effectively harnessed across multiple sectors—including agriculture, waste management and coal mining—to mitigate carbon dioxide/CO2 (e.g., olivine), methane/CH4 (e.g., allophane, gypsum) and nitrous oxide/N2O (e.g., vermiculite) emissions. High surface area minerals offer substantial promise to protect soil carbon, albeit their potential impact here is difficult to quantify. Although mineral-based N2O reduction strategies can achieve gross emission reduction, their application generates a net carbon emission due to prohibitively large mineral quantities needed. By contrast, mineral-based technologies could abate ~9% and 11% of global CO2 and CH4 anthropogenic emissions, respectively. These estimates conservatively only consider options which offer additional benefits to climate change mitigation (e.g., nutrient supply to agricultural landscapes, and safety controls in landfill operations). This multi-benefit aspect is important due to the reluctance to invest in stand-alone GHG mitigation technologies. Minerals that exhibit high GHG mitigation potential are globally abundant. However, their application towards a dedicated global GHG mitigation initiative would entail significant escalation of their current production rates. A detailed cost-benefit analysis and environmental and social footprint assessment is needed to ascertain the strategy’s scale-up potential.

Low-carbon production of iron and steel: Technology options, economic assessment, and policy

Environmental implications of stored cattle slurry treatment with sulphuric acid and biochar: A life cycle assessment approach

Advanced wastewater treatment processes and novel technologies are adopted to improve nutrient removal from wastewater so as to meet stringent discharge standards. Municipal wastewater treatment plants are one of the major contributors to the increase in the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and therefore it is necessary to carry out intensive studies on quantification, assessment and characterization of GHG emissions in wastewater treatment plants, on the life cycle assessment from GHG emission prospective, and on the GHG mitigation strategies. Greenhouse Gas Emission and Mitigation in Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants summarises the recent development in studies of greenhouse gases’ (CH4 and N2O) generation and emission in municipal wastewater treatment plants. It introduces the concepts of direct emission and indirect emission, and the mechanisms of GHG generations in wastewater treatment plants’ processing units. The book explicitly describes the techniques used to quantify direct GHG emissions in wastewater treatment plants and the protocol used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to estimate GHG emission due to wastewater treatment in the national GHG inventory. Finally, the book explains the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology on GHG emissions in consideration of the energy and chemical usage in municipal wastewater treatment plants. In addition, the strategies to mitigate GHG emissions are discussed. The book provides an overview for researchers, students, water professionals and policy makers on GHG emission and mitigation in municipal wastewater treatment plants and industrial wastewater treatment processes. It is a valuable resource for undergraduate and postgraduate students in the water, climate, and energy areas; for researchers in the relevant areas; and for professional reference by water professionals, government policy makers, and research institutes. ISBN: 9781780406305 (Print) ISBN: 9781780406312 (eBook) ISBN: 9781780409054 (ePUB)

This study uncovered the direct and indirect energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 213 Chinese national-level industrial parks, providing 11% of China's gross domestic product, from a life-cycle perspective. Direct emissions are sourced from fuel combustion, and indirect emissions are embodied in energy production. The results indicated that in 2015, the direct and indirect GHG emissions of the parks were 1042 and 181 million tonne CO2 equiv, respectively, totally accounting for 11% of national GHG emissions. The total energy consumption of the parks accounted for 10% of national energy consumption. Coal constituted 74% of total energy consumption in these parks. Baseline and low-carbon scenarios are established for 2030, and five GHG mitigation measures targeting energy consumption are modeled. The GHG mitigation potential for these parks in 2030 is quantified as 111 million tonne, equivalent to 9.1% of the parks' total emission in 2015. The measures that increase the share of natural gas consumption, reduce the GHG emission factor of electricity grid, and improve the average efficiency of industrial coal-fired boilers, will totally contribute 94% and 98% in direct and indirect GHG emissions reductions, respectively. These findings will provide a solid foundation for the low carbon development of Chinese industrial parks.