Energy Model for Long-Term Scenarios in Power Sector under Energy Transition Laws

Abstract

High electricity demand, as well as emissions generated from this activity impact directly to global warming. Mexico is paying attention to this world difficulty and it is convinced that sustainable economic growth is possible. For this reason, it has made actions to face this problem like as launching constitutional reforms in the power sector. This paper presents an energy model to optimize the grid of power plants in the Mexican electricity sector (MES). The energy model considers indicators and parameters from Mexican Energy Reforms. Electricity demand is defined as a function of two population models and three electricity consumption per capita. Prospectives are presented as a function of total annual cost of electricity generation, an optimal number of power plants—fossil and clean—as well as CO2eq emissions. By mean of the energy model, optimized grid scenarios are identified to meet the governmental goals (energy and environment) to 2050. In addition, this model could be used as a base to identify optimal scenarios which contribute to sustainable economic growth, as well as evaluate the social and environmental impacts of employed technologies.