Energy Model for Long-Term Scenarios in Power Sector under Energy Transition Laws

Background: The provision of energy services is a vital component of the energy system. This is often considered emission-intensive and at same time, highly vulnerable to climate change conditions. This forms the fundamental objective of this thesis, poised to examine technoeconomic and environmental implications of policy intervention, targeted at cushioning impacts of climate change on the energy system. Aims: Four research queries are central to this work: (1) Review literature on impacts of CVC (2) Estimate influence of seasonal climatic and socioeconomic factors on energy demand in Australia; (3) Model dynamic interactions between energy policies and climate variability and change (CVC and (4) Identify least-cost combination of electricity generation technologies and effective emissions reduction policies under climate change conditions in Australia. Methods: A systematic scoping review method was first applied to identify consistent pattern of CV&C impacts on the energy system, while spotting research gaps in studies that met the inclusion criteria. Databases consisting of Scopus and Web of Science were searched, and snowballing references in published studies was adopted. Data was collated and summarised to identify the characteristic features of the studies, consistent pattern of CV&C impacts, and locate research gaps to be filled by this study. The second study applied an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to estimate temperature sensitive electricity demand in Australia. Estimates were used with projected temperatures from global climate models (GCMs) to simulate future electricity demand under climate change scenarios. The study further accounted for uncertainties in electricity demand forecasting under climate change conditions, in relation to energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy adoption and electricity price volatility. The estimates from the ARDL model and projections from GCMs were used for energy system simulation using the Long-range Energy Alternative and Planning (LEAP) system. It considered climate induced energy demand in the residential and commercial sector, alongside linking the non-climate sensitive sector with energy supply sector. This model was vital to justifying policy options under investigation. Further, LEAP modelling analysis was extended by identifying effective emission reduction policies considering CV&C impacts. Here, the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) was used for optimisation analysis to identify least-cost combination of electricity generation technologies and GHG emission reduction policies. Whereas, in the third and final study, cost-benefit analysis and estimation of long run marginal cost of electricity were conducted, while decomposition analysis of GHGs were analysed in the third study alone. Data used in the ARDL model included socioeconomic data which includes gross state product, as well as population and electricity prices from 1990-2016. The LEAP and OSeMOSYS model as used, was dated to 2014 as the base year, while several technological (power plant characteristics, household technologies), economic (energy prices, economic growth, carbon price) and environmental (emission factors, emission reduction target) variables were used to develop Australia's energy model. Results: The literature search generated 5,062 articles in which 176 studies met the inclusion criteria for the final literature review. Australian studies were scarce compared to other developed countries. Also, just few articles made attempt to examine decarbonisation under climate change. The ARDL model estimates and GCMs simulation of future electricity demand under CV&C show that Australia had an upward sloping climate-response functions, resulting to an increase in electricity demand. However, the researcher identified an annual increase in projected electricity demand for states and territory in Australia, which calls for the need to scale up RET. The LEAP model results showed substantial impacts on energy demand, as well as impacts on power sector efficiency. Under the BAU scenario, CV&C will result in an increase in energy demand by 72 PJ and 150 PJ in the residential and commercial sectors, respectively. Induced temperature enlarges the non-climate BAU demand, which will increase threefold before 2050. Under the non-climate BAU, there is an expansion of installed capacity to 81.8 GW generating 524.6 TWh. Due to CV&C impacts, power output declines by 59 TWh and 157 TWh in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios. This leads to an increase in generation costs by 10% from the base year, but a decrease in sales revenue by 8% and 21% in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The LEAP-OSeMOSYS model suggests renewables and battery storage systems as least-cost option. However, the configuration varied across Australia. Carbon tax policy was observed to be effective in reducing Australia's emission and foster huge economic benefits when compared to the current emission reduction target policy in the country. Also, renewable energy technologies increase electricity sales and decrease fuel cost better than fossil fuel dominated scenarios. Conclusions: Data from this study reveals that seasonal electricity demand in Australia will be influenced by warmer temperatures. Also, the study identified the possibility of winter peaking which is somewhat higher than summer peak demand in some states located in the southern regions of Australia. However, winter peaking is projected to decline by mid-century across the RCPs, while summer peak load is projected to increase, thereby, causing power companies to expand their generation capacity which may become underutilised. Owing to increase in cooling requirements up to 2050, policy uncertainties analysis recommend renewables to match an increasing future electricity demand. The energy model indicates that ignoring the influence of CV&C may result in severe economic implications which range from increased demand, higher fuel cost, loss in revenue from decreased power output, as well as increased environmental externalities. The study concludes that policy options to reduce energy demand and GHG emissions under climate change may be expensive on the short-run, though, may likely secure long-run benefits in cost savings and emission reductions. It is envisaged that this could provide power sector management with initiatives that could be used to overcome cost ineffectiveness of short-term cost. The modelling results makes a case for renewable energy in Australia as lower demand for energy and increased electricity generation from renewable energy source presents a win-win case for Australia.

This study analyzes the relationship between disaggregate energy consumption i.e. oil, coal, gas, and electricity consumption in different sectors with economic growth. The study uses annual time series data of Pakistan from 1972 to 2016 and applies ARDL bound test for cointegration, while Granger causality test is used for short run causality. Results showed that oil consumption in industrial and transport sector, gas consumption in fertilizer and power sector, and electricity consumption in industrial sector have positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long run. However, oil consumption in agricultural and power sector, coal consumption in power and brick kilns sector, gas consumption in cement sector, and electricity consumption in agricultural sector have negative and significant impact on economic growth. However, no causality exists between oil consumption and economic growth, while unidirectional causality exists from economic growth to coal consumption in brick kilns sector, gas consumption in industrial sector, and electricity consumption in agricultural sector in the short run. For sustainable energy supply, reduce the consumption of oil and coal to indigenously available resources, however, for sustainable economic growth, encourage industrial sector to use electricity, while fertilizer and power sector to use gas.

Analysis of energy consumption structure on CO[formula omitted] emission and economic sustainable growth

This study investigated the impact of the people category of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) on sustainable and conventional economic growth in Asia and the Pacific region, using a sample of 52 selected countries between 2000 and 2023. Employing two distinct models, model A1 for conventional economic growth and model A2 for sustainable economic growth, we explained the relationships between five SDG indicators: employed poverty rate, stunted children, expenditure on health, expenditure of education, and % of women MNAs on economic growth. This study employed a fixed-effect model and random-effect model to investigate the impact of the people category SDGs on traditional and sustainable economic growth. The comparative analysis of each SDG in both models revealed valuable insights. SDG 1, “employed poverty rate”, has a positive impact on economic growth in both models, while SDG 2, “percentage of stunted child”, did not significantly influence economic growth in either model. Moreover, SDG 3 and SDG 4, relating to “government’s health expenditure per capita” and “government’s Education education expenditure per capita”, respectively, exhibited a positive impact on traditional and sustainable economic growth. Conversely, SDG 5, “percentage of women members of national parliament”, displayed an insignificant impact on traditional and sustainable economic growth models. In conclusion, this study suggests that policymakers should prioritize targeted interventions to alleviate employed poverty, enhance healthcare, and boost education spending. Moreover, promoting women’s representation in national parliaments should be approached with context-specific strategies to maximize its impact on economic growth.

This study investigates the relationship between sustainable economic growth and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Saudi Arabia from 1980 to 2023. The ARDL approach and VECM technique are employed to analyze the short-run and long-run dynamics. The short-run results show mixed effects. Sustainable economic growth has a positive impact on current and one-period lagged FDI but a negative impact on the two periods lagged. Trade openness and infrastructure negatively affect FDI in the short run. Interestingly, oil rents and real economic growth also have negative short-run impacts on FDI, but these effects become positive with a longer lag. Long-run analysis reveals a negative relationship between trade openness, infrastructure, and oil rents with FDI, suggesting a potential crowding-out effect. Trade openness has a positive long-run impact on most variables, including sustainable growth, FDI, real growth, and CO2 emissions. Oil rents also have a positive long-run impact on these variables. This study finds six bidirectional causal relationships in the short run, primarily between trade openness, infrastructure, oil rents, and FDI. Unidirectional causality runs from oil rents, trade openness, exchange rate, sustainable growth, and real growth to FDI and infrastructure. Additionally, CO2 emissions cause FDI, and trade openness causes sustainable growth. While sustainable economic growth benefits FDI in the long run, short-term policies regarding trade openness and infrastructure require reevaluation. Oil revenue and real economic growth may initially deter FDI, but this reverses in the long term. To attract sustainable FDI, policymakers should focus on long-term economic growth strategies and consider reforms in trade and infrastructure policies. A comprehensive FDI strategy that moves beyond oil dependence and leverages trade openness is crucial to long-term economic diversification.

Urban energy modeling and calibration of a coastal Mediterranean city: The case of Beirut

Digital finance is an innovative financial model of great significance for sustainable economic growth. By constructing indicators of sustainable economic growth, we explore the impact of digital finance on sustainable economic growth using the fixed effect model, mediating effect model, threshold regression model, and dynamic spatial Dubin model. The study finds that digital finance can drive sustainable economic growth, and the robustness and endogenous treatment results strongly verify this. Digital finance promotes sustainable growth mainly through technological innovation. In addition, with technological innovation and the development of renewable energy, there is a significant nonlinear relationship between digital finance and sustainable economic growth. Finally, the spatial spillover effect results show that digital finance's impact on sustainable economic growth has a positive effect, whether it is a direct effect or an indirect effect. This article provides possible ideas for digital finance to promote sustainable economic growth.

PurposeThe market-based monetary policy framework has been favoured by Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) economies. Hence, this study aims to investigate the effect of monetary policy channels on the sectoral value added and sustainable economic growth in ECOWAS. Data from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund over 2013–2019 were sourced for thirteen member countries. ECOWAS is found to have very high inflation level, interest and exchange rates.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopted the Driscoll–Kraay fixed-effects ordinary least squares regression (OLS) estimator.FindingsThe findings revealed that while the effect of monetary policy channels on the agricultural sector value added is largely heterogenous and significantly in-elastic, the one on the industrial and services sectors are overwhelmingly homogeneous and negative, but insignificant for the services sector. Moreover, the effect of monetary policy channels on sustainable economic growth is also homogeneously asymmetric, with imminent stagflation, while the interactive effects of monetary policy channels are heterogeneous on sustainable economic growth and economic sectors. Therefore, an inflation targeting monetary policy stance is generally recommended with prioritised exchange rate stabilisation amid sufficient fiscal space.Originality/valueThis is amongst the first studies to investigate monetary policy channels, sectoral outputs and sustainable growth in the ECOWAS region with a rigorous analysis and found implications for policy.

The Indonesian government policy in encouraging sustainable economic growth to reduce unemployment, poverty and inequality is threatened to fail, because economic growth does not reach targets and is not of quality. The purpose of this research is to explain the four pillars of growth and development namely; human capital, social capital, institutional economics and entrepreneurship as the main drivers of quality and sustainable economic growth. This research method used primary data on entrepreneurship and SMEs in the provinces of Central Java and Yogyakarta. The correlational form of recursive model path analysis was used as analytical method. The research results show the very strong role of human capital as the main key in driving economic growth both directly and indirectly. The existence of human capital and social capital will further encourage new economic institutions, furthermore new economic institutions will encourage the competitiveness of productive entrepreneurship and high, quality, and sustainable regional economic growth. The policy implication is that high, quality, and fundamentally sustainable economic growth must be built on the four main pillars basis namely; human capital, social capital, institutional and entrepreneurship in order to be more successful in reducing development problems; unemployment, poverty and income inequality.

Energy models should be simplified to handle data limitations and should predict reliable energy use. Currently, it remains challenging to ensure an appropriate level of detail for simplifying building energy models and to avoid performance gaps when predicting electricity consumption. In this respect, this research proposes to identify an appropriate level of simplifying a building energy model, predict electricity demands and performance gaps using the simplified energy model, and expand the model usability through the operational stage. Building electricity demands predicted through EnergyPlus (version 8.7.0) simulation are compared with actual electricity data collected through Internet of Things (IoT) sensors. Consideration of performance gaps increases the predictability of electricity consumption of a simplified energy model. Also, the Bayesian multilevel additive model updates the performance gaps along with the collection of new IoT data. The findings of this study contribute to forecasting electricity demands with a simplified energy model by predicting performance gaps that can be applied to predicting the electricity needs of similar buildings in the design stage and controlling operational electricity use in the operational stage by comparing sensor measurement with reference data provided by the energy model.

Full energy sector transition towards 100% renewable energy supply: Integrating power, heat, transport and industry sectors including desalination

China’s hunger for natural resources is growing as the Chinese authorities try to fuel an economy in need of sustainable economic growth while it adjusts to its “new normal” growth trajectory. There is a need to reactivate an economic model that is not meeting growth level targets and remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels. The country’s energy model needs to change amidst the challenges and significant costs posed by environmental degradation. Over the last decade, the Middle East’s connections have become of paramount importance to China, but these links are quite fragile as they are fundamentally affected by significant uncertainty. The Chinese authorities face paramount challenges as they engage with a very conflicting region characterised by increasing political frictions, armed conflicts, and escalating instability. These difficulties suggest the need for a highly cautious strategy as the Chinese authorities keep progressing with the redefinition of their energy model centered on stability and security as having a paramount importance to a country that needs to fuel its economic model. However, coal dependency, environmental concerns and lower economic growth levels have pushed the country to reconsider its energy model towards more sustainable approaches. As the government seeks energy sustainability, the research findings suggest that the country’s new energy model is shifting towards oil; this raises concerns regarding China’s national security interests and sustainable economic growth goals.KeywordsChina’s energy modelThe Middle EastOil price warEnvironmental sustainabilityCOVID-19

Life cycle assessment shows that retrofitting coal-fired power plants with fuel cells will substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Sustainable economic growth is one of the main pillars of sustainable development, together with the environment and society. Therefore, unveiling the factors behind sustainable economic growth is vital for the design of economic, educational, and social policies. This study investigates the role of renewable energy use, gender inequality, human capital, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on sustainable economic growth in the BRICS countries during the period of 2000–2021 by using novel cointegration and causality tests. The findings of the causality test point out a feedback interplay among renewable energy use, gender inequality, and indicators of sustainable economic growth and a unidirectional causality from human capital and FDI inflows to indicators of sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, the consequences of the cointegration test unveil that the use of renewable energy, human capital, and FDI inflows positively impact sustainable economic growth, while gender inequality negatively affects sustainable economic growth. In conclusion, our results highlight the significant roles of renewable energy, human capital, and FDI inflows, along with gender equality, in achieving sustainable economic growth.

Sustainable economic growth is a critical agenda for developing Muslim countries facing the challenges of globalization and climate change. Islamic investment instruments such as sukuk and Islamic mutual funds provide an alternative financing mechanism aligned with Sharia principles, promoting inclusive and sustainable development. This study aims to analyze the contribution of these Islamic investment instruments to sustainable economic growth in developing Muslim countries. Utilizing panel data from 20 member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) over the period 2020–2025, this study applies fixed-effect panel regression analysis. The dependent variable is a sustainable economic growth index incorporating economic, social, and environmental dimensions. Independent variables include sukuk issuance and Islamic mutual fund assets under management, with control variables covering Islamic financial literacy, inflation, and conventional interest rates. The findings reveal that both sukuk issuance and Islamic mutual funds significantly and positively impact sustainable economic growth, with sukuk having the most substantial effect. Moreover, Islamic financial literacy enhances the positive relationship between Islamic investment instruments and sustainable growth. The study underscores the necessity of strengthening regulations, transparency, and Islamic financial education to accelerate the development of Islamic capital markets that contribute to sustainable development. Policy implications include enhancing Islamic financial literacy programs, developing green investment products, and fostering multi-stakeholder collaboration to build an inclusive and sustainable Islamic investment ecosystem. These findings provide robust empirical evidence for policymakers and Islamic capital market participants to optimize the role of Islamic investment instruments as pillars of sustainable economic development in developing Muslim countries.