Energy and Security in the 1980s

Abstract

Because alternative sources of energy cannot be developed fast enough in the short term, the problems of energy security in the next decade will continue to focus on oil. The problem is not that the world will run out of oil in this century, but that low-cost oil is heavily concentrated in the Persian Gulf, an area of domestic and international political instability. The current oil glut and soft markets will not solve the energy security problem. Market forces are a necessary but not sufficient element in an effective strategy for energy security. The same can be said about an effective American military presence in the area. Current enthusiasm for enhancing military capabilities can provide only part of a solution when we are dealing with a transnational system such as international energy. Successful analysis must draw on insights both from traditional realism and from studies of power and interdependence. Theories of interdependence and transnational systems are not based upon a world of detente, but remain relevant to the complex threats to national security we face, such as energy in the 1980s.