Energy and Climate Changes Along the Last Two Hundred Years: Logistic Modeling

Abstract

AbstractClimate change and clean energy challenges are the joint subjects of this paper. We used the 1800–2020 anomalies time series in CO2 atmospheric concentration, in global mean surface temperature and on energy consumption to search for eventual periodic structures underlying multi-logistic model trend function for these parameters. Fourier analysis of model-to-data residues time series disclosed harmonic rhythms whose periods were entirely compatible economic cycles of the type of generational Kuznets infrastructure changes and Kondratiev radical technological innovation substitution. Historical data is used to demonstrate that along the last two centuries the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and global mean surface temperature anomalies are linearly correlated. For 2066, we forecast a global mean surface temperature anomaly of about 1.9 °C and 480.7 ppm for the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Elaborating on Kuznets plots for primary energy consumption, we forecast that by 2037 mankind is most likely to enter a new period, namely, the Green Energy Revolution, meaning that the challenge for clean energy may eventually be won.KeywordsEnergyClimateGlobal surface temperatureLogistic modelSustainabilityEnergetics evolution