Energias Renováveis e Segurança Hídrica:

The present paper evaluates the composite risk of anthropogenic and climate change on the future water status in Jordan during the period 2030–2050. The projected water status in the country is evaluated based on the more likely population growth and climate change scenarios. The most likely figure for the population of Jordan, excluding refugees from neighboring countries, in 2040 would be ∼15 million people. Given this likely projection, though conservative, annual water needs for the domestic sector alone are expected to be between 700 and 800 million m3, with the current level of water consumption. A rise in near surface air temperature by 2 °C and a drop in total precipitation by 15%, as projected by most Global Circulation Models, would diminish renewable water resources in the mountainous region by ∼ 25–40%, being more severe as aridity increases.1. IntroductionThere is almost a consensus among earth scientists that the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is lea...

Concentrating solar power for seawater desalination in the Middle East and North Africa

Solar energy, amongst all renewable energies, has attracted inexhaustible attention all over the world as a supplier of sustainable energy. The energy requirement of major seawater desalination processes such as multistage flash (MSF), multi-effect distillation (MED) and reverse osmosis (RO) are fulfilled by burning fossil fuels, which impact the environment significantly due to the emission of greenhouse gases. The integration of solar energy systems into seawater desalination processes is an attractive and alternative solution to fossil fuels. This study aims to (i) assess the progress of solar energy systems including concentrated solar power (CSP) and photovoltaic (PV) to power both thermal and membrane seawater desalination processes including MSF, MED, and RO and (ii) evaluate the economic considerations and associated challenges with recommendations for further improvements. Thus, several studies on a different combination of seawater desalination processes of solar energy systems are reviewed and analysed concerning specific energy consumption and freshwater production cost. It is observed that although solar energy systems have the potential of reducing carbon footprint significantly, the cost of water production still favours the use of fossil fuels. Further research and development on solar energy systems are required to make their use in desalination economically viable. Alternatively, the carbon tax on the use of fossil fuels may persuade desalination industries to adopt renewable energy such as solar.

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))

Poultry production and its effects on food security in the Middle Eastern and North African region

While some states in the Middle East and North Africa have pursued renewable energy policies, others have doubled-down on conventional fossil fuels and eschewed the development of renewable energy. What explains this variation? What implications do these choices have on domestic and international politics? Drawing on theories from political science and the political economy of development, we explore the transition from conventional to renewable energy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We consider the impact of decarbonized, diversified economies on demands for inclusive governance and democratic institutions. First, we argue that the renewable energy transition will diffuse existing and future societal pressures by increasing youth employment, hindering corruption, and reducing fiscal volatility. Compared to the concentrated political economy of petroleum-reliant states, we posit that the up and coming renewables sector provides an opportunity for states to broaden and diversify their sources of economic and international political power. Second, we build theoretical expectations that fiscal reliance on oil exports and government time horizons explain variation in renewable energy policies in the MENA. We conclude with potential scenarios for how the transition will affect fiscal and political stability.

The Mediterranean region is considered a major hotspot of climate change, whose adverse effects could be both substantial and numerous. Climate change across sub-Saharan Africa would have a disastrous impact on North Africa, with severe repercussions on Southern Europe, including a further increase in migration flows. Several steps have been taken by the European Union to promote dialogue and cooperation with the Southern and Eastern shores of the Mediterranean. A fundamental step was the Euro-Mediterranean Conference of Foreign Affairs Ministers, held in Barcelona on 27 and 28 November 1995, which defined the political, economic and social framework of the relations between the European Union and those of the Mediterranean area. Within the Barcelona process, an important role was given to energy, but not only to renewable production, but also to exploration, production and trade in fossil fuels. Europe is faced with the problem of high energy dependency and security of its energy supply. Euro-Mediterranean cooperation, especially the Barcelona process, was relaunched in 2008 with the creation of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM). Moreover, current upheavals across the Middle East and North Africa, pose the question of whether these structures and tools are suitable to tackle a global picture which has rapidly changed. Over the past 50 years there has been a major change in the distribution of energy consumption within the Mediterranean region: while in the early 1970s North Africa represented only 4% of the total consumption of the Mediterranean region, and the countries belonging to the European Union 81%, during 2016 the relative weight of North Africa rose to 19% while that of the European Union decreased to 59%. There has been an increase not only in overall consumption but also in per capita consumption in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East, although the gap compared to the countries of the European Union remains very wide. In Turkey, strong economic growth since the mid-1990s has had important repercussions on energy consumption and the environment, leading to a significant increase in the consumption of fossil fuels and CO2 emissions. Analysis of the past 50 years has shown that growth rates of CO2 emissions in North Africa are very high, especially in Algeria and Egypt. The same can be said for the Middle Eastern countries, especially Jordan and Lebanon, where both the increase in per capita consumption and the increase in the population are driving the growth of CO2 emissions. Considering absolute values, almost half of such emissions are produced by the countries belonging to the European Union, especially by France, Italy and Spain, which together produce about 42 percent of the total emissions of the Mediterranean area. This fact should not be overlooked: while the growth rates of CO2 emissions in the countries belonging to the European Union have decreased significantly over time, the fact remains that they are responsible for most of the emissions of the entire Mediterranean region. In the meantime, since CO2 emissions are growing in North Africa and the Middle East, the estimate of the Gini index confirms that the gaps are narrowing not only for per capita energy consumption, but also for CO2 emissions.

Composite indicators are popular tools for assessing and comparing multidimensional phenomena in different countries. This paper tests the methodology of the Groundwater Risk Index (GRI), a water vulnerability composite index developed to evaluate groundwater depletion in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region (Lezzaik et al. 2018). A sensitivity analysis using a one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) approach is used to determine the impact of alternate methodological choices on country-level GRI scores and ranks. The analysis focuses on the GRI sensitivity to: (1) the selection of constituent indicators; (2) the choice of normalization scheme; and (3) the choice of aggregation method. Results show that the GRI scores are not impacted by the selection of indicators and the choice of alternative normalization schemes. Conversely, the GRI was sensitive to arithmetic and multiplicative aggregation methods. High-income, oil-rich gulf countries exhibited decreases in rankings due to an imbalance between water resource allocations and adaptive capacity parameters, whereas countries with balanced conditions exhibited increases in the GRI rankings. The sensitivity analysis provides useful insights into the development of GRI for end-users to assess the effects of groundwater vulnerability against potential changes or stressors in semi-arid to hyper-arid regions.

Guest Editors’ Introduction

A New European Neglected Diseases Center for Greece?

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region stands out globally both for the immensity of its energy resources, and the paucity of its freshwater resources. Most energy extraction and conversion technologies have associated freshwater demand, and in the MENA region these account for 2 % of the available sustainable supply. We examine how this demand could change over the 21st century, assuming growth in population and economic output, and considering three alternative pathways for energy efficiency, carbon intensity, and energy exports from the region. We find that in the pathway marked by improved efficiency, a transition to renewable energy sources, and declining energy exports, water consumption for energy is twice as high as today's values by the end of the century. By contrast, in the pathway marked by continued commitment to fossil resource extraction, use, and export, water demand for energy might rise by a factor of five. If the region were to maintain high levels of energy exports, but would substitute the export of fossil fuels by an equivalent amount of electricity derived from sunlight, a freshwater volume comparable to the household needs of up to 195 million people could be saved.

Planet Earth, now home to about 6.5 billion human beings, has thus far disproved the doomsayers. In 1798, Rev. Thomas Robert Malthus predicted that population would outrun food supply on the assumption that human numbers would increase at a geometric rate while food would be limited to arithmetic increases. Then, in 1968, Stanford University professor Paul R. Ehrlich issued a similar warning in his book The Population Bomb, in which he predicted that hundreds of millions of people would die of starvation in the 1970s and 1980s. Both men underestimated humanity’s resourcefulness—as well as its scientific and technological acumen—in figuring out how to provide for its growing numbers. Still, there’s little doubt that the Earth’s human carrying capacity has a limit. And growth can’t continue indefinitely without more of the significant environmental health impacts we are already seeing. In addition to documenting exactly how much growth is occurring, scientists are now interested in trends reflecting where such growth is occurring and the effect of factors such as consumption rates and migration on sustainability of the Earth’s resources.

Capacity building for Decentralised Wastewater Treatment Solutions (DEWATS) can play a significant role in the alleviation of water constraints in Jordan and Palestine. The paper summarises practical experience with a pilot teaching unit for primary schools based on demonstration technology and capacity building in the field of DEWATS. The training programme has the goal of raising public awareness and understanding of water issues, and gives pupils the opportunity to conduct experiments in water/wastewater analysis and build wastewater filters and construct wetlands models. This training encourages reflection about wastewater components and shows the participants the advantages of wastewater treatment and the potential for reusing wastewater in decentralised systems. Additionally, the experiments help students understand wastewater as a resource, especially in MENA (Middle East and North Africa) regions with water shortages. The students build a constructed wetland model, which helps them to view constructed wetlands treatment systems as a modern and ecological treatment technology that blends in well with the environment and can provide solutions for wastewater treatment and irrigation purposes. The paper aims to assess the results of a pilot training project conducted in primary schools during November 2008 in Ramallah, Palestine, and April 2009 in Al-Salt, Jordan. In addition, the paper looks at the essential challenges involved in developing the programme on a national scale in Jordan and Palestine, incorporating it into the official curriculum, and evaluating its local impact with the overall aim of more effective and equitable use and allocation of water resources.

Towards Renewable energy targets for the Middle East and North African region: A decarbonization assessment of energy-water nexus

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017