ENCOUNTER, SURVIVAL, AND MOVEMENT PROBABILITIES FROM AN ATLANTIC PUFFIN (FRATERCULA ARCTICA) METAPOPULATION

Abstract

Several weaknesses in our understanding of long-lived animal populations have persisted, mainly due to a prevalence of studies of a single local population at the expense of multisite studies. We performed a multisite capture–mark–resight analysis using 2050 Atlantic Puffins (Fratercula arctica) banded as chicks on four islands (colonies) over 24 years in the Gulf of Maine, USA and Canada. Within program MARK, encounter, apparent survival, pre-breeding movement (PBM; annual movements between colonies prior to breeding), and natal dispersal (ND) probabilities were modeled as functions of age, colony, and several covariates. Information-theoretic model selection criteria and estimated model effect sizes were used to identify important effects and select models to estimate parameters. Encounter probabilities were extremely variable (0.10–0.95) and declined annually starting six years after bands were applied, due to changes in resighting effort, and band wear, respectively. Colony-dependent survival probabil...