Empirical evidence of direct and indirect relations between environmental pressure and conflict

It is the intention in this paper to conduct an inquiry into the relations between general equilibrium analysis and public policy by the indirect method of examining the place of such analysis in the solution of a definite economic problem. The problem selected is the possibility of raising wages without raising prices. Traditional partial equilibrium theory made the solution of this problem a fairly simple one, but modern general equilibrium considerations, dynamic qualifications on these, and institutional changes in the organization of business and labour have opened up such areas of indeterminateness in the formation of prices that we may no longer trust the answers given by the simpler generalizations.In the development of ideas during this paper, the term “degree of monopoly” will be employed rather frequently. The term will be used in Professor Lerner's sense of the ratio between the excess of price over marginal cost and price itself. In terms of Figure 1, this is the ratio RP/MP. This definition has limitations but it is retained as the simplest to which analysis may be referred and sufficient for the particular purposes for which it is required here.The idea that the rise of wages in relation to prices may have consequences for the levels of employment and national income is, of course, based upon the Keynesian hypothesis that larger wage incomes in relation to national income as a whole tend to mean a lower level of savings, and the corollary that a lower level of net new investment will be needed to maintain a given level of employment and income where the wage share is higher. There is also some opinion that changes in the degree of monopoly during the business cycle are such as to aggravate the operation of the disequilibrating forces. For example, Dr. M. Kalecki in an article published in Econometrica in April, 1938, suggests that the Keynesian analysis respecting the relation between wages and prices requires emendation and expansion because it appears from his statistical and theoretical analysis that the degree of monopoly increases with recessions of the business cycle and decreases with its upward phase. If this be so, Dr. Kalecki points out that the cyclical redistribution of income carries with it the necessity of attaching a larger quantity of new investment to any given level of national income as the level of national income recedes, though this reasoning is qualified for effects of falling wages on the foreign balance.

A) The Case of a Closed Economy Without Government Activity 1.The case when intended net investment is positive and given 2.The case when net investment depends on national income 3.Changes in national income resulting from changes in the propensities to invest and consume (the multiplier problem) 4.Comparative-static analysis 5.Dynamic analysis 6.The history and development of multiplier theory (the multi-sector multiplier) 7.The case when net investment depends on the rate of interest 8.The quantity theory of money 9.The acceleration principle 10.The acceleration principle and the determination of income 11.The basic principles of the theory of long-run growth B) The Case of a Closed Economy With Government Activity 1. Introductory 2. Various Concepts of Income 3. The effect of government expenditure on the level of national income 4. The effect of taxes and government borrowing on national income 5. The combined effect of changes in government expenditure and revenue 6. The case when taxation varies with the level of income C) The Balance of Payments and National Income 1. The determinants of national income in an open economy 2. The export multiplier 3. The export multiplier in the case of a two-country model 4. The investment multiplier in the case of a two-country model 5. The balance of payments and the rate of exchange 6. Devaluation and the terms of trade 7. The effects of changes in the conditions of demand and supply on the balance of payments 8. Concluding remarks

Since the reform and opening-up policy, China’s economy has achieved a sustainable and fast growth. However, the traditional economic growth mode with high investments, high consumption, and high emissions causes a growing contradiction between China’s economic growth and environment. How to select an economic growth way with the harmonious development of society, economy, ecology, and environment with the restriction of environment is meaningful in theory and practice. Whether there is a reverse U-shape relationship between the national income per capita and the environmental pressure affects the policy choice of economic growth mode. If there is a reverse U-shape relationship between the national income per capita and the environmental pressure, the government can only implement measures driving the economic growth. Once economy grows to certain degree, environmental pressure will decline naturally. However, there is not a reverse U-shape relationship between them, or although there is a reverse U-shape relationship, the national income per capita at the turning point is hard to realize, the development mode adopted by many developing countries that emphasizes on economic growth, polluting first, then improving, will do nothing but worsen the environment. The government should take action to change the economic growth mode, decreasing the pressure on environment caused by economic growth. Only by this way, can it realize the sustainable development of economy. This paper firstly analyzes and comments the empirical studies of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), then makes regression on the national income per capita for years and the main pollutants indexes, analyzing the relationship between China’s national income per capita and environmental pressure. An empirical study shows that the relationship between China’s emission of main pollutants and the national income per capita does not follow a typical EKC.

What is the relationship between resource scarcity and abundance, on the one hand, and intrastate conflict, on the other? Under what conditions do natural resources cause conflict? Which types of resources can better predict the onset, intensity, and duration of intrastate conflict? These questions and other related questions are needed to discuss how renewable as well as non-renewable resources influence the onset, intensity, and duration of intrastate conflict. In particular, there are two strands of the literature: the first strand deals with renewable resources, such as water, cropland, forests, fish stocks, etc., and examines how the scarcity of such resources leads to resource completion and subsequently to a greater risk of conflict. In this context, it also discusses the more recent literature on climate change and conflict. The second strand deals with non-renewable resources that tend to have a high value-to-weight ratio, such as fossil fuels and minerals, and evaluates how abundance of such resources affects potential “greed” and “grievance” motives of rebels to take up arms as well as a state’s capacity to put down a rebellion, both of which can lead to civil conflicts. Overall, with the exception of the very recent empirical work on climate change as a “threat multiplier,” the bulk of the empirical evidence provides non-robust and often even contradictory results and thus does not allow for a clear-cut conclusion: while some studies support the link between resource scarcity/abundance and armed conflict, others find no or only weak links. The inconclusiveness of the results might be due to various factors, such as the inability/failure of the extant literature to adequately address the mechanisms via which resource scarcity and abundance could lead to conflict as well as which types of natural resources, including climatic changes, matter most. Moreover, empirical studies differ with regard to the type of conflict under study, ranging from violence against the government (civil wars [1,000 deaths], civil conflict [25 deaths], and low-intensity conflict [protests and riots]) to intercommunal violence (conflict that occurs between competing groups within a state), the operationalization and/or measurement of the types of resource scarcity and abundance, and the appropriate level of analysis (individual, household, subnational, national).

The past decade has witnessed a growing recognition of the economic effects of government finance. Government expenditures and revenues, government borrowing and debt repayment are studied, not for their impact on the Treasury, but for their impact on the economy. It is recognized now more than ever before that each aspect of government finance may be used as an instrument of economic policy to influence the size of the nation's income or alter the character of the nation's output. At first the problems of the depression and now the necessities of the war have converted “government finance” into “fiscal policy.” The theory of fiscal policy, reborn in the depression, nurtured during the recovery and matured in the war, has become the handmaiden of the government official and the political economist.In spite of the great amount of attention it has received, the theory of fiscal policy still lacks complete co-ordination of its various faculties and still suffers from frequent reversion to its childhood days. During the time of deep depression when the multiplier theory was developed it was taken for granted by many economists that deficits were the appropriate instrument for raising the level of national income. Since widespread unemployment and underemployment existed there was little need for differentiating real from money income, since a general rise in prices was not very likely and, in any case, was desirable. During the war, however, we wish to raise only the real income or the physical output, and then only the output of war materials, and keep down as much as possible the money national income and the price level. How must the theory of fiscal policy be changed as a result of these new objectives and altered conditions? And when the war is over will we have to resort to deficit-spending to prevent a depression? Are deficits, which were required to raise the level of national income, appropriate for maintaining a high level of national income? We must exercise the greatest care in answering these questions and we must guard against glibly applying some ready formula which we ourselves have carried over from the pre-war days of business depression. It is necessary first of all to examine the structure of fiscal policy (Part i) and trace through the interrelations among expenditures, taxation, borrowing, debt repayment, and national income (Part ii). Then we can see how fiscal policy may be used to achieve desired ends and avoid dangerous pitfalls during the war (Part iii) and in the post-war period (Part iv).

This research aims to analyze the effect of interest rates, inflation and national income against the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar. As for the data used in this research is secondary data, with this type of time series data in the period 2006-2016 obtained from Bank Indonesia and the World Bank. The method of this research method using exposé facto. Data analysis techniques used in this research is the analysis of multiple regression. By using multiple regression analysis model, the output shows that interest rates (X 1) positive and significant effect of the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar up (Y). Inflation rate (X 2) do not affect the exchange rate of the rupiah significantly to top u.s. dollars (Y). National income (X 3) a positive effect of the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar up (Y). Of test results by looking at their significance value F = 0.000 then it can be said to be 0.05 < simultaneously interest rates, inflation and national income effect significant at α = 5% against the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar in the year 2006-2016. The value of the coefficient of determination (R2) acquired for 0.660 has a sense that the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar can be explained by the level of interest rates, inflation and national income amounted to 66% while the rest is explained by other factors that do not exist in the model for this research.

Increase in production as measured in national income is generally called economic growth, identified with an increase in welfare an conveived as the indicator from economic success. All countries of world give it the highest priority in their economic policy. At the same time, the present increases in national income are being accompanied by destruction of the environment. It is necesary consider the trouble of scarce resources at man’s disponsal. This text will 1) Outline information which should be included when national accounts are published in order to avoid misinterpretation of the changes in the level of national income by politicians and the public; 2) Examine whether it is possible to correct national income for environmental losses; 3) Propose a parctical and defensible solution for this problem; 5) Sum up advantages and disadvantages of this solution.

IntroductionThe present study aimed to provide a more accurate representation of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in college students during COVID-19 by performing meta-analyses by continents, national income, and study majors, and comparing the results with estimated pooled prevalence.MethodsBased on the guideline of PRISMA, literature was searched in PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase. The prevalence of PTSD was estimated through a random model based on the different continents and levels of national income, as well as study majors, and compared with the pooled prevalence of PTSD among college students.ResultsTotally 381 articles were retrieved from electronic databases and 38 articles were included in the present meta-analysis. The results showed that the pooled prevalence of college students’ PTSD was 25% (95% CI: 21–28%). Prevalence estimates of PTSD among college students were statistically significant (p < 0.00001) when stratified with geographical regions, income levels, and study majors. In comparison with the pooled prevalence of PTSD (25%), subgroups of Africa and Europe, lower-middle-income countries, and medical college students possessed higher prevalence estimates.DiscussionThe findings of the study showed that the prevalence of PTSD in college students worldwide during COVID-19 was relatively high and varied in different continents and countries with different income levels. Therefore, healthcare providers should pay attention to the psychologically healthy condition of college students during COVID-19.

We explore whether national economic prosperity enhances mutual generalized trust. This is done using a panel data of multiple waves of the World Values Surveys, whereby national income levels are instrumented for using exogenous oil price shocks. We find significant and substantial effects of national income on the level of trust in the economy. In particular, a 1% increase in national income tends to cause an average increase of 1 percentage point (or more) in the likelihood that a person becomes trustful. We also identify crime and corruption as potential mechanisms that may lead to the reported causal effect and explore heterogeneous effects across individuals.

In a recent paper in this Journal,' Thomas J. Sargent examines the relationship between the nominal rate of interest and the expected rate of change of prices within the framework of a linear dynamic macroeconomic model, which is Keynesian in structure, but [which] assigns important roles to price level adjustments and anticipations of inflation, effects frequently emphasized by monetarists. 2 This model consists of six equations in six unknowns. Real desired consumption is a function of real permanent income (a distributed lag of current and past levels of real national income). Real desired investment depends on a distributed lag of changes in national income and on a distributed lag of the real interest rate (a kind of Jorgensonian user cost of capital: in the Sargent model, nominal interest rate minus expected rate of inflation). Real national income is equal in equilibrium to the sum of real consumption and investment. The demand for nominal money balances depends on distributed lags 3 of the nominal interest rate, real national income, and price level. (The last two variables are expected to have opposite signs, since the equation is a linear approximation of a demand for money function that depends on the nominal level of national income.) The equilibrium condition in the monetary market is given by the equality between the demand for and the exogenous supply of nominal money balances. To close the model, Sargent introduces a Phillips-curve mechanism in which the price level at time t equals the price level at time t1 plus an adjustment involving the difference between the current level of real income and that level (called full-employment income) that is consistent with stable prices.

Does Economic Prosperity Breed Trust?

Over the past decades, both the quantity and quality of food supply for millions of people have improved substantially in the course of economic growth across the developing world. However, the number of undernourished people has resumed growth in the 2010s amid food supply disruptions, economic slowdowns, and protectionist restrictions to agricultural trade. Having been common to most nations, these challenges to the food security status of the population still vary depending on the level of economic development and national income of individual countries. In order to explore the long-run determinants of food supply transformations, this study employs five-stage multiple regression analysis to identify the strengths and directions of effects of agricultural production parameters, income level, price indices, food trade, and currency exchange on supply of calories, proteins, and fats across 11 groups of agricultural products in 1980–2018. To address the diversity of effects across developing nations, the study includes 99 countries of Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa categorized as low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income economies. It is found that in low-income countries, food supply parameters are more strongly affected by production factors compared to economic and trade variables. The effect of economic factors on the food supply of higher-value food products, such as meat and dairy products, fruit, and vegetables, increases with the rise in the level of income, but it stays marginal for staples in all three groups of countries. The influence of trade factors on food supply is stronger compared to production and economic parameters in import-dependent economies irrelevant of the gross national income per capita. The approach presented in this paper contributes to the research on how food supply patterns and their determinants evolve in the course of economic transformations in low-income countries.

Background: Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading global cause of death and share common risk factors. Little quantitative data are available on the patterns of each NCDs death and dietary factors by national income level and region. We aimed to identify the trend of NCDs deaths and dietary factors with other health-related behaviors across national income levels and geographical regions. Methods: Three databases were collected, including the World Health Organization, Food and Agriculture Organization, and World Bank in 2014. These were analyzed to describe the trend for NCDs deaths and dietary factors with health-related behaviors across national income levels (high income, upper-middle income, lower-middle income, and low income) from 151 countries using variance-weighted least-squares linear regression. Results: Lower-middle-income and low-income countries in Africa and Asia had higher death rates of NCDs. More than 30% of the population had raised blood pressure with higher carbohydrate intake and lower protein and fat intake compared to high-income European countries in 2014. High-income countries had the highest prevalence of raised total cholesterol, overweight, and obesity, the highest total energy, fat, and protein intake, and the highest supplies of animal fat, stimulants, sugar and sweetener, vegetable oil, and milk, as well as insufficient activity with an increasing trend (p for trend < 0.001). Conclusion: There were differences in NCDs risk factors and dietary factors by national income and region. Accordingly, measures should be taken to suit the situation in each country. Our findings have significance for health workers and health policies preventing and controlling the rise of NCDs.

Based on a macro‐model framed in terms of China's agricultural, industrial, government and household sectors, this paper aims to identify the effects of agricultural production fluctuations on the Chinese macroeconomy over the period 1949–89. Using annual national time‐series data, Granger‐causality tests indicate that fluctuations in China's agricultural production have been a statistically significant cause of changes in other types of Chinese macroeconomic activity. Impulse response analysis shows that shocks in China's agricultural production were followed by analogous responses in national consumption, industrial output, investment, exports and income which peaked with a two‐year lag and vanished after 6 years. Variance decomposition analysis indicates that changes in China's agricultural production were the most important determinant of changes in the level of national consumption and the second most important determinant of changes in the level of industrial production, national investment, exports and national income.

Based on a macro-model framed in terms of China's agricultural, industrial, government and household sectors, this paper aims to identify the effects of agricultural production fluctuations on the Chinese macroeconomy over the period 1949–1989. Using annual national time-series data, Granger-causality tests indicate that fluctuations in China's agricultural production have been a statistically significant cause of changes in other types of Chinese macroeconomic activity. Impulse response analysis shows that shocks in China's agricultural production were followed by analogous responses in national consumption, industrial output, investment, exports and income which peaked with a two-year lag and vanished after 6 years. Variance decomposition analysis indicates that changes in China's agricultural production were the most important determinant of changes in the level of national consumption and the second most important determinant of changes in the level of industrial production, national investment, exports and national income.