Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change | VOL. 3
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Emissions Scenarios Database and Review of Scenarios

Publication Date Jan 1, 1998

Abstract

This paper reviews and analyzes more than 400 scenarios of global and regional greenhouse gas emissions and their main driving forces - population, economy, energy intensity, and carbon intensity - drawn from an extensive literature survey and summarized in a database. This new and growing database is available online, which makes summary statistics on these scenarios widely available. The scenarios in the database were collected from almost 200 different literature sources and other scenario evaluation activities. The ultimate objective of the database is to include all relevant global and regional emissions scenarios. This paper shows how the database can be utilized for the analysis of greenhouse gas emissions ranges across the scenarios in the literature and for the analysis of their main driving forces. The scenarios in the database display a large range of future greenhouse gas emissions. Part of the range can be attributed to the different methods and models used to formulate the scenarios, which include simple spreadsheet models, macroeconomic models and systems-engineering models. However, most of the range is due to differences in the input assumptions for the scenarios, in particular of the main scenario driving forces. Special emphasis is given to an analysis of medians and ranges of scenario distributions and the distributions of the main scenario driving forces in the database. The analysis shows that the range for projected population increase in the world, across the scenarios in the database, is the smallest...

Concepts

Analysis Of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Carbon Intensity Of Energy Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions Carbon Intensity Greenhouse Gas Emissions World Product Systems-engineering Models Scenarios Of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis Of Gas Emissions Global Emissions

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