Environmetrics | VOL. 19
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Emissions of greenhouse gases attributable to the activities of the land transport: modelling and analysis using I-CIR stochastic diffusion—the case of Spain

Publication Date Jan 1, 2008

Abstract

SUMMARY In this study, carried out on the basis of the conclusions and methodological recommendations of the Fourth Assessment Report (2007) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we consider the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), and particularly those of CO2, attributable to the activities of land transport, for all sectors of the economy, as these constitute a significant proportion of total GHG emissions. In particular, the case of Spain is an example of a worrying situation in this respect, both in itself and in the context of the European Union. To analyse the evolution, in this case, of such emissions, to enable medium-term forecasts to be made and to obtain a model that will enable us to analyse the effects of possible corrector mechanisms, we have statistically fitted a inverse Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (I-CIR) type nonlinear stochastic diffusion process, on the basis of the real data measured for the period 1990–2004, during which the Kyoto protocol has been applicable. We have studied the evolution of the trend of these emissions using estimated trend functions, for which purpose probabilistic complements such as trend functions and stationary distribution are incorporated, and a statistical methodology (estimation and asymptotic inference) for this diffusion, these tools being necessary for the application of the analytical methodology proposed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Concepts

International Panel On Climate Change Asymptotic Inference Emissions Of Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse Gases Stochastic Diffusion Activities Of Transport Kyoto Protocol Stationary Distribution Nonlinear Stochastic Process Nonlinear Diffusion Process

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No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors. The conception and design of the study, acquisition of data, analysis and interpretatio...

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