Electromobility Prospects in Greece by 2030: A Regional Perspective on Strategic Policy Analysis

Abstract

Electromobility represents a strong option for reducing carbon emissions in the road transport sector. This study presents a methodology and a simulation tool that project the evolution of the market share of electric vehicles (EVs) in the new car market. The analysis adopts a stylized regional resolution, which accounts for attributes on the NUTS-2 level, such as the population density, GDP/capita, education levels, and current EV charger distribution, to simulate the uptake of BEVs in different regions. The methodology applies discrete choice modelling techniques, considering tangible and intangible factors, including purchasing and operation costs, an estimated cost for range anxiety and public charging, and a market maturity index. The analysis is based on four different scenarios, referring to the updated Greek National Energy Climate Plan. The results reveal that regions with a higher average income, GDP/capita, and population density show a higher uptake of EVs. Overall, the tool implements a method of simulating the market evolution of EVs up to 2030 in reference to regional parameters and, hence, highlights the regions that require the most attention in order to achieve national targets. The results can inform policymakers in developing tailored strategies and financial support to accelerate the adoption of BEVs, particularly in regions where their uptake prospects are lower.