Abstract
Subject The outlook for Hong Kong's chief executive election. Significance On March 26, Hong Kong will elect a new chief executive to head the city's government for the next five years. He or she will be elected not by universal suffrage but by a 1,194-member Election Committee. This year's election is the first since the 1997 handover of Hong Kong to China where the outcome is uncertain: the incumbent, Leung Chun-ying, has decided not to run for a second term, and there are two potential successors acceptable to Beijing. Impacts Leung is so unpopular that the winner will have greater ability to manoeuvre simply by virtue of not being him. At very least, the winner will consolidate support among the establishment; however, the honeymoon will be short. The election will shed light on Beijing's influence and intentions in the city.
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