Effects of particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration and components on mortality in chronic kidney disease patients: a nationwide spatial–temporal analysis

Abstract

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major global public health issue and the leading cause of death in Thailand. This study investigated the spatial–temporal association between PM2.5 and its components (organic carbon, black carbon, dust, sulfate, and sea salt) and CKD mortality in Thailand from 2012 to 2021. The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Application version 2 (MERRA-2), a NASA atmospheric satellite model, was assessed for the temporal data of PM2.5 concentration and aerosol components. Spatial resources of 77 provinces were integrated using the Geographical Information System (GIS). Multivariate Poisson regression and Bayesian inference analyses were conducted to explore the effects of PM2.5 on CKD mortality across the provinces. Our analysis included 718,686 CKD-related deaths, resulting in a mortality rate of 1107 cases per 100,000 population where was the highest rate in Northeast region. The average age of the deceased was 72.43 ± 13.10 years, with males comprising 50.46% of the cases. Adjusting for age, sex, underlying diseases, co-morbidities, CKD complications, replacement therapy, population density, and income, each 1 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5, black carbon, dust, sulfate, and organic carbon was significantly associated with increased CKD mortality across 77 provinces. Incidence rate ratios were 1.04 (95% CI 1.03–1.04) for PM2.5, 1.11 (95% CI 1.10–1.13) for black carbon, 1.24 (95% CI 1.22–1.25) for dust, 1.16 (95% CI 1.16–1.17) for sulfate, and 1.05 (95% CI 1.04–1.05) for organic carbon. These findings emphasize the significant impact of PM2.5 on CKD mortality and underscore the need for strategies to reduce PM emissions and manage CKD co-morbidities effectively.