Effects of inflation uncertainty on corporate financing

رابطه میان تورم و نااطمینانی آن می تواند تحت تأثیر رژیم های تورمی مختلف قرار گیرد . تحقیقات انجام شده در ایران، نقش این رژیم ها در ارتباط پویای تورم و نااطمینانی را بررسی نکرده اند. به‌منظور پرکردن این خلأ در ادبیات اقتصاد ایران، این مقاله به مطالعه رابطه میان تورم و نااطمینانی آن با وجود انتقال رژیم و با توجه به رفتار نامتقارن الگو می پردازد. برای دستیابی به این هدف از تبدیل مارکوف در چارچوب یک الگوی تعمیم یافته گارچ نامتقارن استفاده می گردد. به این منظور دو معادله به ترتیب برای تورم و نااطمینانی آن، برای دوره (2013:07-1990:03) برآورد می گردد. معادله اول تحت دو رژیم فشار تورمی فزاینده وکاهنده و معادله دوم رفتار در دو وضعیت نوسانات تورمی زیاد و کم برآورد می شود. برآوردها نشان می دهد که اثر نااطمینانی تورم بر سطح تورم در رژیم فشار تورمی فزاینده، مثبت اما در رژیم فشار تورمی کاهنده، منفی است. همچنین در وضعیت نوسانات تورمی زیاد، افزایش تورم باعث ازدیاد نااطمینانی اما در وضعیت نوسانات تورمی کم، سطح تورم بر نااطمینانی تورم تأثیری ندارد. اثرات تکانه های مثبت قیمتی بر نااطمینانی بیش تر از تکانه های منفی می باشد و احتمال ماندگاری در هر وضعیت تورمی در ایران بالا است. با توجه به نتایج، به نظر می رسد که اتخاذ سیاست های تثبیت قیمت ها نه‌تنها در کاهش تورم بلکه در کاهش نااطمینانی تورم نیز نقش مهمی دارند؛ بنابراین، پیشنهاد می گردد که دولت و به‌ویژه بانک مرکزی از اتخاذ سیاست های اقتصادی که به نااطمینانی تورم دامن می زند، اجتناب نماید. ازجمله نتایج مهم دیگر این تحقیق که باید مورد توجه مسئولین پولی قرار گیرد، اهمیت تشخیص درست و به‌موقع نوع رژیم تورمی کشور برای اتخاذ سیاست مناسب است.

On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico

Since the 2008-09 global financial crisis, both emerging and developed economies have encountered increased economic uncertainty. Despite substantial research on macroeconomic uncertainties, there remains a significant gap in understanding asymmetric causal relationships between inflation uncertainty and economic growth in inflation-targeting emerging markets. This study addresses this gap by exploring both symmetric and asymmetric causality between inflation uncertainty and economic growth in selected countries: Brazil, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Greece, India, Korea, Mexico, Russia, and Türkiye. Asymmetric causality tests are crucial as they offer a more nuanced view of how inflation uncertainty and economic growth impact each other in distinct ways, which is vital for enhancing macroeconomic stability and policy effectiveness. The research employs the ARMA-GARCH model to estimate inflation uncertainty and applies both symmetric and asymmetric causality tests. The findings reveal a unidirectional causality from inflation uncertainty to economic growth in Brazil and Bulgaria, and from economic growth to inflation uncertainty in Russia and Türkiye. Furthermore, asymmetric shock analysis shows that negative shocks in inflation uncertainty lead to negative shocks in economic growth in Russia and Korea, while positive shocks in inflation uncertainty correspond with positive shocks in economic growth in India. These insights can help policymakers in emerging markets develop more effective monetary policies. Future research should include a broader range of countries and additional macroeconomic variables to validate these findings and explore inflation uncertainty dynamics further.

The authors constructed a time series of monthly inflation uncertainty in Turkey from 1960 to 1998 using GARCH models and investigated the link between inflation and inflation uncertainty using Granger tests. The authors found strong statistical support that inflation significantly raised inflation uncertainty in Turkey over the full sample period and three subsamples. The evidence on the effect of inflation uncertainty on average inflation is mixed and depends on the time period examined. An analysis of the political conditions and the record of macroeconomic policy making in Turkey between 1960 and 1998 reveal institutional and political factors that can help explain the empirical results.

Teorias sugerem que empresas selecionam sua estrutura de capital de acordo com atributos teóricos que determinam os vários custos e benefícios associados à emissão de ações ou de dívida. Em uma tentativa de resposta a essa questão, o trabalho desenvolvido por Titman e Wessels (1988) para o mercado americano mostrou-se bastante relevante. Com base nesse estudo e utilizando análise fatorial, procurou-se verificar também para o mercado latino-americano, representado por México, Argentina e Chile, quais seriam os fatores indutores do endividamento das empresas de capital aberto nesses países. Os resultados revelam que os fatores indutores variam de acordo com o país: no México, todos os atributos, à exceção do atributo estrutura dos ativos, mostraram-se relacionados ao grau de endividamento. Na Argentina, apenas o atributo lucratividade mostrou-se relacionado ao grau de endividamento. No Chile, houve relação significativa entre os atributos tamanho, lucratividade e estrutura dos ativos.

This study examines the relationship between inflation uncertainty and price components in general price level. It examines which price components at general price level cause inflation uncertainty, and also which price components are more affected by such uncertainty. The Turkish economy is observed with regard to the time period between January 2003 and September 2011, and inflation uncertainty is obtained by being defined as conditional variance within the inflation process, which itself is estimated according to not only a function of its past values, but also a set of data including money supply, industrial production index, exchange rate, and interest rate. The relationship between price components and inflation uncertainty is analysed, using Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response and Variance Decompositions Analysis. As per the findings, the effect of inflation uncertainty on the price components of general price level, and similarly, the effects of price components of general price level on the inflation uncertainty differ.

A standard Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (q,v) model is employed to construct a measure of monthly inflation uncertainty in 12 emerging market economies, and the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is examined using Granger‐causality tests. The results suggest that higher inflation rates increased inflation uncertainty in all the economies, providing strong support for the Friedman hypothesis. The evidence on the effect of inflation uncertainty on average monthly inflation is more mixed, with increased inflation uncertainty leading to lower average inflation in Colombia, Israel, Mexico, and Turkey, consistent with the Holland hypothesis, but to higher average inflation in Hungary, Indonesia, and Korea, consistent with the hypothesis of Cukierman and Meltzer.

The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of inflation uncertainty on the volatility of benchmark interest rate which is the market indicator. In this context, the interest rate of two-year government bonds, which shows general interest rate in the economy and which occurs as a result of the preferences of decision-making units in the money market is considered as a basic variable. Inflation uncertainty is derived from Consumer Price Index (CPI) depending on Friedman’s Approach and is used as an explanatory variable. Because the use of benchmark interest rate includes the knowledge regarding the behaviour of the market decision-making units to inflation and inflation uncertainty, the results obtained are of great importance with regards to the policy proposals. In this study, the effect of inflation uncertainty on the volatility of benchmark interest rate is examined by the volatility and structural break models for the period of 2005:M4-2016:M11. The findings of the study have shown that there is a causal relationship from inflation uncertainty to interest rates between 2005:4 and 2006:5. Additionally, a causal relation from interest rates to inflation uncertainty is observed in the periods of 2013:3 and 2015:12-2016:9.

The effects of inflation uncertainty on firms and the macroeconomy

ABSTRACTThe study examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in China using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model. Particularly, this link is investigated in China’s urban and rural sectors, motivated by the substantial urban–rural divide. The results provide strong statistical supportive evidence that higher inflation raises inflation uncertainty. On the other hand, evidence on the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation is mixed depending on the sample periods and areas examined. The understanding of inflation-uncertainty nexus in China could provide implications to policymakers in the adoption of monetary policies.

SOME economists have ignored corporate financing decisions on the assumption that they do not affect the investment and production decisions of firms. Yet even if this extreme position is accepted, firms must still make financing decisions which in turn have impacts on other sectors of the economy. Since interest payments on corporate debt are tax deductible, the reliance of firms on debt as opposed to equity financing directly affects the revenue the federal government collects through taxation of corporate profits. The corporate presence in bond markets and corporate borrowing from banks can be expected to affect both interest rates and the demand for money. Thus any large macro model must somehow account for the borrowing behavior of firms. Yet in assessing this portion of the 1965 Brookings Quarterly Econometric Model of the United States, de Leeuw (1965, p. 506) writes that the regressions for business borrowing are the least successful of the model. In this paper we derive an equation for the long-term debt ratio (capital structure) of a firm which can be estimated using available data. Unlike some recent qualitative studies' on the aggregate corporate debt ratio as related to inflation and taxation over time, our primary aim is to explain differences in the debt behavior among individual firms. Tobit estimation results, explicitly allowing for the fact that some firms have no long-term debt, are presented for both U.S. and Japanese firms. Our theoretical model implies that the long-term debt ratio which maximizes the present value of the existing stockholder's equity depends positively on the cost of equity and negatively on the cost of debt, capital productivity, and retained earnings. Our estimation results are generally in agreement with these expectations. In particular, we find that capital productivity, which has not been included as an explanatory variable in most previous studies,2 and the cost of equity capital are both important determinants of the firm's capital structure. Our empirical results also support the view put forward by Komiya3 that debt ratios for Japanese firms are higher than those for U.S. firms in part because the cost of equity has been historically higher in Japan than in the United States in relation to the cost of debt. Other important attempts to explain the debt ratio as a behavioral function of the price of debt and other variables include the studies of de Leeuw (1965) and Goldfeld (1969).4 Certain conceptual problems mar these studies, however. Short-term and long-term debt are not distinguished, despite the fact that long-term debt is usually used to finance capital spending while short-term debt is used to finance inventory and

The study explores determinants of money demand (M2) in a developing economy of Pakistan using annual data ranging 1976–2017. The study contributes by two ways. Firstly, it specifically examines the potential impact of exchange rate volatility and inflation uncertainty along with conventional determinants on money demand in Pakistan. Secondly, Bayesian Statistical inference is employed and the estimates are interpreted along with highest posterior density intervals (HPDI) with probability statements in order to cope with the issue of the instability of parameters. The analysis explores the positive impact of real income as well as share prices and the negative effect of interest rate on money demand as predicted by theory and earlier findings. Significant negative estimate of exchange rate shows that substitution effect overcomes wealth effect during exchange rate variations. But magnitude of exchange rate elasticity seems to depend upon strength of depreciation rate and/or future expectations, which may be considered an important research question for future work. Insignificance of exchange rate volatility for money demand in Pakistan is found which requires further research as to know about the behaviour of wealth effect and expectation effect during forex market uncertainty. Most importantly, inflation uncertainty is found to be a potential determinant of money demand in Pakistan. Rising uncertainty of inflation rate seems to have direct effects on precautionary and transaction motives of the demand for money. Findings of this study provides useful insights for policymaking in Pakistan as well as in other developing economies by suggesting inflation uncertainty as the potential determinant of money demand. Finally, Bayesian estimates along with HPDI estimates provide new information about the effects and particularly about the possible range of elasticities.

This article investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty, and the impact of monetary policy on this relationship using monthly Turkish inflation data over January 1984 to–October 2005. The results from various types of GARCH-M models indicate that higher inflation rates lead to greater inflation uncertainty. On the other hand, the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation is found to be negative due to stabilization motives’ dominating the opportunistic incentives of monetary authorities. We find strong evidence to support the view that inflation-oriented monetary policy has power to reduce the inflation persistence and eliminate uncertainty.

This paper studies the inflation relationship analysis and inflation uncertainty with relative price’ dispersion in Iran by using the ordinary minimum squares method, during monthly data 1991:4-2012:12. In this paper, we used the GARCH technique in order to modeling and measuring the inflation uncertainty variable. The results show that inflation uncertainty increasing leads to increased relative price dispersion. Also unexpected inflation regardless of being positive or negative increases the relative price dispersion considerably, but the unexpected inflation decomposition to two positive and negative components and lack of considering them in the equation showed that each component is in a high significant level and cannot be considered for symmetric effect of positive or negative unexpected inflation. Corporations change their price against the positive unexpected inflation alternatively in responding to the inflation shocks and consequently the price will be fluctuated for reaching the balance strictly, therefore positive unexpected inflation cases have been increasing in relative price dispersion. In the other hand, corporations have no tendency for changing the goods’ price against the negative unexpected inflation. Also according to the results, inflation variable coefficient is significant from the statistical viewpoint and this means that this variable increases the relative dispersion considerably.

ABSTRACT: Capital structure is one of the crucial decisions managers must make that can affect a firm's short-term and long-term value maximization prospects. Though extant studies have shown capital structure significantly affects profits, researchers have struggled to find an optimal mix of capital structure ideal for value maximization due to the influence of macro and micro factors. There is therefore the need for this to be properly studied contextually. Building on the Pecking Order Theory, this study examines the capital structure effects on profitability from a short-term, long-term, and total debt financing perspective on listed Ghanaian firms between 2003 and 2013. An unbalanced panel data of 23 listed manufacturing and service firms that are listed on the Ghanaian Stock Exchange are subjected to robust maximum likelihood heteroskedastic linear estimation models. Three main regressions that are run explain the short-term debt, long-term debt and total debt effect on firm profitability. The results show that short-term debt exhibits a positive effect on return on equity (ROE), whilst the relationship reverses for long-term debt, indicating that short-term financing was beneficial to firms rather than long-term financing. Also, total debt exhibited a negative and non-significant effect on return on equity. The author also found that firm liquidity exhibited a more pronounced positive effect on profitability for firms with short-term debt than long-term debt. Financial risk negatively affected the returns of only firms with short-term debt. Market share had a pronounced positive effect on ROE across firms whilst firm age exhibited a less pronounced positive effect on firm profits. Firm size and growth had increasing profit effects but was not significant in the dataset. Financial risk also negatively affected profits, but this was only significant in firms with short-term debt structures. This study finds that managers need to adopt more short-term debt financing rather than long-term financing as the former leads to more profits. There is a need for policymakers to develop long-term debt financing structures to compete in the Ghanaian debt market. It is also recommended that managers exercise due care when supplementing equity capital with debt.