Abstract
Climate change and global food security issues will continue to be at the center of policy debates as long global warming prolongs due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Since agriculture is very vulnerable to climate change, various climate change scenarios are projected for the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector. However, there are conflicting hypotheses regarding the relation between climate change and agricultural production, and agricultural trade as well, in the literature. In this study, the major determinants of agricultural trade capability, including climate change indicators are analyzed in the European food market. First of all, Turkey and its major rivals are included in the analysis because Turkey is one of the major agricultural exporters and ranks the 16th in global agricultural market. The share of the 5irst 16 countries covers 60% of agricultural exports in the world. Secondly, the major rivals of Turkey are determined in the European food market and categorized as emerging and developing countries. Then, panel data models are employed to analyze the main determinants of agricultural trade for 16 countries for the period of 1990-2008. The empirical evidence supports that climate change affects the agricultural trade capability of food exporters in the European Market. Fixed Effect Model results reveal that particulate emission damage decreases agricultural trade capability of emerging and developed countries in the European food market. In addition, carbon dioxide emission level is favorable for agricultural trade capability in developed countries due to usage of energy sources and the efficiency in agricultural production. Contradicting results are applicable for emerging countries since the carbon dioxide emission level is favorable mainly for the industrial sector. Furthermore, carbon dioxide intensity is also negatively correlated with the agricultural trade capability of both emerging and developed countries.
Highlights
Climate change driven by the accelerative growth of global warming has become a common threat, affecting many sectors such as agriculture, food, industry, tourism, transportation and health
Climate change and global food security issues will continue to be at the center of policy debates as long global warming prolongs due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions
There are conflicting hypotheses regarding the relation between climate change and agricultural production, and agricultural trade as well, in the literature
Summary
Climate change driven by the accelerative growth of global warming has become a common threat, affecting many sectors such as agriculture, food, industry, tourism, transportation and health. The efficiency of agricultural products and the cost of production are influenced by the temperature, precipitation, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and extreme natural events like droughts. Those impacts can change the harvest time of agricultural products and efficiency of feeding grounds. According to the report of International Panel on Climate Change (2007), 26% of the greenhouse gas in the world is derived from energy consumption, 19% is from industry facilities, and 17% is from the change in the usage of land, while 14% is from agriculture and 13% from the transportation. By increasing the amount of green plants, release of greenhouse gases can be decreased Another contribution of agriculture in decreasing the climate change is bio fuels. In contrast to fossil fuels, usage of bio fuels decreases the GHG
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