Effects of climate change and El Niño anomalies on historical declines, extinctions, and disease emergence in Brazilian amphibians.

The increasing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events resulting from climate change have led to grid outages and other negative consequences. To ensure the resilience of buildings which serve as primary shelters for occupants, resilient strategies are being developed to improve their ability to withstand these extreme events (e.g., building upgrades and renewable energy generators and storage). However, a crucial step towards creating a resilient built environment is accurately estimating building performance during such conditions using historical extreme climate change-induced weather events. To conduct Building Performance Simulation (BPS) in extreme conditions, such as weather events induced by climate change, it is essential to utilize Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) weather files instead of Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) files. AMY files capture the precise climatic conditions during extreme weather events, enabling accurate simulation of such scenarios. These weather files provide valuable data that can be used to assess the vulnerabilities and resilience of buildings to extreme weather events. By analyzing past events and their impacts using BPS tools, we can gain insights into the specific weaknesses and areas that require improvement. This approach applies to both existing buildings needing climate change-resilient retrofits and new building designs that must be compatible with future climatic conditions. Moreover, the intensification and frequency increase of these extreme weather events makes developing adaptation and resilient-building measures imperative. This involves understanding the potential losses that households may experience due to the intensification of extreme events and developing farsighted coping strategies and climate-proof resilient-building initiatives. However, addressing the knowledge gap caused by the absence of an AMY weather file dataset of extreme events is essential. This will allow for accurate BPS during past extreme climate change-induced weather events. To fill this gap, this article introduces a comprehensive .epw format weather file dataset focusing on historical extreme weather events in Canada. This collection encompasses a diverse array of past extreme climate change occurrences in various locations, with potential for future expansion to include additional locations and countries. This dataset enables energy simulations for different types of buildings and considers a diverse range of historical weather conditions, allowing for better estimation of thermal performance.

Climate change represents the greatest threat to human health, with both direct and indirect effects.  The direct increase of deaths, due to extreme weather and climate events, the emergence and spread of infectious diseases related to changing temperature, habitat and precipitation patterns, and eventually climate shocks and growing stress and anxiety that are affecting mental health. Moreover, extreme weather events cause issues on our health systems and infrastructures, reducing capacity to provide health coverage.   An increasing awareness on adverse effects of climate change is leading to an update of the EU policy framework through the introduction of  the EU Green Deal, a ‘package’ of directive, policies and strategies to ensure planning, monitoring and reporting of progress towards responsive climate adaptation and climate neutrality; however, a clear demonstration of the health-relevant outcomes of climate policies and actions is still missing, and current policies do not properly consider human health protection.   The study is developed within the Horizon Europe-funded project TRIGGER, aimed at deepening the understanding of the linkage between climate change and health and advancing society uptake at policy level.  Starting from mapping and screening the existing climate-related policies and measures at European level, this study assesses the integration of health in such documents. Specifically, through a keyword-based content analysis, it evaluates the integration of health-relevant considerations in 11 European plans and strategies, referring to climate mitigation and adaptation, environmental sustainability and biodiversity conservation. To establish to what extent they consider the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on human health, a qualitative assessment of health integration is performed, exploring also, when available, cost-benefits estimation to possible health impacts and health-related indicators developed.   The results show that extreme events, such as heat waves and droughts, heavy precipitation and flooding, are the climate-related hazards mostly mentioned in relation to health, even though the policy integration remains limited. Indeed, just few policies contain references to physical health impacts determined by climate change, such as infectious and vector borne diseases, injuries from extreme weather events and cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, while social and mental health effects are even less considered.    

The emerging risks and impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on forest ecosystems present significant threats to forest-based livelihoods. Understanding climate change and its consequences on forests and the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities could support forest-based strategies for responding to climate change. Using perception-based assessment principles, we assessed the effects of climate change and extreme weather events on forests and forest-based livelihood among the forest-dependent communities around the Mchinji and Phirilongwe Forest Reserves in the Mchinji and Mangochi districts in Malawi. Content analysis was used to analyze qualitative data. The impact of erratic rainfall, high temperatures, strong winds, flooding, and droughts was investigated using logistic regression models. The respondents perceived increasing erratic rainfall, high temperatures, strong winds, flooding, and droughts as key extreme climate events in their locality. These results varied significantly between the study sites (p < 0.05). Erratic rainfall was perceived to pose extended effects on access to the forest in both Phirilongwe in Mangochi (43%) and Mchinji (61%). Climate change was found to be associated with reduced availability of firewood, thatch grasses, fruits and food, vegetables, mushrooms, and medicinal plants (p < 0.05). Erratic rainfall and high temperatures were more likely perceived to cause reduced availability of essential forest products, and increased flooding and strong winds were less likely attributed to any effect on forest product availability. The study concludes that climate change and extreme weather events can affect the access and availability of forest products for livelihoods. Locally based approaches such as forest products domestication are recommended to address threats to climate-sensitive forest-based livelihoods.

Both climate scientists and non-scientists (laypeople) attribute extreme weather events to various influences. Laypeople’s attributions for these events are important as these attributions likely influence their views and actions about climate change and extreme events. Research has examined laypeople’s attribution scepticism about climate change in general; however, few climate scientists are familiar with the processes underpinning laypeople’s attributions for individual extreme events. Understanding these lay attributions is important for scientists to communicate their findings to the public. Following a brief summary of the way climate scientists calculate attributions for extreme weather events, we focus on cognitive and motivational processes that underlie laypeople’s attributions for specific events. These include a tendency to prefer single-cause rather than multiple-cause explanations, a discounting of whether possible causes covary with extreme events, a preference for sufficient causes over probabilities, applying prevailing causal narratives, and the influence of motivational factors. For climate scientists and communicators who wish to inform the public about the role of climate change in extreme weather events, these patterns suggest several strategies to explain scientists’ attributions for these events and enhance public engagement with climate change. These strategies include showing more explicitly that extreme weather events reflect multiple causal influences, that climate change is a mechanism that covaries with these events and increases the probability and intensity of many of these events, that human emissions contributing to climate change are controllable, and that misleading communications about weather attributions reflect motivated interests rather than good evidence.

<p>Compound events lead to substantial risks to societies around the globe. As climate change is increasingly exacerbating the intensity and frequency of many hazards in vulnerable regions, ex situ responses to climate change including human mobility and displacement are starkly moving into the spotlight. Whilst proactive migration is often used as an adaptation response to the impact of climate and weather events, reactive migration following unprecedented climatic shocks is often involuntarily and can seriously disrupt livelihoods and undermine human security. The extent to which human mobility (here, measured by internal displacement) can be attributed to extreme weather and compound events and in turn, whether and to what extent extreme weather events and consequently human mobility can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, has been largely unexplored. </p><p>Applying a framework based on probabilistic event attribution (PEA) of extreme weather events, we investigate, for the first time, human mobility responses attributed to anthropogenic climate change along a causal chain from anthropogenic climate change and changing frequencies and intensities of extreme weather and climate events to human mobility outcomes. We use the April 2020 extreme precipitation which lead to flooding and associated displacement in Somalia as a feasibility study to present the state of the art of this method. Our attribution model investigates two locations: First, we attribute extreme precipitation at the origin region of the extreme event to then attribute the resulting flood event in the displacement impact region. Event though the analysis shows no attributable link to anthropogenic climate change, our method advances the field of climate impact research regarding statistical approaches, model development and evaluation. For our feasibility study, we also find that sparsity of climate observations reveal one of many reasons for a lack of a climate change signal, which suggests an application of our model to other climate event contexts is needed to further test our method.</p>

Climate change and infectious disease by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) are major drivers of amphibian extinctions, but the potential interactions of these two factors are not fully understood. Temperature is known to influence (1) the infectivity, pathogenicity and virulence of Bd; (2) host-parasite dynamics, especially when both hosts and parasites are ectothermic organisms exhibiting thermal sensitivities that may or may not differ; and (3) amphibian vulnerability to extinction depending on their heat tolerance, which may decrease with infection. Thus, in a global warming scenario, with rising temperatures and more frequent and extreme weather events, amphibians infected by Bd could be expected to be more vulnerable if temperatures approach their critical thermal maximum (CTmax). However, it is also possible that predicted high temperatures could clear the Bd infection, thus enhancing amphibian survival. We tested these hypotheses by measuring CTmax values of Bd-infected and Bd-free aquatic tadpoles and terrestrial toadlets/juveniles of the common midwife toad (Alytes obstetricans) and examining whether exposure of A. obstetricans individuals to peak temperatures reaching their CTmax clears them from Bd infection. We show that (1) Bd has a wide thermal tolerance range; (2) Bd is capable of altering the thermal physiology of A. obstetricans, which is stage-dependent, lowering CTmax in tadpoles but not in toadlets; and (3) Bd infection is not cleared after exposure of tadpoles or toadlets to CTmax. Living under climatic change with rising temperatures, the effect of Bd infection might tip the balance and lead some already threatened amphibian communities towards extinction.

The reality of climate change continues to influence the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides. The impacts of the cumulative interplay of these extreme weather and climate events variation continue to perturb governments causing a scramble into formation of mitigation policies. However, national scale composites of climate hotspots remain a bottle neck to this policy formation. This paper therefore, modelled the spatially explicit extreme weather and climate events indicators into a Uganda-national extreme weather and climate events composite hotspot indicator model. The hotspot model was mapped into decomposable sub-indicators based on the Geon concept. A spatial indicator framework was developed through literature review and expert knowledge. The resulting indicators were weighted using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) /factor analysis and then normalized. They were aggregated using Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) tools in an Object Based Image Analysis (OBIA) environment. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to ascertain the influence and significance of the indicators in the resultant model. A cumulative climate change index model was hence analysed and mapped. The mapping provides spatially explicit information regarding climate extremes at national scale, consequently addressing its growing demand among public and private institutions. Further research, into the complex interactions of cumulative climatic factors and external components like ecological systems and anthropogenic biomes will go a long way in boosting climate information. This coupled with easy access to open web availability; if adopted, will readily inform national climate change policy at national level and greatly improve decision making within development sectors, hence mitigating the advance effects of climate change.

It is a perilous time to be a farmer. Across the world, 2015 broke records for unseasonal, unprecedented, and unexpected weather. The combination of El Nino and climate change produced conditions with devastating effects for the agriculture sector around the globe. This article examines the impacts of unseasonal weather on farmers around the world, in losses to yield quality and quantity but also in economic, physical and psychological effects for farmers coping with the “new normal” in weather. It considers regional differences in farmers’ susceptibility to unseasonal weather, and presents the implications of the lack of resiliency of the major crop producers for the future of food security, and by extension, political stability. Finally, it looks at how the international community is addressing this situation, concluding with practical and achievable means for farmers and cooperatives to start to build resiliency to climate change today.

Increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather conditions caused by climate change can have a negative impact on rail service performance and also increases total ownership costs. Research has shown that adverse weather conditions are responsible for 5 to 10 % of total failures and 60 % of delays on the railway infrastructure in Sweden. The impact of short-term and long-term effects of climate change and extreme weather events depends on the design characteristics of the railway assets, geographical location, operational profile, maturity of the climate adaptation, etc. These extreme events will have major consequences such as traffic disruption, accidents, and higher maintenance costs during the operation and maintenance (O&M) phase. Therefore, a detailed assessment of the effects of climate change on the O&M phase requires a more comprehensive review of the previous studies reported from different parts of the world. The paper provides a state-of-the-art review of the effects of extreme weather events and their impacts on the operation and maintenance of railway infrastructure. This paper also provides a list of vulnerable railway assets that can have an impact due to extreme weather events.

Scaling climate change experiments across space and time

Despite great promise for understanding the impacts and extent of climate change and extreme weather events on aquatic animals, their species, and ecological communities, it is surprising that electronic tagging and tracking tools, like biotelemetry and biologging, have not been extensively used to understand climate change or develop and evaluate potential interventions that may help adapt to its impacts. In this review, we provide an overview of methodologies and study designs that leverage available electronic tracking tools to investigate aspects of climate change and extreme weather events in aquatic ecosystems. Key interventions to protect aquatic life from the impacts of climate change, including habitat restoration, protected areas, conservation translocations, mitigations against interactive effects of climate change, and simulation of future scenarios, can all be greatly facilitated by using electronic tagging and tracking. We anticipate that adopting animal tracking to identify phenotypes, species, or ecosystems that are vulnerable or resilient to climate change will help in applying management interventions such as fisheries management, habitat restoration, invasive species control, or enhancement measures that prevent extinction and strengthen the resilience of communities against the most damaging effects of climate change. Given the scalability and increasing accessibility of animal tracking tools for researchers, tracking individual organisms will hopefully also facilitate research into effective solutions and interventions against the most extreme and acute impacts on species, populations, and ecosystems.

BACKGROUND: Island communities such as Puerto Rico (PR) are profoundly impacted by climate extremes. Patients with chronic disease, particularly cancer, have unique needs and challenges in the aftermath of extreme weather events. Understanding cancer patients’ barriers, knowledge, risks, and vulnerabilities are essential to develop equitable adaptation strategies. This research aims to investigate the perceptions and experiences of cancer patients associated with extreme weather events over the past 10 years in Puerto Rico (PR). METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study via survey questionnaires (April 22, 2023-June 8, 2023) among adults aged ≥21 years from Puerto Rico who are cancer patients/survivors (n=207). A total of 23 questions listed on the survey were used to collect information on variables of interest which included demographic characteristics, information on extreme weather event experiences, and attitude towards climate change. Using the data collected, descriptive statistics were used to describe the study population and multivariable logistic regression models were used to evaluate the associations of interest (IRB approval # 2023-04-101). RESULTS: The average age of individuals recruited is 56.3 years ±13.5 SD, 79.7% are female, 65.2% reported having additional chronic diseases, and 85.0% have more than a high-school education. Regarding extreme weather events, 99% of cancer patients and survivors reported floods, including coastal, fluvial, and urban floods, impacted their communities, 76% reported tropical cyclones impacted their residences and communities, and 72% reported extreme heat impacted both their residences and communities in the last 10 years. Additionally, the most common problems encountered in the aftermath of these extreme weather events were water (88.4%) and electricity service interruption (91.4%), as well as water (88.9%) and electricity service interruption (77.1%). Most participants reported feeling very and extremely worried about their health in the face of climate change (75.0%) and feeling concerned about climate change (85.0%). After adjusting for age, sex, and education, logistic regression models showed that participants with more than one cancer type were more likely to be worried about their health in the face of climate change (OR=2.40,95% CI=1.06-5.35). CONCLUSION: Study findings highlight the burden of extreme weather events and the problems encountered in the aftermath of such events on cancer patients in Puerto Rico. This population expresses concern and worry about climate change and their health, respectively. This information is important for cancer control and emphasizes the need for targeted interventions and management strategies to remove detrimental and avoidable impacts on cancer populations. Citation Format: Jimena Perez, Pablo A. Méndez-Lázaro, Fabiola A. Rivera-Gastón, Ana P. Ortiz. Assessing the impact of extreme climate weather events on cancer patients in Puerto Rico: A cross-sectional study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 16th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2023 Sep 29-Oct 2;Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2023;32(12 Suppl):Abstract nr A114.

"There are changes in the frequency, intensity, geographical distribution and duration of extreme weather and climate events, with the impact of global climate change. The increase in extreme weather and climate events will continue according to the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Accordingly, it is expected that there will be an increase in disasters caused by natural hazards. Although earthquakes are the most widely known nature-based disasters, disasters that occur due to severe and extreme meteorological events constitute a large part of nature-based disasters. As in the whole world, meteorological disasters have been occurring quite frequently in our country, which has large geographic and different climatic regions, and have resulted in serious losses of life and property during the recent periods. There has been a considerable increase in the number and the strength of meteorological disasters, especially after the 2000s. The transformation of severe and extreme meteorological events into disasters is a natural consequence of the failure of human systems to be prepared and take precautions against extreme weather and climate risks, as well as local or regional geographical factors such as incorrect settlement and incorrect land use practices. Experienced meteorological disasters and their consequences reveal the importance of considering forecasts and early warnings, being ready to overcome severe and extreme weather events before they turn into disasters, or even if they do, for the least possible damage, taking the right precautions in a timely manner. The prediction of atmospheric events has brought many conveniences because of the widespread use of High-Performance Computing Systems. With the prepared numerical weather prediction models, changes and atmospheric events that may occur in the atmosphere from minute to hour, from day to week can be predicted. It is also very important that the produced early warning products can be understandable by the public, as well as obtaining forecasts to reduce disaster hazards. Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS), which is a forecasting and early warning institution, presents the meteorological forecasts and early warnings it has prepared to the information of all public and relevant public institutions/organizations and continues its activities as the first part of the disaster risk reduction chain."

In 1990 and 1992 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its first assessment of climate change and its supplement, did not consider whether extreme weather events had increased in frequency and/or intensity globally, because data were too sparse to make this a worthwhile exercise. In 1995 the IPCC, in its second assessment, did examine this question, but concluded that data and analyses of changes in extreme events were ‘not comprehensive’and thus the question could not be answered with any confidence. Since then, concerted multinational efforts have been undertaken to collate, quality control, and analyse data on weather and climate extremes. A comprehensive examination of the question of whether extreme events have changed in frequency or intensity is now more feasible than it was 15 years ago. The processes that have led to this position are described, along with current understanding of possible changes in some extreme weather and climate events.

This chapter summarizes some of what is known about climate change in the Arab world and its impact on migration, with a focus on five countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, and Yemen. Migratory movements have a long history in the region, and migration decisions are influenced by a wide range of factors, many of which have nothing to do with climate change. But there is a broad consensus on the fact that factors related to climate change do contribute to migration. Such factors include more extreme weather events such as floods and droughts and the destruction they cause, as well as the effects of climate change on agricultural yields and water scarcity, among others. Understanding how climate patterns already impact migration today is important to inform not only government and other programs to help households cope with and adapt to climate change, but also a wide range of investment decisions which must anticipate future patterns of mobility and settlements. While important gaps in knowledge remain on the extent to which households are affected by climate change in the Arab world and whether climate change and extreme weather events have a large impact on migration decisions, the evidence base has been growing. This literature review summarizes the emerging literature on this topic, including insights from a recent study carried by the World Bank, AFD and Rand.