Effects of atmospheric heterogeneity on distant focusing overpressure risk assessments at coastal launch sites

Abstract

Distant Focusing Overpressure (DFO) is one of the well-established hazards associated with rocket launches. Under certain weather conditions, blast waves resulting from failed launches can subject the public to potential harm. DFO prediction methods rely on a legacy 1D weather assumption, where horizontal variations in the atmospheric conditions are neglected. Using high-resolution weather forecast models, we re-evaluate the effects of this legacy assumption on DFO risk assessments at four U.S. coastal launch sites.In our study, we compare the DFO risk results obtained from the current 1D weather assumption and a more realistic 3D environment. Signal detection theory determined when and where the 1D method was most inferior. This work strongly indicates that a 3D-based DFO software can improve public safety by better detecting potentially hazardous conditions, and increase launch availability by eliminating undue conservatism. These benefits will help vehicle operators and safety professionals dealing with an increased launch tempo and potentially high-explosive yield from a new generation of large rockets with methane fuel.