Abstract
We evaluated effectiveness of thermal passenger screening for 2019-nCoV infection at airport exit and entry to inform public health decision-making. In our baseline scenario, we estimated that 46% (95% confidence interval: 36 to 58) of infected travellers would not be detected, depending on incubation period, sensitivity of exit and entry screening, and proportion of asymptomatic cases. Airport screening is unlikely to detect a sufficient proportion of 2019-nCoV infected travellers to avoid entry of infected travellers.
Highlights
We simulated 100 2019-nCoV infected travellers planning to board a flight who would pose a risk for seeding transmission in a new region
We estimated the proportion of infected travellers who would be detected by exit and entry screening, develop severe symptoms during travel, or go undetected, under varying assumptions of: (i) the duration of travel; (ii) the sensitivity of exit and entry screening; (iii) the proportion of asymptomatic infections; (iv) the incubation period and (v) the time from symptom onset to hospitalisation (Table)
An individual will be detected at entry screening if their infection is symptomatic, their incubation period ends after their departure but before their arrival, they have not been detected at exit screening, and their entry screening result is positive despite imperfect sensitivity
Summary
Effectiveness of airport screening at detecting travellers infected with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). We estimated that 46% (95% confidence interval: 36 to 58) of infected travellers would not be detected, depending on incubation period, sensitivity of exit and entry screening, and proportion of asymptomatic cases. We use the available evidence on the incubation time, hospitalisation time and proportion of asymptomatic infections of 2019-nCoV to evaluate the effectiveness of exit and entry screening for detecting travellers entering Europe with 2019-nCoV infection. We simulate travellers with individual incubation period, time from onset to severe disease, flight start times and detection success at exit and entry screening according to the screening sensitivities (Figure 1). Table Parameter values and assumptions for the baseline scenario estimating effectiveness of exit and entry screening at airports for detecting passengers infected with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
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