Abstract
Due to the high complexity of detailed sector-coupling models, a perfect foresight optimization approach reaches complexity levels that either requires a reduction of covered time-steps or very long run-times. To mitigate these issues, a myopic approach with limited foresight can be used. This paper examines the influence of the foresight horizon on local energy systems using the model DISTRICT. DISTRICT is characterized by its intersectoral approach to a regionally bound energy system with a connection to the superior electricity grid level. It is shown that with the advantage of a significantly reduced run-time, a limited foresight yields fairly similar results when the input parameters show a stable development. With unexpected, shock-like events, limited foresight shows more realistic results since it cannot foresee the sudden parameter changes. In general, the limited foresight approach tends to invest into generation technologies with low variable cost and avoids investing into demand reduction or efficiency with high upfront costs as it cannot compute the benefits over the time span necessary for full cost recovery. These aspects should be considered when choosing the foresight horizon.
Highlights
With increasing efforts to transform the energy systems in order to face and mitigate climate change, planning horizons, solution space and exchange rate of technologies increase in many energy-system models
As a vast amount of literature has been published looking into energy system models at national as well as at distributed level, this literature review focuses on work especially dedicated to the influence of the time horizon and time steps in optimization models
The grid expansion decisions of the perfect foresight and myopic approach differ. Both of the expansion approaches only invest in grid capacities in the first optimization year (2020), but the myopic approach installs more connection and transformer capacities than the perfect foresight approach
Summary
Researchers as well as energy system planners work with simplifications and idealized approaches This boils down to a delicate balance between reducing the complexity and ensure solvability as well as a reasonable run-time with the available technical resources and the amount of detail required to generate a proper evaluation and assessment of energy system questions. When adding sector coupling to the problem the scope is doubled but could lead to an exponential increase of the variables within the mathematical problem This requires different approaches that lead to a reduction of the model run-time according to the available computational resources. The authors identified a knowledge gap in the local energy systems field as well as the sector coupling topic and whether a myopic approach can be suitable in certain scenario settings.
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