Effect of country characteristics and exogenous shocks on philanthropic impact: Opportunities for marketing strategy influence for nonprofits

The exogenous shock of the COVID-19 pandemic has changed familiar work-related categories organizing work and life in ways current theories of categories cannot fully explain. To understand these changes, we analyzed online conversations about COVID and work using a computational grounded theory approach to develop a theory of worker response to exogenous category shock. We explain the process through which workers perceive, evaluate, and respond to work-related category changes due to exogenous category shocks. Our research contributes to the category dynamics literature by going beyond gradual, planned, or intentional changes in categories to examine the effects of abrupt exogenous shocks that suddenly change categories. We theorize how the exceptionality, temporality, and contested nature of these changes in work-related categories influence workers’ evaluations and responses. Methodologically, we contribute to the growing field of interpretive data science in management research by using machine learning techniques to understand a complex and multi-dimensional textual corpus. Practically, our findings offer important insights for policy makers and organizations on consequences of a wide range of societal exogenous shocks such as pandemics, disasters, political upheaval, and war that disturb established categories.

This paper studies the impact of exogenous and endogenous shocks (exogenous shock is used interchangeably with external shock; endogenous shock is used interchangeably with domestic shock) on output fluctuations in post-communist countries during the 2000s. The first part presents the analytical framework and formulates a research hypothesis. The second part presents vector autoregressive estimation and analysis model proposed by Pesaran (2004) and Pesaran and Smith (2006) that relates bank real lending, the cyclical component of output and spreads and accounts for cross-sectional dependence (CD) across the countries. Impulse response functions show that exogenous positive shock lead to a drop in output sustainability for 9 over 12 Central Eastern European countries and Russia, when the endogenous shock is mild and ambiguous. Moreover, the effect of exogenous shock is more significant during the crises. Variance decompositions show that exogenous shock in the aftermath of crisis had a substantial impact on economic activity of emerging economies.

Purpose This study aims to discuss the interaction between exogenous shocks, time and institutional quality. The authors also explore the strategic responses of multinational enterprises (MNEs) to exogenous shocks and how they manage international expansion while considering the quality of their home institutions. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a theoretical approach of exogenous shocks, time and institutional quality, proposing that the duration required for an MNE to recover from exogenous shocks is influenced by the home country institutional quality, thereby shaping the relationship between exogenous shocks and time. Findings This research indicates that previous MNE experience, the learning process and the nature of exogenous shocks (both in terms of type, duration and impact) also significantly influence the response of MNEs. In addition, the authors propose that the home country moderates exogenous shocks for MNEs through channels, including the provision of high institutional quality, country-specific and firm-specific advantages. Research limitations/implications The contributions lay in adding to the existing body of knowledge on exogenous shocks by exploring beyond what is considered constant or nondisruptive. This provides valuable insights into the effects of exogenous shocks, and how their negative impacts over time can be alleviated through institutional quality. Originality/value This study is unique because it explores the dynamic relationship between exogenous shocks and time, two correlated topics that have not been jointly addressed in the international business literature. In addition, the quality of a country’s institutions helps explain this interaction, demonstrating how the dynamics affect the international strategies of MNEs.

Threshold Effects of Foreign Reserve Holdings in Developing Countries

Youth unemployment during economic shocks: Evidence from the metal-mining prices super cycle in Chile

It hardly takes a shrewd premier to keep a province from racking up debt when economic times are good, and it does not necessarily take a reckless government to accumulate debt when economic times are tough. What matters more, when assessing a government’s fiscal responsibility, is how policy decisions — as opposed to cyclical effects — influence a province’s debt ratio. With economically small provinces being especially vulnerable to exogenous shocks, the need to avoid chronic deficits and debt accumulation is particularly high, since minimizing deficit and debt at least improves the resilience of these provinces to recover from shocks when they do occur. An analysis of the provincial government finances of Canada’s four smallest provinces— P.E.I., New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Manitoba — finds that some are better at preparing for inevitable exogenous economic shocks. Taxpayers in Nova Scotia and P.E.I. in particular have legitimate reason to be worried. Taxpayers in New Brunswick and Manitoba can breathe a little easier, but both provincial governments have in recent years begun introducing policies that have reduced their potential for resiliency, too. From 1982–2008, New Brunswick’s governments — both Liberal and Progressive Conservative (PC) — were the most successful of the four provinces in keeping its operating account more or less in fiscal balance. However, to best manage future economic shocks the province will have to reverse a six-year string of sizeable policy-induced deficits amassed first under a Liberal government and more recently under a PC government. Currently, New Brunswick’s policies are doing more to increase provincial debt than are cyclical influences, by a factor of more than two. Manitoba also has one of the stronger records of the four provinces but labours under the burden of the consequences of a rapid accumulation of policy-induced debt incurred during the mid-1990s. Unfortunately, during the last three years of our period of analysis, policy-induced deficits have the province sliding in the wrong direction, adding 2.6 percentage points of GDP to its accumulated operating account deficit. Notably, there appears to be little difference between NDP and PC governments when it comes to policy-induced debt accumulation. The one distinction appears to be that the PCs have tended to begin governing by adding debt, and reducing it later, while the NDP has followed the opposite pattern. The record of P.E.I.’s policy decisions, meanwhile, has been the reverse of Manitoba’s: After managing to keep its debt in check for 20 years, the government since 1999 has added 11 percentage points of GDP to its accumulated operating account deficit almost entirely as the result of policy choices. Particularly worrisome is the recent rapid accumulation of debt between 2009 and 2014. In the meantime, Nova Scotia continues working to undo the risky policies of the “lost decade” from 1984 to 1994, where PC governments increased the debt ratio by nearly a third. In all four provinces the ability to keep debt ratios under control will depend heavily on constraining the growth in health-care spending. Health spending has soared in all provinces since 1999–2000, the most extreme case being in New Brunswick where the share of revenue spent on health has leaped from 25.4 to 35.9 per cent. Even if these provinces cannot change the fact that they are small and exposed, and are stuck with the specific economic risks that entails, they do have the ability to make policy choices that mitigate the length and severity of the effects of exogenous shocks. With three of the provinces (save P.E.I.) expected to enjoy faster growth in 2015, the work in better preparing their economies for shocks should begin right away.

It hardly takes a shrewd premier to keep a province from racking up debt when economic times are good, and it does not necessarily take a reckless government to accumulate debt when economic times are tough. What matters more, when assessing a government’s fiscal responsibility, is how policy decisions — as opposed to cyclical effects — influence a province’s debt ratio. With economically small provinces being especially vulnerable to exogenous shocks, the need to avoid chronic deficits and debt accumulation is particularly high, since minimizing deficit and debt at least improves the resilience of these provinces to recover from shocks when they do occur. An analysis of the provincial government finances of Canada’s four smallest provinces— P.E.I., New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Manitoba — finds that some are better at preparing for inevitable exogenous economic shocks. Taxpayers in Nova Scotia and P.E.I. in particular have legitimate reason to be worried. Taxpayers in New Brunswick and Manitoba can breathe a little easier, but both provincial governments have in recent years begun introducing policies that have reduced their potential for resiliency, too. From 1982–2008, New Brunswick’s governments — both Liberal and Progressive Conservative (PC) — were the most successful of the four provinces in keeping its operating account more or less in fiscal balance. However, to best manage future economic shocks the province will have to reverse a six-year string of sizeable policy-induced deficits amassed first under a Liberal government and more recently under a PC government. Currently, New Brunswick’s policies are doing more to increase provincial debt than are cyclical influences, by a factor of more than two. Manitoba also has one of the stronger records of the four provinces but labours under the burden of the consequences of a rapid accumulation of policy-induced debt incurred during the mid-1990s. Unfortunately, during the last three years of our period of analysis, policy-induced deficits have the province sliding in the wrong direction, adding 2.6 percentage points of GDP to its accumulated operating account deficit. Notably, there appears to be little difference between NDP and PC governments when it comes to policy-induced debt accumulation. The one distinction appears to be that the PCs have tended to begin governing by adding debt, and reducing it later, while the NDP has followed the opposite pattern. The record of P.E.I.’s policy decisions, meanwhile, has been the reverse of Manitoba’s: After managing to keep its debt in check for 20 years, the government since 1999 has added 11 percentage points of GDP to its accumulated operating account deficit almost entirely as the result of policy choices. Particularly worrisome is the recent rapid accumulation of debt between 2009 and 2014. In the meantime, Nova Scotia continues working to undo the risky policies of the “lost decade” from 1984 to 1994, where PC governments increased the debt ratio by nearly a third. In all four provinces the ability to keep debt ratios under control will depend heavily on constraining the growth in health-care spending. Health spending has soared in all provinces since 1999–2000, the most extreme case being in New Brunswick where the share of revenue spent on health has leaped from 25.4 to 35.9 per cent. Even if these provinces cannot change the fact that they are small and exposed, and are stuck with the specific economic risks that entails, they do have the ability to make policy choices that mitigate the length and severity of the effects of exogenous shocks. With three of the provinces (save P.E.I.) expected to enjoy faster growth in 2015, the work in better preparing their economies for shocks should begin right away.

Purpose This paper examines how oil supply shocks and monetary policy actions jointly affect wage inequality in the US, with a particular focus on the role of education. The study addresses three key questions: (1) how exogenous oil supply shocks influence wage inequality, (2) how exogenous monetary policy shocks shape income distribution, and (3) whether these effects differ within and between education groups, revealing the role of human capital in amplifying or mitigating inequality. Design/methodology/approach The analysis uses quarterly US data from 2000 to 2021. Wage inequality is measured using the Theil index constructed from CPS/BLS weekly earnings of full-time workers aged 25 and above, allowing additive decomposition into within- and between-education components (high school, bachelor's and advanced degree). Identification relies on exogenous oil supply news shocks and exogenous monetary policy shocks. A vector autoregression (VAR) framework is estimated, and impulse response functions trace the dynamic effects of both shocks on inequality over a 10-quarter horizon. Findings The results show that overall wage inequality increased by about 15% over the sample period, with roughly 75% driven by within-education dispersion rather than differences across education levels. Oil supply shocks significantly raise wage inequality, increasing dispersion within high-school and advanced-degree groups and widening inequality between education groups. In contrast, contractionary monetary policy shocks compress wage inequality, with the strongest effects observed among advanced-degree earners and a reduction in between-education wage gaps. Research limitations/implications This study focuses exclusively on the US due to data availability at a quarterly frequency, which limits the generalizability of the findings to other economies with different labor market institutions and energy dependence. Wage inequality is measured using CPS/BLS data for full-time workers, excluding self-employed and part-time workers, who may experience different distributional effects. The analysis is confined to education-based groupings and does not account for other dimensions of inequality, such as race, gender or industry. Finally, while exogenous shock measures are used, the VAR framework captures average dynamic responses and may not fully reflect nonlinearities or structural changes across different economic regimes. Practical implications The findings show that macroeconomic policies have important distributional effects. Oil supply shocks significantly increase wage inequality, especially within high-school and advanced-degree groups, implying that energy price volatility can worsen income dispersion. Policies that reduce exposure to oil shocks—such as energy diversification and strategic reserves—may therefore also help limit inequality. Monetary policy, while aimed at stabilizing inflation and output, affects income distribution as well: contractionary shocks compress wage inequality, particularly among highly educated workers. Since most inequality arises within education groups, education alone is insufficient; complementary labor market and earnings-stabilization policies are needed to mitigate the unequal effects of macroeconomic shocks. Originality/value This study is among the first to jointly analyze oil supply shocks and monetary policy shocks using exogenous identification while decomposing wage inequality by education. By highlighting heterogeneous distributional responses across education groups, the paper provides new insights into how energy shocks and stabilization policies interact with human capital to shape income inequality.

Exchange Rate Shocks and Inflation Comovement in the Euro Area

Exogenous shocks and the spillover effects between uncertainty and oil price

This paper analyzes the effects of exogenous shocks on long-term growth. Additionally, it analyzes episodes of growth acceleration and reversal in 33 sub-Saharan Africa countries over the period 1980–2016. Fixed effects and the generalized method of moments are used to assess the effects of exogenous shocks on long-term growth. The results show that the terms of trade, remittances, and world demand improve long-term growth, while aid reduces it. Growth acceleration and reversal episodes are identified using an improved variant of the filter developed by Hausmann et al. (2005. “Growth Accelerations.” Journal of Economic Growth 10: 303–329). We further used a probit model to evaluate how exogenous shocks affect both growth episodes. Our results show that a favorable shock on the terms of trade, foreign aid and world demand increases the probability of acceleration, while an unfavorable shock on the terms of trade, remittances and world demand increases the probability of a growth reversal. Moreover, we find that economic and political reforms precede growth accelerations. Finally, the results show that growth reversals are associated with higher inflation, lower domestic credit, and civil wars.

This paper examines the impact of two exogenous shocks – a 2018 technical incident that took place in Ontario, Canada, and the COVID-19 pandemic – on the administration of local elections in Ontario. Drawing upon survey and focus group data, this paper concludes that these two exogenous shocks affected the perception and adoption of online voting on the municipal level in differential ways. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic had a greater perceived effect upon the decision to adopt online voting than the 2018 technical incident. However, the perceived effects of the 2018 technical incident were just as likely to be felt in unaffected municipalities as they were in those that had been directly affected. Municipalities that had not used online voting in 2018 and medium-sized cities were more negatively affected by the 2018 technical incident. In contrast, the perceived effects of the COVID-19 pandemic did not hinge upon the previous use of online voting, city size, or the urban/rural divide.

Economic crises, natural disasters, armed conflict and infectious disease outbreaks, amongst others, present interlinked challenges for small businesses and have generated a recent wealth of research across varied fields. Therefore, this article outlines an analytical lens suggesting how SMEs experience shocks and crises that focuses on the interlinked nature of (i) the business, (ii) the shock and (iii) the response within a given context. We thematically draw out key trends, knowledge gaps and tensions and highlight promising research and engagement avenues for future scholarship and practice. We contextualise (i) how small businesses are distinct from large firms in how they experience shock and crisis events; (ii) how different types of crises impact small business; (iii) how shocks and crises shape SME-specific responses and (iv) how the COVID-19 pandemic as a ‘novel exogenous shock’ influences all of the above. We conclude by emphasising emerging knowledge avenues for future small business, shock and crisis research.

Exogenous oil supply shocks and global agricultural commodity prices: The role of biofuels

This work investigates how the COVID-19 outbreak has affected consumers’ green purchasing intention in the fashion industry. It examines how this exogenous shock has influenced the relationship between consumer green purchasing intention and its three relevant antecedents (environmental knowledge (EK), environmental concern (EC), eco-friendly behaviour (EFB)). A survey of 1433 Italian consumers was carried out. The data were analysed through a structural equation modelling method to evaluate the direct and indirect mediating effects of the COVID-19 shock on the relationship between green purchasing intention and its antecedents (i.e., EK, EC and EFB) by considering traditional and online purchasing channels. The results of the model confirmed a positive relationship between green purchasing intention and its antecedents. The COVID-19 pandemic was also found to positively mediate the relationship between green purchase intention and two out of its three antecedents (i.e., EK and EC) in both traditional and online purchasing channels. This paper contributes to the literature on sustainable consumption by assessing magnitude of the relationship between green purchasing intention and its antecedents, and the mediating role exerted by a complex exogenous shock such as the COVID-19 outbreak.