Abstract
One of the strategies of the European Green Deal is the increment of renewable integration in the civil sector and the mitigation of the impact of climate change. With a statistical and critical approach, the paper analyzes these aspects by means of a case study simulated in a cooling dominated climate. It consists of a single-family house representative of the 1980s Italian building stock. Starting from data monitored between 2015 and 2020, a weather file was built with different methodologies. The first objective was the evaluation of how the method for selecting the solar radiation influences the prevision of photovoltaic productivity. Then, a sensitivity analysis was developed, by means of modified weather files according to representative pathways defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The results indicate that the climate changes will bring an increment of photovoltaic productivity while the heating energy need will be reduced until 45% (e.g., in March) and the cooling energy need will be more than double compared with the current conditions. The traditional efficiency measures are not resilient because the increase of the cooling demand could be not balanced. The maximization of installed photovoltaic power is a solution for increasing the resilience. Indeed, going from 3.3 kWp to 6.9 kWp for the worst emission scenario, in a typical summer month (e.g., August), the self-consumption increases until 33% meanwhile the imported electricity passes from 28% to 17%.
Highlights
With rising temperatures, all countries are exposed to the effects of climate change [1].The built environment would be adaptable for fronting the most extreme events [2]
The maximum values of the distributions were equal to 389 W/m2, 411 W/m2, and 416 W/m2 for typical meteorological year (TMY), W4.5-50 and W8.5-50, respectively
The increase obtained for direct normal solar radiation (DNI) is in accordance with the study by Huber et al [49]; their calculations indicate that future (2035–2039) surface irradiances in Europe and Australia are likely to be increased compared to the past (1995–1999) by about +10% in DNI
Summary
All countries are exposed to the effects of climate change [1].The built environment would be adaptable for fronting the most extreme events [2]. As demonstrated by Diaz-Lope et al [3] for Spain, in more than 80% of cities, buildings are designed by taking into consideration an obsolete climatic classification that does not take into account the current or future climatic reality. Yassaghi and Hoque [4] found that the variations in the cooling energy use are relatively lower compared to heating energy use, when different models are used. Tootkaboni et al [5] concluded that morphed weather files have a relatively similar operation in predicting the future comfort and energy performance, but there is a discrepancy between them and the dynamical downscaled weather file. Soutullo et al [6] have found that both for insulated and not insulated buildings, the heating loads vary more than 80%; the increment of the cooling loads ranges between
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