Een model voor de voorspelling van de invloed van investeringsbeslissingen op de ontwikkeling van de onderneming

Abstract

This paper presents an econometric model for the purpose of forecasting simultaneously the time paths of a firm's plant, sales, debtors, capital disposal (own and borrowed), costs of various kinds, creditors, liquidities, profits and total investments, as functions of four exogenous variables (investment in plant, disuse of parts of the plant, wage rate and writing-off) and a few predetermined endogenous variables. More specifically, the consequences of alternative investment projects for financing are investigated. The equations for „explaining” items of the profit and loss account are quite good, but those for „explaining” items of the balance sheet appear to be less satisfactory. The model relates to small and medium-sized industrial firms operating on many small orders and not holding stocks (for instance, service industries) where wages are less than 60% of the out-of-pocket expenses.