Economics of land‐based carbon mitigation

The challenge facing society in the 21st century is to improve the quality of life for all citizens in an egalitarian way, providing sufficient food, shelter, energy, and other resources for a healthy meaningful life, while at the same time decarbonizing anthropogenic activity to provide a safe global climate, limiting temperature rise to well-below 2°C with the aim of limiting the temperature increase to no more than 1.5°C. To do this, the world must achieve net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. Currently spreading wealth and health across the globe is dependent on growing the GDP of all countries, driven by the use of energy, which until recently has mostly been derived from fossil fuel. Recently, some countries have decoupled their GDP growth and greenhouse gas emissions through a rapid increase in low carbon energy generation. Considering the current level of energy consumption and projected implementation rates of low carbon energy production, a considerable quantity of fossil fuels is projected to be used to fill the gap, and to avoid emissions of GHG and close the gap between the 1.5°C carbon budget and projected emissions, carbon capture and storage (CCS) on an industrial scale will be required. In addition, the IPCC estimate that large-scale GHG removal from the atmosphere is required to limit warming to below 2°C using technologies such as Bioenergy CCS and direct carbon capture with CCS to achieve climate safety. In this paper, we estimate the amount of carbon dioxide that will have to be captured and stored, the storage volume, technology, and infrastructure required to achieve the energy consumption projections with net zero GHG emissions by 2050. We conclude that the oil and gas production industry alone has the geological and engineering expertise and global reach to find the geological storage structures and build the facilities, pipelines, and wells required. Here, we consider why and how oil and gas companies will need to morph from hydrocarbon production enterprises into net zero emission energy and carbon dioxide storage enterprises, decommission facilities only after CCS, and thus be economically sustainable businesses in the long term, by diversifying in and developing this new industry.

No AccessCountry Environmental Analysis21 Jul 2023Colombia Country Climate and Development ReportAuthors/Editors: World Bank GroupWorld Bank Grouphttps://doi.org/10.1596/40056SectionsAboutPDF (4.4 MB) ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack Citations ShareFacebookTwitterLinked In Abstract: As Colombia navigates a complex path toward a richer and more equitable future, the country faces three critical climate transitions. First, it will need to transit from a climate-vulnerable to a more climate-resilient economy. Second, guided by its Long-Term Climate Strategy (LTS) and strong legal framework, which place it among the climate-goal leaders of the Latin America region, the country will need to navigate a transition to a net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy in the context of its stated goal for 2050. Third, in a world that will demand increasingly less of Colombia's primary exports—oil and coal—and more green products, it will need to engineer a transition in its economic model. This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores the opportunities for, and challenges to, achieving Colombia's development goals and its ambitious climate commitments, as well as the complementarities between the two. It explores how climate change and climate action would affect the country's growth and development and, in turn, how growth and development challenges would affect the achievement of its climate ambitions. The CCDR also investigates complementarities—specifically, how climate action could help Colombia achieve its development objectives, capture opportunities, support a just and inclusive transition, and protect its economy against longer-term risks from climate change and from the world's transition toward net zero GHG emissions. Previous book FiguresreferencesRecommendeddetails View Published: July 2023 Copyright & Permissions Related RegionsLatin America & CaribbeanRelated CountriesColombiaRelated TopicsEnvironmentMacroeconomics and Economic Growth KeywordsCLIMATE CHANGETRANSITIONCLIMATE RESILIENT ECONOMYNET ZERO GHGGREEN PRODUCTS PDF DownloadLoading ...

As public pressure to limit global warming continues to rise, governments, policy makers and regulators are looking for the most effective ways to achieve the target set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to keep the global temperature increase to below 1.5°C above pre‐industrial levels. This will require the world to move to net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, and numerous governments have committed to reach net zero by this date, or even earlier. It is widely recognised that achieving net zero at the state, country and regional levels will necessitate a systems-wide approach across all the major sources of GHG emissions, which include power generation, transport, industrial processes and heating. Land use is also critical with billions of trees needing to be planted and a change in the amount of meat eaten. There is a growing realisation that hydrogen has a vital role to play, particularly to decarbonise sectors and applications that are otherwise extremely difficult to abate, such as industrial processes, heavy duty freight movement, dispatchable power generation and heating applications. Hydrogen will also provide long-term (for instance seasonal) energy storage, enabling much greater uptake of renewable power generation, which itself is a key prerequisite of the clean energy transition. Hydrogen can play a role in the decarbonisation of all major segments, and this means it can facilitate cross-sector coupling, enabling the exploitation of synergies between different key parts of the economy. This article discusses the different production routes to low and zero carbon hydrogen, and its uses across numerous applications to minimise and eliminate carbon dioxide and GHG emissions, building a picture of the key role that hydrogen will play in the energy transition and the broader global move towards decarbonisation and climate stabilisation. An overview of some of the ongoing and planned demonstration projects will be presented, outlining the importance of such activities in providing confidence that the hydrogen approach is the right one for multiple geographies around the world and that there are technologies that are ready to be deployed today.

The Paris Agreement stipulates that global warming be stabilized at well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, with aims to further constrain this warming to 1.5 °C. However, it also calls for reducing net anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to zero during the second half of this century. Here, we use a reduced-form integrated assessment model to examine the consistency between temperature- and emission-based targets. We find that net zero GHG emissions are not necessarily required to remain below 1.5 °C or 2 °C, assuming either target can be achieved without overshoot. With overshoot, however, the emissions goal is consistent with the temperature targets, and substantial negative emissions are associated with reducing warming after it peaks. Temperature targets are put at risk by late achievement of emissions goals and the use of some GHG emission metrics. Refinement of Paris Agreement emissions goals should include a focus on net zero CO2—not GHG—emissions, achieved early in the second half of the century. While well-known for its temperature targets, the Paris Agreement also aims for net zero GHG emissions. IAM results reveal net zero GHG emissions are not always required to meet the temperature targets, and that net zero CO2 emissions are a more suitable aim.

Sustainability in anaesthesia and intensive care - an obligation to turn danger into opportunity.

The State of Washington, USA, has set a goal to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, the year around which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommended we must limit global warming to 1.5 °C above that of pre-industrial times or face catastrophic changes. We employed existing approaches to calculate the potential for a suite of Natural Climate Solution (NCS) pathways to reduce Washington’s net emissions under three implementation scenarios: Limited, Moderate, and Ambitious. We found that NCS could reduce emissions between 4.3 and 8.8 MMT CO2eyr−1 in thirty-one years, accounting for 4% to 9% of the State’s net zero goal. These potential reductions largely rely on changing forest management practices on portions of private and public timber lands. We also mapped the distribution of each pathway’s Ambitious potential emissions reductions by county, revealing spatial clustering of high potential reductions in three regions closely tied to major business sectors: private industrial forestry in southwestern coastal forests, cropland agriculture in the Columbia Basin, and urban and rural development in the Puget Trough. Overall, potential emissions reductions are provided largely by a single pathway, Extended Timber Harvest Rotations, which mostly clusters in southwestern counties. However, mapping distribution of each of the other pathways reveals wider distribution of each pathway’s unique geographic relevance to support fair, just, and efficient deployment. Although the relative potential for a single pathway to contribute to statewide emissions reductions may be small, they could provide co-benefits to people, communities, economies, and nature for adaptation and resiliency across the state.

Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. We show that following current policies this century would commit to a 45% tipping risk by 2300 (median, 10–90% range: 23–71%), even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 °C. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0 °C. Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the long term. Our results underscore that stringent emission reductions in the current decade are critical for planetary stability.

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is one of PTTEP's strategic pathways for the energy transition movement to become a low-carbon organization with sustainable growth and to achieve Net Zero Greenhouse Gas emissions within 2050 with an interim goal of a 30% reduction in GHG intensity by 2030. It will hence support a reduction in industrial and domestic emissions under Thailand's commitment at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)'s 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP26) to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 and net zero greenhouse gas emissions in 2065. CCS is the process of capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) from industrial sources before it releases to the atmosphere and permanently storing it in an underground geological formation. The sequestrated carbon will be properly managed and monitored for total safety.

The UK is legally committed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. We aimed to understand the potential impact on population health of two pathways for achieving this target through the integrated effects of six actions in four sectors. In this multisectoral modelling study we assessed the impact on population health in England and Wales of six policy actions relating to electricity generation, transport, home energy, active travel, and diets relative to a baseline scenario in which climate actions, exposures, and behaviours were held constant at 2020 levels under two scenarios: the UK Climate Change Committee's Balanced Pathway of technological and behavioural measures; and its Widespread Engagement Pathway, which assumes more substantial changes to consumer behaviours. We quantified the impacts of each policy action on mortality using a life table comprising all exposures, behaviours, and health outcomes in a single model. Both scenarios are predicted to result in substantial reductions in mortality by 2050. The Widespread Engagement Pathway achieves a slightly greater reduction in outdoor fine particulate matter air pollution of 3·2 μg/m3 (33%) and, under assumptions of appropriate ventilation, a greater improvement in indoor air pollution (a decrease in indoor-generated fine particulate matter from 9·4 μg/m3 to 4·6 μg/m3) and winter temperatures (increasing from 17·8°C to 18·1°C), as well as appreciably greater changes in levels of active travel (27% increase in metabolic equivalent hours per week of walking and cycling) by 2050. Additionally, the greater reduction in red meat consumption (50% compared with 35% under the Balanced Pathway) by 2050 results in greater consumption of fruits (17-18 g/day), vegetables (22-23 g/day), and legumes (5-7 g/day). Combined actions under the Balanced Pathway result in more than 2 million cumulative life-years gained over 2021-50; the estimated gain under the Widespread Engagement Pathway is greater, corresponding to nearly 2·5 million life-years gained by 2050 and 13·7 million life-years gained by 2100. Reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions is likely to lead to substantial benefits for public health in England and Wales, with the cumulative net benefits being correspondingly greater with a pathway that entails faster and more ambitious changes, especially in physical activity and diets. National Institute for Health Research and the Wellcome Trust.

Under its Vision 2030 targets, Saudi Arabia is working to steer the nation toward a sustainable future. The Kingdom has recently amplified its sustainability goals, announcing its intention to achieve net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2060. As part of this renewed commitment, Saudi Arabia aims to have 50% of its electricity capacity from renewable sources by 2030. This pledge reflects the country’s strategic move toward a greener and more sustainable energy landscape.

The environmental impacts, including those related to greenhouse gas emissions, of the construction and deconstruction of buildings come more and more into focus of governments and professional building owners. In new constructions these so-called embodied impacts are often more important than the environmental impacts during 50 years use phase. How did the environmental impacts caused by construction materials and building technologies and their supply chains change during the past three decades? What might be expected in the future? How did LCA contribute to the past development and how did LCA practice evolve during this period? Finally, are current LCA practices suited to support the transformation of the building stock towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions?In a first part, the past as well as the potential future development of the environmental impacts caused by the manufacture of selected key construction materials and their supply chains will be presented. The main measures which lead to lower impacts in the past and which will be needed to further reduce environmental impacts in the future will be named. Current trends will be assessed against their effectiveness to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions of buildings and the built environment.In a second part the history and evolution of LCI data collection and data management will be discussed. Several aspects will be covered such as information sources, modelling and methodology, environmental impacts (pollutants and resources) covered in the LCIs, IT resources and solutions, and information policies.

The methane imperative Key points Deep reductions in future methane (CH 4 ) emissions alongside carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are non-negotiable if we wish to limit global warming to well below 2C, let alone 1.5C, but action on CH 4 cannot substitute inaction on CO 2 : reaching at least net zero CO 2 emissions globally remains a prerequisite for limiting warming at any level. Net zero greenhouse gas emission targets applied to the sum of all gases remain a relevant tool to manage climate risks even though global CH 4 emissions do not have to be reduced to zero and net zero greenhouse gas emissions cannot be a universal prescription for all emitters. Only 13% of global CH 4 emissions are covered by targeted climate policies (whose effectiveness is unclear) compared with 53% of global total emissions.Stronger and more consistent policies are needed to motivate and regulate CH 4 emission reductions, requiring governments to engage with a broader range of stakeholders and to deploy a wider set of policy tools than for CO 2 and energy-centric climate policy.

Net zero greenhouse gas targets have become a central element for climate action. However, most company and government pledges focus on the year that net zero is reached, with limited awareness of how critical the emissions pathway is in determining the climate outcome in both the near- and long-term. Here we show that different pathways of carbon dioxide and methane—the most prominent long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases, respectively—can lead to nearly 0.4 °C of warming difference in midcentury and potential overshoot of the 2 °C target, even if they technically reach global net zero greenhouse gas emissions in 2050. While all paths achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goals in the long-term, there is still a 0.2 °C difference by end-of-century. We find that early action to reduce both emissions of carbon dioxide and methane simultaneously leads to the best climate outcomes over all timescales. We therefore recommend that companies and countries supplement net zero targets with a two-basket set of interim milestones to ensure that early action is taken for both carbon dioxide and methane. A one-basket approach, such as the standard format for Nationally Determined Contributions, is not sufficient because it can lead to a delay in methane mitigation.

This paper aims at exploring the economy-wide impacts of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 in Thailand. This study developed a recursive dynamic Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model of Thailand for the assessment. The macroeconomic impacts of Thailand’s net-zero GHG emission targets by 2050 are analyzed relative to its 2-degree pathway. Results indicate that Thailand should put more effort in GHG mitigation actions to achieve the emissions peak by 2025 and net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. Improvement in energy efficiency; increasing electrification; expanding renewable energy utilization; deploying green hydrogen; bioenergy; carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS); and behavioral changes are the key identified pillars of decarbonization to drive Thailand towards the pathways of net-zero emissions by 2050. Results show that there is a possibility of attaining net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 at the expense of an economic loss for Thailand. The gross domestic product (GDP) loss would be as high as 8.5% in 2050 to attain net-zero emissions. Lower productivity from the energy intensive industries such as petroleum refineries, coal and lignite mining, manufacturing industries, and transport are the key contributing sectors to the GDP losses. The price of carbon mitigation would shoot up to reach USD 734 per tCO2eq in 2050 from USD 14 per tCO2eq in 2025 to attain net-zero emissions in 2050.

This study analyzed energy and technological implications in the energy sector to attain net zero emissions in Thailand by 2050. The study used AIM/Enduse, a bottom-up type energy system model, as an analytical tool. A business-as-usual and a net zero emission scenario are analyzed. Net zero emission scenarios are assessed in terms of net zero greenhouse gas emissions (NZE-GHG). Results show that the GHG emissions from the energy sector in the BAU would reach 635 MtCO2e in 2050. Decarbonization of the energy sector and transition towards net zero emission by 2050 in Thailand would require rapid deployment of renewable energy sources like solar, wind and biomass. In net zero scenario, installed capacity of solar PV and wind for power generation in 2050 would reach 64 GW and 40 GW, respectively. In addition, this study assesses the role of green hydrogen in achieving net zero target. The 200 GW solar capacity would be required to produce green hydrogen for decarbonizing the transport, industrial as well as power sector. The high carbon sequestration from LULUCF sector in Thailand will make it possible to reach net zero emission with carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology in the energy sector. Additional bioenergy or CCS technologies will need to be deployed in the power sector if the renewables cannot be deployed to the desirable extent.