Economic impact of explosive volcanic eruptions: A simulation-based assessment model applied to Campania region volcanoes

Abstract

PLINIVS Study Centre of University of Naples Federico II has developed a methodology that aims to estimate, in probabilistic terms, the direct and the indirect economic impacts of a Sub-Plinian I or Strombolian type eruption of Vesuvius. The economic model has been implemented as a complementary tool of the Volcanic Impact Simulation Model, a tool developed at PLINIVS Center available to the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC) decision makers to quantify the potential losses consequent to a possible eruption of Vesuvius or Campi Flegrei. Along the expected time history of the eruptive event all the possible “direct costs” and the “factors” (indirect costs) impacting the economic growth in the event area have been identified. Each cost factor is built up through a specific algorithm that is fed by various providers, in order to run software that will estimate the global amount of economic damage from a volcanic event. The model does not include the economic evaluation of intangibles (e.g. human casualties), while the evaluation of damage to the local cultural heritage (historical buildings, archeological sites, monuments, etc.), is linked to the economic impact on tourism, estimated into indirect costs. The architecture of the model is based on a simulation logic, which allows an evaluation of different economic impact scenarios through input changes, allowing the model to be used as a tool to support the decision making process.